法国为什么输给了德国

    让我们进一步回顾一下历史。20世纪80年代中期，在社会主义总统弗朗索瓦•密特朗治下，法国经济做出了“正确转向”，采取了限制开支、裁减联邦公务员并停止国有化等做法——当时我就在法国。这些紧缩措施让法国成为德国的强大对手，而且带来了多年的强劲增长。从2001年到2005年，法国再次展现了强大的潜力，当时领导法国的是保守派总统雅克•希拉克和财政部长蒂埃里•布雷顿。不论你是否相信，2005年前后的法国在大多数方面都强于德国——失业率较低；债务占GDP的65%，水平适中而且跟德国差不多；增长率达到2%以上，和德国相当。

    随后，在尼古拉•萨科齐和弗朗索瓦•奥朗德的领导下，法国的经济形势急转直下，令人吃惊。法国的失业率达到11.1%，而德国的失业率只有6.7%。2014年债务将占法国GDP的95%，这是个危险的水平，比德国的债务/GDP比例高15个百分点。2012年，法国经济停滞不前，2013年将增长0.1%。德国2013年的增长率也不高，为0.4%，但区别在于德国工业在全球市场上的竞争力很强，法国工业却不是这样。和克鲁格曼教授的观点正好相反，法国的未来显得黯淡无光。为什么？这就是原因。

    1998年以来，法国在全球出口市场上的份额从7%下降到了3%。2004年至今，法国的出口型企业从12.4万个减少到了11.7万个；德国在这方面则实现了大幅增长，现在德国出口型企业的数量已经是法国的两倍。

    法国的问题在于成本。成本问题则来自两个方面：昂贵的劳动力和陈旧的生产设施。2005年以来，法国和德国的单位劳动力成本，或者说汽车、计算机等制造业的工资和福利分别上升了25%和7%。法国工人的生产率稍低于德国工人，但比后者挣得多。法国工人的每小时工资和福利约为35欧元，德国工人约为34欧元。

    需要注意的一个要点是，和全世界的劳动者相比，法国工人相当能干。研究机构Flash Economics指出，法国工人的生产率看起来很高的主要原因是，法国工人的工作时间是工业化国家里最短的。经济繁荣时，法国公司不愿意招人，原因是经济衰退时解雇员工的成本很高。因此，法国公司的员工数量往往偏少。

    真正地问题是法国企业的生产设施、供应链、仓库和计算机系统都很陈旧，原因是因为税赋过重，盈利不足以支撑新的资本品投资。因此，法国的整体生产率，也就是劳动力和生产设备的产出水平自20世纪90年代末以来就没有得到丝毫提升。

    平价汽车和钢材产品等大众化行业在法国所占的比例很高，成本问题因此特别严重。德国有奥迪和奔驰，法国则出产标致和雷诺。和德国善于制造的豪华轿车和机械工具相比，过于普通的法国产品对价格上涨的敏感性要高得多。就这样，较高的成本和不断上升的产品价格给法国的出口带来了沉重打击。

    过去，法国的竞争力问题从未带来过灾难，因为法国可以一直让法朗贬值。而今，欧元流通后，这条路走不通了。解决问题的办法包括减轻公司税负，降低福利带来的成本，从而使劳动力具有竞争力，并将利润重新交还给公司，让它们有钱修建最先进的工厂。可惜，克鲁格曼教授不会认同这样的做法。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie      

    Let's go back even further. In the mid-1980s, France made an economic "right turn" under Socialist President Francois Mitterrand -- I was there at the time -- into spending discipline, reductions in the federal workforce, and an end to nationalizations. The austerity program made France a formidable competitor to Germany and led to years of strong growth. In the early to mid-2000s, France demonstrated its powerful potential once again under conservative Jacques Chirac and his finance minister Thierry Breton. In the mid-2000s, France was, believe it or not, beating Germany on most metrics. Its jobless rate was lower, its debt-to-GDP was about the same at a modest 65%, and its growth rate matched its northern neighbor in the 2% range.

    What's happened since, under Presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande, is a shocking reversal of fortune. France's unemployment rate stands at 11.1%, vs. 6.7% in Germany. France's ratio of debt-to-GDP will hit 95%, a dangerous number, in 2014. That's 15 points above Germany. France grew at 0.1% in 2013 after posting 0% expansion in 2012. Germany's not growing much either at 0.4% for 2013. The difference is that Germany's industries are highly competitive on world markets, and France's are not. That's why, contrary to Krugman's arguments, France's future looks bleak.

    Since 1998, France's share of global exports has fallen from 7% to 3%. The number of companies selling goods abroad has declined from 124,000 to 117,000 since 2004, compared to a big increase in Germany, which now boasts twice as many exporters as its neighbor.

    For France, the problem is costs, and that problem divides into two categories: expensive labor and old plants. Since the mid-2000s, the cost in wages and benefits of making a car or computer, unit labor costs, have risen 25% in France and 7% in Germany. French workers are also somewhat less productive than German workers. But French workers earn more than their German counterparts, around 35 euros an hour in wages and benefits versus 34 euros for the Germans.

    It's important to note that French workers are quite productive compared to their global counterparts. The research firm Flash Economics points out that the main reason the productivity numbers look good is that French workers toil fewer hours than those of any other industrial nation. Companies are reluctant to hire workers in good times because of the high costs of laying them off in recessions. Hence, they tend to operate with lean workforces.

    The real problem is that the plants, supply chains, warehouses, and computer systems are antiquated. The reason is that overtaxed corporations lack the earnings to invest in new capital equipment. As a result, France's total productivity -- output for its use of labor and plants -- has shown no increase whatsoever since the late 1990s.

    The cost problem is especially serious because France is heavily concentrated in commoditized industries, including inexpensive cars and steel products. Germany sells Audis and Mercedes; France sells Peugeots and Renaults. Because French products are so ordinary, they're far more sensitive to higher prices than the luxury cars and machine tools that are Germany's specialty. Hence, higher costs, and rising prices, hit France's exports hard.

    In the past, France's competitiveness issue never careened into disaster because it could always devalue its currency. Today, under the euro, that option is gone. The solution is reducing taxes on business and lowering benefits costs to make labor competitive and restore the profits that would allow companies to build state-of-the-art plants. Unfortunately, that's a course of action of which Krugman wouldn't approve.