中移动入选基金经理推荐的20大金股
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Expedia 史蒂文•波拉克有三条选股标准：价值要有吸引力；要属于优质行业，有着诱人的自由现金流和资本回报率；还要有一个立即买入的理由，比如走势良好或者存在推高股价的催化剂。波拉克说，在线旅行服务供应商Expedia“完全满足这三条要求”。他管理的John Hancock自律型价值中盘股基金（John Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund，交易代码：JVMAX）5年来的年均回报率为28.8%，而标普400中盘股指数在这期间的回报率为27.3%。按照2014年预期每股收益计算，Expedia目前的市盈率为16倍，远低于主要竞争对手Priceline（交易代码：PCLN，《财富》500强）的22倍。2013年1-9月份Expedia实现自由现金流7.40亿美元，收入同比增长15%。此外，波拉克看好的一点是Expedia和Priceline正在形成寡头垄断，这会遏制新的竞争。他还看到了一些潜在催化剂。Expedia控股Trivago和艺龙（eLong），这两家旅行网站在欧洲和中国市场很受欢迎。波拉克说：“Trivago和艺龙都有极好的成长机会，而且二者都有可能开发衍生业务。” --J.B. |
Expedia Steven Pollack Steven Pollack has three criteria when selecting a stock. The valuation should be enticing; it should be a quality business with attractive free cash flow and return on capital; and there should be a reason to buy the stock now, such as positive momentum or a catalyst to push the stock price higher. Expedia, the online travel firm, "fits all three," says Pollack, whoseJohn Hancock Disciplined Value Mid Cap Fund (JVMAX) has a 28.8% average annual return over five years, vs. 27.3% for the S&P's Midcap 400 index. Expedia trades at 16 times projected 2014 earnings, well below archrival Priceline's P/E ratio of 22. Expedia reported $740 million in free cash flow during the first nine months of 2013, and revenues are growing at a 15% annual clip. Beyond that, Pollack likes the fact that Expedia andPriceline (PCLN, Fortune 500) are becoming an oligopoly, which will discourage new competition. Pollack also sees potential catalysts. Expedia holds controlling stakes in Trivago and eLong, popular travel sites in Europe and China, respectively. "Both Trivago and eLong have significant growth opportunities," Pollack says, "and both could potentially be spun out." --J.B. |
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Technip 莎拉•科特尔管理着规模为45亿美元的Causeway国际价值基金（Causeway International Value Fund，交易代码：CIVVX），最近她所青睐的是能源股，部分原因是能源板块一直处于落后状态。这只基金过去5年的年均回报率为21.2%，高于同类基金16.3%的整体水平。科特尔认为，能源股表现乏力是因为人们过度担心中国的情况，“中国的发展速度正在放慢，但仍然需要大量能源。”目前她看好的股票是从事深水油气管道铺设的Technip。按2014年预期盈利水平计算，Technip目前的市盈率只有13倍。分析师预计，这家公司2014年利润将猛增27%。Technip的股息收益率为2.1%。10月份以来，Technip的股价下跌了15%，科特尔认为这是受到了同类企业的拖累，原因是该公司两大对手的盈利情况非常令人失望。深水管道铺设是Technip的核心业务，但科特尔认为另一项业务将为它带来长期高额收益。考虑到页岩气在美国的蓬勃发展，她认为美国最终将向欧洲输出液化天然气。Technip修建的工厂可以将天然气液化，或者将液化天然气气化。科特尔说：“他们在这方面是世界上最好的公司。” --J.B. |
Technip Sarah Ketterer, manager of the $4.5 billion Causeway International Value Fund(CIVVX), is a fan of energy stocks these days, in part because they've lagged. Ketterer, whose fund has averaged 21.2% annual returns over the past five years, vs. 16.3% for its category, blames exaggerated concerns about China for the anemic stock performance: "China is slowing down, but its demand for energy is still very high." Her favorite stock today is Technip, which lays deepwater oil and gas pipelines. The stock trades at a mere 13 times expected 2014 earnings, which analysts project to gush 27%; Technip also offers a 2.1% dividend yield. The stock has slumped 15% since October, and Ketterer blames guilt by association, as two Technip rivals suffered big earnings disappointments. Deepwater pipe-laying is Technip's core business, but Ketterer thinks another specialty will provide long-term windfalls. Given the shale gas boom in the U.S., she expects the country will eventually ship liquefied natural gas to Europe. Technip builds plants that convert natural gas to LNG and LNG back to gas. "They're the best at it in the world," says Ketterer. --J.B. |
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Green REIT Green REIT是爱尔兰历史上第一只房地产投资基金，是一个好的投资故事。这是一只崭新的证券，没有任何历史，因此由埃德温•卢戈这样一位顶尖基金经理来讲述这个投资故事非常有利。他管理着规模为15亿美元的富兰克林国际小盘股成长型基金（Franklin International Small Cap Growth Fund，交易代码：FINAX），5年来的回报率为25.7%（见上图），在外国股票基金领域处于前2%的位置。实际上，Green REIT是爱尔兰房地产领域的一只秃鹫基金。金融危机期间，爱尔兰商业房地产价格下跌了65%。因此，爱尔兰政府以及多家银行最终持有的是760亿欧元失去赎回权的房地产和贷款。为加快复苏步伐，爱尔兰通过了允许设立房地产投资信托基金（REIT）的法律。7月份，Green REIT成了爱尔兰的第一只REIT。卢戈说：“房地产管理并不属于银行业务”，因此它们愿意“以巨大的折扣”进行转让。这看起来是个绝佳时机。10月份，爱尔兰商业地产价格出现了2007年以来的首次上涨，此时Green REIT刚刚以大幅折扣买了第一批美国房地产。卢戈认为：“在房地产市场抄底的机会非常少，而且爱尔兰的经济已经开始好转。” --J.B. |
Green REIT Edwin Lugo Green REIT, Ireland's first-ever real estate investment trust, is a good story. It's also a brand-new stock with no history, so it helps that the storyteller is a premier manager: Edwin Lugo, whose $1.5 billion Franklin International Small Cap Growth Fund (FINAX)has returned 25.7% a year over the past five years (see chart above), putting it in the top 2% of its foreign stock-fund category. Green REIT is essentially a vulture fund for Irish real estate. Commercial property prices fell 65% during the financial crisis. As a result, the Irish government and various banks ended up holding €76 billion in foreclosed properties and loans. To speed the recovery, Ireland passed a law permitting REITs; in July, Green became the first to launch there. "Banks are not in the business of managing property," says Lugo, so they're willing to sell "at a huge discount." The timing looks excellent. Irish commercial property prices rose in October for the first time since 2007, just as Green made its first purchases at big discounts to U.S. properties. "It's rare you get a chance to buy real estate at the bottom," says Lugo, who notes that "the Irish economy is already turning around." --J.B. |
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大众公司 吉姆•莫菲特感兴趣的是那些不再受青睐的股票。10年来，这种投资方法给Scout国际基金（Scout International Fund，交易代码：UMBWX）带来了9.3%的年化回报率，比外国股票指数的回报率高1.6个百分点。最近，这样的思路让莫菲特把目光投向了汽车板块。他对大众公司（Volkswagen）特别乐观，原因是后者的表现一直“落后于整个板块”，但已经为再次崛起打好了基础。莫菲特指出，大众最近停滞不前，部分原因是欧洲经济低迷，另一部分原因是和汽车行业“不同步”。他特别提到，大众一直没有在美国推出具有广泛吸引力的高端产品。不过，现在欧洲经济有了一些好转迹象，大众也计划在明年推出新产品。莫菲特说，同时，大众正在通过模块化制造策略削减成本，他预计这项措施明年就会见效。他的结论是，市场最终会看到这些改善，目前2013年预期市盈率为9倍的大众将赶上市盈率10.5倍的宝马（BMW）和11.5倍的戴姆勒（Daimler）。--S.M. |
Volkswagen Jim Moffett Jim Moffett gravitates to out-of-favor stocks, an approach that has delivered an annualized 9.3% for a decade (UMBWX), outperforming the foreign stock index by 1.6 percentage points a year. Lately Moffett's thinking has driven him to the auto industry. He's especially optimistic about Volkswagen because the German automaker has been "lagging the pack" while laying the groundwork for a resurgence. The automaker's recent stall, he says, is partly a reflection of Europe's woeful economy and partly a result of being "out of sync" with the industry. In particular, he says, VW has lacked broadly appealing high-end offerings in the U.S. Now, though, the European economy is showing hints of improvement, and VW plans to roll out new products next year. Meanwhile, he says, the company is reducing costs with its modularized manufacturing strategy, which he expects to show results in the next year. The upshot, Moffett says: The market will eventually perceive the improvement, and VW's stock, currently trading at nine times 2013 expected earnings, will catch up to BMW and Daimler, which have P/Es of 10.5 and 11.5, respectively. --S.M. |
