欧洲经济好转之前还会进一步恶化

    但德拉吉表示，他还有整整一弹药库的武器可以用来抗击欧洲面临的通胀威胁。其中之一就是照搬美联储的量化宽松政策——买入债券并以现金取而代之。另一件武器则是把目前处于零点的存款准备金率降至零以下。负准备金率意味着央行将向缴纳准备金的商业银行收取存放费用。这样做的目的是希望商业银行能从欧央行那里取出资金，把它们贷给企业和消费者。

    说到底，欧央行能做的也只有这些。货币政策不能修复经济，只能让它维持下去。银行必须放贷，个人和企业必须投资，否则整个经济体系最终就会被自己压垮。

    有些经济学家相信，要让经济运转起来，就得出台更多的财政刺激措施（即提高各国政府的开支水平），但希腊和葡萄牙等诸多欧洲国家仍在削减开支。而且，具有讽刺意味的是，让它们这样做的正是欧洲央行。只有法国政府逆势而动，继续疯狂地花钱。

    但财政支出并不是什么灵丹妙药。欧洲的商业信心如此低迷，很大一部分原因就是法国等一些国家不仅继续出现巨大的预算赤字，还债台高筑。这种情况提高了违约风险，而违约才是经济灾难的真正源头。在这种情况下，能把资金投入石油行业或者纽约房地产市场的人为什么还要对法国等可能正坐在经济定时炸弹上的国家投资呢？

    不论喜欢与否，欧洲都需要堵住政府身上的漏洞，这里说的政府既包括各国政府，也包括超国家机构。欧元区的财政局势支离破碎，每个国家都自行决定如何征税，如何开支，这种局面维持不了多久。问题在于欧洲距离财政一体化的目标还很遥远。两年前欧洲领导人就已商定，要实现银行业一体化，同时建立统一的存款机制，而今这个目标仍然没有成为现实。要给欧洲银行体系注入信心还有很长的路要走。除了一体化，还需要通过诸多必要的调整来振兴欧洲，其中既包括劳动力制度改革，也包括税收政策。

    因此，马里奥•德拉吉可以把利率降到零，甚至还可以实行负利率，但这对治愈欧洲这位病人来说毫无裨益。欧洲需要的重大改革最终要由它的政府机构来实施，而不是欧央行。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie      

    Yet Draghi claims that he still has an "arsenal" of weapons by which he could fight off Europe's deflationary demons. One is to copy the Federal Reserve's "quantitative easing" program and begin buying bonds and replacing them with cash. Another arrow in his quiver would be to lower the rate at which banks can park their reserves with the ECB below the current rate of zero. By making the deposit rate a negative number, the ECB would essentially be charging banks money to park their reserves in its vault. The hope is that this would encourage them to take their money out of the ECB and lend it to businesses and consumers.

    In the end there is only so much the ECB can do here. Economies can't be healed through monetary policy, they can only be maintained. Banks need to lend, and people and businesses need to invest, or else the whole system will eventually collapse in on itself.

    To get things going, some economists believe there needs to be more fiscal stimulus (increased government spending on the national level), but many European countries, like Greece and Portugal, continue to cut spending, ironically at the direction of the ECB. France is bucking the trend and continuing to spend like mad.

    But fiscal spending is no panacea, either. Much of the reason why business confidence in Europe is so low is because countries like France continue to run large budget deficits while also carrying massive debt loads. This increases default risk -- the true mother of economic calamities. Given this, why invest in somewhere like France, which could be sitting on an economic time bomb, when you can invest it in oil or New York City real estate?

    Like it or not, Europe needs to fix its broken government at both the national and supranational levels. The eurozone's fragmented fiscal situation, where each country decides how to tax and spend, isn't going to work in the long run. The problem is Europe isn't even close to this point in its integration. It has been two years since European leaders agreed to unify the continent's banking system and create a universal deposit scheme, and it still hasn't happened. This would go a long way to inject confidence in the eurozone banking system. Beyond a banking union there is a whole host of changes necessary to get Europe back on its feet, ranging from labor reform to tax collection.

    So Mario Draghi can cuts rates to zero, he can even cut them below zero, and it won't do a lick of good to cure this sick patient. Europe needs major reform and that ultimately needs to come from Brussels, not Frankfurt.