欧元忠实拥护者倒戈之谜

    自身劳动力成本过高，而德国强劲的生产率增长致使汽车和车床的单价不断下降。面对这样的差距，欧洲南部各国如今缺乏货币工具进行弥补。因此，在艾力伯看来，欧洲想要拯救欧元，只有一个选择。“在今后数年间，德国的物价需要比法国和意大利的上涨更快，才能让欧洲南北具有竞争力的出口商品的成本达到一致。”他表示，如果德国让自身的工资每年增长约3%（远远高于现在的增长率），这种方式就是可行的。这种做法可能会导致文化冲击，甚至政治动乱，但可以挽救经济局势。

    艾力伯说，如果这种情况没有出现，欧元将会遇挫。“欧洲南部的失业率将会高到让一些政治家都觉得‘无法忍受’，进而促使本国脱离欧元区。”他没有预测具体的时间，只说这可能要数年的时间。唯一的例外是希腊——艾力伯认为无论德国做什么，希腊脱离欧元区都已是势在必行。他承认自己考虑这个问题已经有四年时间了。他说：“希腊很快就会脱离欧元区。”

    我赞同艾力伯的观点：对欧元重燃的乐观态度公然藐视了糟糕的数据和亟需设法解除的经济束缚。上周四，我们得知欧元区的失业率已经连续第九个季度上升，达到了历史空前的12.2%。一旦一个中央机构需要管理截然不同的的经济体，同时规定货币价值，这些经济体的出口价格就会彻底乱套，而结局正如我们所见，一片荒凉。只有艾力伯提出的解决办法才能避免这种局面。全世界都在拭目以待。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正         

    The southern countries now lack the currency tool to compensate for the gap between their own excessive labor costs and the strong productivity growth that's lowering or flattening the wage bill per auto and lathe in Germany. Hence, says Aliber, Europe faces a single option to saving the euro. "German prices would need to rise more rapidly than French and Italian prices over a number of years to bring the cost of competing exports from the north and south into line," says Aliber. He says it's feasible if Germany allowed wages to grow at around 3% a year, far above today's increases. That would cause culture shock and perhaps political turmoil, but, he says, the economics would work.

    If that doesn't happen, says Aliber, the euro will fracture. "The unemployment rate in southern Europe will become so high that some politicians will say, 'This isn't tolerable' and will push to leave the euro." He's not guessing on the timing but says it will take years. The exception is Greece -- Aliber thinks its exit is inevitable no matter what Germany does but confesses he's thought that for four years. "Greece could go very quickly," says Aliber.

    I agree with Aliber that the renewed optimism on the euro defies both the dreadful numbers, and the economic straight jacket that somehow must be lifted. We learned on Thursday that unemployment in the eurozone rose for the 9th consecutive quarter, to an all-time record of 12.2%. When a central authority with powers over vastly different economies sets the values of their currencies, and hence the prices of their exports at levels that are drastically wrong, the end game is the devastation we're now witnessing. It can be avoided only by the solution Aliber advocates. The world is watching.