新兴市场未来可期的五大理由

    10年来，尽管发展中经济体增长迅猛，但发达经济体在全球最大企业的排行榜上仍然占据着主导地位。今年的《财富》（Fortune）世界500强排行榜上，75%的公司来自发达国家。如果不包括国有企业，这个数字将达到91%。现在，新兴经济体的增长速度正在放慢，这就是说来自这些地区的公司仍无法跻身世界500强。不过，不要马上把这些公司抛诸脑后。企业排名可能会发生重大变化，这一点需要认真对待，原因如下：

    全球经济局势正在发生转变：虽然国际货币基金组织（IMF）最近下调了新兴市场的增长预期，但它仍然认为2012-2018年的全球经济增长将主要来自这些国家和地区。许多行业的经济重心已经明显地向新兴市场转移。2000年，发达经济体占全球汽车产量和销量的85%，而现在发达和新兴经济体已经在汽车行业各占半壁江山，而且中国已经成为全球最大的汽车市场和首屈一指的增长引擎，动力要远远超过其他国家。就连制药等业务依然集中在发达市场的行业也开始意识到，如果让其他公司主导了新兴市场的销售和推广，它们就很可能再也无法重新夺回这些份额。

    现有500强企业反应迟缓：来自发达国家的跨国公司在世界500强中所占的比重可能下降的另一个原因是它们对全球经济增长趋势的变化一直反应迟缓。咨询公司麦肯锡（McKinsey）提供的数据显示，2010年，总部设在发达经济体的世界100强公司从新兴市场获得的收入只占各自总收入的17%——尽管新兴市场占全球GDP的36%而且可能在2025年之前为世界经济增长做出逾70%的贡献。同时，新兴市场公司比发达国家企业增长得快。从1999年到2008年，前者不仅在年均增速上超过后者——两类公司的增长率分别为22%和12%——它们在新兴市场中的增长水平更是胜过那些来自富有国家的公司，这两个数字分别为31%和13%。

    高层全球化水平不足：就高级管理层的结构而言，大公司的全球化水平甚至还不如它们的销售额。在财富世界500强中，375家公司来自发达经济体，而它们的首席执行官中只有4%来自新兴经济体。最近，麦肯锡针对西方国家主要公司的调查发现，这些公司职位最高的200名员工中，只有2%来自亚洲新兴市场。这是个大问题，因为一个人的眼光主要由他所来自的地区决定。当地公司带来的激烈竞争让聘用新兴市场顶尖人才变得困难起来。尽管可以通过将管理职位转移到新兴市场来填补这个人才缺口，但波士顿咨询公司（BCG）最近对大型跨国公司的调查显示，这些公司的20名最高层成员中只有9%身处新兴市场，而新兴市场在其收入中所占的平均比重则达到28%。

    长途贸易的潜在成本高昂：对发达国家的跨国公司来说，在新兴市场开展业务并不容易。和发达国家之间相比，发展中国家和发达国家签订自由贸易协议的可能性要低得多；而且发展中国家在法治、政治稳定性和腐败方面的问题要比发达国家严重得多。目前，新兴经济体在整体上所呈现的等级制度特征更为明显。就连地理特征也成了一种障碍：和发达国家之间的距离相比，发达国家到新兴市场的距离往往比前者长三分之一。更远的距离对所有的国际性互动都产生了不利影响，比如贸易、外商直接投资和信息交流。以美国为例，想想看，从那里向中国出口商品要比向加拿大出口商品远多少? 

    Despite rapid growth in developing economies over the past decade, advanced economies continue to dominate lists of the world's largest corporations, providing 75% of the companies on this year's Fortune Global 500 list, and fully 91% if one excludes state-owned firms. Now emerging economy growth is slowing, suggesting that companies from these economies will remain also-rans on the list. But don't count out these companies just yet. The possibility of a big shake-up in the corporate pecking order is worth taking seriously for a number of reasons:

    The global economy is shifting: Despite recently cutting emerging market growth rates, the IMF still forecasts that these countries will account for the bulk of global growth from 2012-2018. The center of economic gravity for many sectors has already made a big shift to emerging markets. In 2000 the auto industry manufactured and sold 85% of its products in advanced economies, but that split is now half-and-half between advanced and emerging economies, with China the largest single vehicle market in the world and by far the biggest source of global growth. Even sectors such as pharmaceuticals that still do most of their business in advanced markets are starting to realize that if they let others dominate sales and distribution in emerging markets, they'll probably never be able to win the share back.

    The incumbents are slow to respond: Another reason that advanced-country multinationals' share of the Global 500 list might shrink is that they have been slow to respond to this shift in global growth. According to McKinsey, 100 of the world's largest companies headquartered in advanced economies derived just 17% of their total revenue in 2010 from emerging markets -- though those markets accounted for 36% of global GDP and are likely to contribute more than 70% of global GDP growth through 2025. Emerging market companies are also growing faster than those from advanced nations. From 1999 to 2008 they not only grew more rapidly in developed markets -- 22% vs. 12% annually -- than companies from rich economies but outpaced them by even more in emerging markets: 31% vs. 13%.

    Lack of globalization at the top： When it comes to the makeup of their top management, large companies are even less global than they are with their sales priorities. Of the 375 companies from advanced economies in the Fortune Global 500, only 4% have CEOs from emerging economies. And a recent McKinsey survey of leading Western companies found that just 2% of their top 200 employees hailed from key Asian emerging markets. This is a major problem because perspectives are largely conditioned by where one is from. Hiring top talent in emerging markets has become difficult because of fierce competition from local firms. Although this talent gap could in principle be addressed by moving executives to emerging markets, according to a BCG survey of large multinationals, only 9% of the companies' top 20 leaders are located in these markets, vs. an average of 28% of their revenues.

    Long-distance trade can be costly: Doing business in emerging markets isn't easy for advanced nation multinationals. Developing nations are much less likely to have free-trade agreements with advanced economies than the latter are with each other, and rank significantly worse on rule of law, political stability and corruption. Culturally, emerging economies are generally more hierarchical. Even geography drives a wedge: On average, emerging markets tend to be more than one-third farther away from advanced markets than the latter are from each other. These greater distances dampen all kinds of international interactions: trade, FDI, or information flows. Consider from a U.S. perspective how much farther it is to export to China than Canada.