伊朗核问题协议出炉，但华尔街高兴得太早

    奥巴马政府表示，这份协议“作用有限，是权宜之计，它所缓解的矛盾可能重新激化”，这番表态基本上体现出了这份协议到底有多差劲。它允许伊朗继续出口石油，但只限于六个国家，而且日出口量只有约100万桶，比伊朗的出口能力低150万桶。美国政府估算，依然生效的制裁措施将使伊朗政府每个月损失50亿美元（306.5亿元人民币）左右。伊朗从去年开始遭到更为严厉的制裁，迄今已蒙受原油出口损失800亿美元（4904亿元人民币）。此外，伊朗在全球各地的约1000亿美元（6130亿元人民币）外汇资产（此前曾被其他国家用于购买石油）仍将处于冻结状态。

    伊朗得到的实惠是一大堆减轻制裁的条款。美国政府估算，这将使伊朗的收入增加70亿美元（429.1亿元人民币）左右。虽然这不是个小数目，但它很难弥补继续进行铀浓缩活动给伊朗带来的损失。协议同时取消了伊朗在出口化工产品和黄金等贵金属方面所受的限制。但目前还不清楚伊朗可以出口多少黄金，因为今年6月份加强黄金进口制裁前，伊朗曾以石油换取大量黄金，美国方面当然希望确保伊朗不会故技重施。除了增加收入外，美国及其盟友出于自身利益考虑，还为亦敌亦友的伊朗兄弟提供了一些额外优惠。比如说，放松限制后伊朗可以从美国（波音，Boeing）和欧盟（空中客车，Airbus）进口商用飞机零部件。显然，美国和欧盟可以既促和平，又兴贸易。

    伊朗国内将这份协议视为一项谨慎的初步措施，目的是减轻制裁措施对本国货币的不利影响。据伊朗国内消息人士透露，去年的制裁生效以来，伊朗里亚尔兑美元的市场价已经暴跌了80%，严重扭曲了伊朗国内的资产价格。这些消息人士同时还表示，伊朗的通胀率一直维持在40%左右。

    显然，伊朗发展核技术的远大目标让伊朗民众苦不堪言。不过，局势还没有坏到在德黑兰的大街小巷激起民众抗议的程度。到目前为止，伊朗的武装力量看来一直处于戒备状态，而且对伊朗精神领袖阿亚图拉•哈梅内伊忠心耿耿。

    那么伊朗为什么在这个时候决定进行谈判呢？奥巴马政府会说，是蒙受更沉重经济损失的风险迫使伊朗领导人坐到了谈判桌旁。但伊朗已经在制裁中挺立了10年，其中两年的制裁损失接近1000亿美元（6130亿元人民币）。是因为伊朗人极端固执呢？还是因为目前受到威胁的东西比伊朗使用核能的权力更加重要？如果真的像以色列所坚信的那样，伊朗发展核武器的场所并不为IAEA和美国所知，那么，在这种情况下和伊朗签署协议就毫无意义，因为这样做并不能实现防止伊朗掌握核武器的目标。

    如果在伊朗发现新的核燃料浓缩场所，和谈就会戛然而止。相反，如果谈判进展顺利而且即将达成协议，以色列就可能选择单独行动，从而起到推波助澜的作用。因此，对中东地区和市场来说，今后六个月的局势很可能会更不安稳，而不是趋于平静。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie                        

    The agreement, which the Obama Administration refers to as "Limited, Temporary, Reversible Relief," is pretty much as terrible as that moniker suggests. Iran will still be allowed to export oil to just six countries, at capped amounts that add up to around 1 million barrels a day, which is 1.5 million barrels a day below the country's export capacity. The U.S. government estimates that continued sanctions will cost the Iranian government around $5 billion a month. So far the Iranian government has given up an estimated $80 billion in lost oil sales since the enhanced sanctions went into effect last year. In addition, around $100 billion of Iranian foreign exchange assets (used to purchase oil in the past by other nations) will remain frozen across the globe.

    What Iran does get is a hodge-podge of sanction relief, which the U.S. government estimates will add about $7 billion in extra revenue to Iran's coffers. While that figure is nothing to sneeze at, it hardly makes up for the billions of dollars that the government is giving up by keeping its nuclear program going. Restrictions on the sale of petrochemicals, gold and other precious metals were also lifted. It is unclear how much gold Iran will be allowed to trade, though, as the U.S. will want to make sure Iran isn't just swapping oil for gold as it had been in large amounts before sanctions on gold imports tightened in June of this year. In addition to the extra revenue, the U.S. and its allies also offered a few self-serving perks to their new Iranian frenemies. For example, one eases restrictions on the importation of commercial aircraft parts from the U.S. (Boeing (BA)) and E.U. (Airbus). Apparently, the U.S. and E.U. can promote peace and business at the same time.

    Inside Iran the deal is being seen as a cautious first step to alleviating the damaging impact the sanctions have had on the nation's currency. Since the sanctions began last year, the street price of Iran's currency is down as much as 80% to the dollar, creating massive distortions in asset prices throughout the country, according to sources inside Iran. At the same time, inflation is hovering somewhere around 40%, these people say.

    Iran's nuclear ambitions have clearly caused a lot of headaches for the Iranian people. Nevertheless, things haven't gotten so bad to cause widespread civil disobedience on the streets of Tehran. For now, Iran's security forces appear vigilant and fully committed to the nation's leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

    So why has Iran decided to talk now? The Obama Administration would say that the threat of further economic pain is what forced Iran's Mullahs to the bargaining table. But the nation has endured 10 years of sanctions, two of which have cost Iran nearly $100 billion in lost revenue. Are the Iranians just incredibly stubborn or is there something greater at stake here than Iran's "right" to use nuclear energy? If Iran is developing nuclear weapons, as Israel believes wholeheartedly, it is doing so at a site that is unknown to the IAEA and the U.S. As such, any agreement made with Iran would be futile as it fails to achieve the objective of denying nuclear weapons to Iran.

    Discovery of a new nuclear enrichment site could bring the negotiations to a screeching halt. On the other hand, if all goes well and a deal is imminent, Israel may choose to take matters into its own hands, rocking what is an already shaky situation. That's why the next six months will probably be more, not less, volatile, for both the Middle East and the markets.