中移动入选基金经理推荐的20大金股
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Ezion Holdings 大卫•森普尔管理的Van Eck新兴市场基金（Van Eck Emerging Markets，交易代码：GBFAX）规模为1.90亿美元，在能源股投资方面具有优势。他还管理着两只大宗商品基金，聘请了一批石油和天然气专家为他出谋划策。得益于这些措施，这只以能源股为主的基金过去5年的年均回报率达到了29.1%，在同类基金中处于前1%的行列。森普尔目前看好Ezion Holdings，这是一家设在新加坡的油田服务公司（美国投资者可以通过Fidelity和E*Trade买卖这只股票）。森普尔预计，东南亚未来的石油需求将上升。对他来说，Ezion Holdings的吸引力在于盈利增长（2013年上半年增幅为95%）、估值适中（动态市盈率8倍）和独特的利基环境。森普尔说：“这个地区的石油需求显然非常旺盛，而这家公司似乎处在这个市场的中心。” Ezion Holdings拥有并经营着世界上最大的“救生船”队——这些船只用于为浅水海上石油平台提供服务和进行维修。森普尔认为，亚洲市场服务供给不足。和美国墨西哥湾地区相比，在亚洲为石油平台提供服务的救生船只有前者的七分之一。-J.B. |
Ezion Holdings David Semple David Semple, manager of the $190 million Van Eck Emerging Markets Fund (GBFAX), enjoys an edge when it comes to energy stocks. His fund family includes two commodity funds, and it employs a team of oil and gas experts whom Semple can tap. That has helped his energy-heavy fund tally a 29.1% average annual return over the past five years, putting it in the top 1% of its category. Semple's current favorite: Ezion Holdings, an oil-services company based in Singapore (but available to U.S. investors through the likes of Fidelity and E*Trade). Semple is betting on rising oil demand in Southeast Asia, and Ezion's earnings growth (up 95% in the first half of 2013), modest valuation (a forward P/E of 8), and unique niche appeal to him. Says Semple: "Oil demand from this region is clearly very strong, and this company seems to be at the center of it." Ezion owns and operates one of the world's largest fleets of "liftboats" -- vessels used to service and repair shallow-water, offshore oil platforms. According to Semple, the Asian market is underserved, with one-seventh the ratio of liftboats to oil platforms compared with the Gulf of Mexico. --J.B. |
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中国移动 长期以来被视为狭隘的分红型股票近几年颇受青睐。这些股票的走势起起伏伏，但有件事一直没变：布莱恩•麦克马洪的业绩总是保持领先。他的Thornburg投资收益积累基金（Thornburg Investment Income Builder，交易代码：TIBAX）规模为160亿美元，10年来的年化回报率为10%，比标普500指数以及同类型的“全球配置”基金的表现高2个百分点。中国移动是全球最大的电信公司，很对麦克马洪的胃口。它的股息收益率为4.3%，过去5年的年增长率为6%，而且还有上升空间。麦克马洪说投资者一直在打压这只股票【该公司在美国发行了美国存托凭证（ADR）】，原因是中国政府在电信行业广泛采用国产4G技术前就强制中国移动采用这项技术并投入大量资金。他指出，好消息是这项技术看来前景光明而且就要投入使用。“不久他们就会拥有最宽的频带，最多的基站，而且还能率先先使用这项伟大的新技术。”这会产生什么结果呢？麦克马洪预计，中国移动的股价/息税折旧摊销前利润比率将从目前的3.5倍升至2015年的4.5倍。这有可能让它的股价出现40%甚至更高的增长。--S.M. |
China Mobile Long viewed as frumpy, dividend stocks enjoyed a vogue in recent years. The category has waxed and waned, but one thing has remained constant: Brian McMahon's outperformance. His $16 billion fund (TIBAX) has turned in annualized 10% returns for 10 years, more than two percentage points above results for the S&P 500 and his "world allocation" peers. China Mobile, the world's largest telecom, follows his template. The stock's dividend yields 4.3%, and it has grown at 6% annually for the past five years. But there's more upside. McMahon says investors have punished the stock (which trades as an ADR in the U.S.) because the Chinese government has forced the company to adopt -- and invest heavily in -- the country's homegrown 4G technology before it was widely used by the telecom industry. The good news, he says: The technology looks promising and is about to launch. "Soon they'll have the most spectrum, the most base stations, and the first shot at this great new technology." The result? He expects the stock, trading at 3.5 times Ebitda, to leap to 4.5 by 2015. That could propel the share price by 40% or more. --S.M. |
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瑞士信贷 主权债务危机期间，投资者纷纷逃离欧洲市场，大卫•赫尔罗却进行了近些年来最大胆的逆向操作之一，全面买入陷入困境的法国、西班牙和意大利金融股。结果，在过去的12个月中他实现了近40%的回报率【Oakmark国际基金（交易代码：OAKIX）也继续保持着出众的表现：15年来的年化回报率为11.3%，而MSCI欧澳远东指数（EAFE Index）的回报水平为5%】。目前，欧洲似乎已经摆脱困境。在这样的情况下，赫尔罗现在对瑞士银行业巨擘瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）的信心空前高涨。他认为，后者正处在“转折点”上。利率下降和瑞士法郎升值让瑞士信贷触及到了盈利周期的最低点，这家银行一直在增加准备金，以便满足危机过后更高的资本金要求。但赫尔罗认为，这些不利因素的影响已经消失。接下来瑞士信贷的盈利增幅将达到两位数，他说：“今后几年它的年营业利润应该能够达到80亿美元”，是现在的4倍。赫尔罗认为，这让瑞士信贷目前8.8倍的动态市盈率和1倍的市净率显得低得不合理。--S.M. |
Credit Suisse David Herro Even as investors fled Europe during its sovereign debt crisis, David Herro placed one of the most audacious contrarian bets in recent history, going all-in on beleaguered French, Spanish, and Italian financials. The result: nearly 40% returns over the past 12 months. (The fund's (OAKIX) extended record is also superb: 11.3% annualized returns over the past 15 years, vs. 5.0% for MSCI's EAFE index.) With Europe seemingly off the ledge, Herro now reserves his strongest conviction for Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse, which, he says, is at an "inflection point." Low interest rates and a strong Swiss currency have pushed it to the bottom of its earnings cycle, and the bank has been building reserves to comply with higher post-crisis capital requirements. But those impediments, Herro says, have run their course. The result will be double-digit earnings increases, he says: "Over the coming years it should be able to generate $8 billion in annual operating profits" -- four times the current level. To Herro, that makes the company's forward P/E of 8.8 and price-to-book ratio of 1 look unjustly low. --S.M. |
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Agco 赛拉•泽豪森喜欢淘便宜货。1年前，她持仓量最多的两只股票——医疗器械制造商Boston Scientific（交易代码：BSX，《财富》500强）和纽约时报公司（ New York Times Co. ，交易代码：NYT）——都不受青睐。今年初以来，这两只股票的回报率分别为108%和57%。14年来，泽豪森管理的Aston/Fairpointe中盘股基金（Aston/Fairpointe Mid Cap，交易代码：CHTTX）在超过10年的时间里都实现了12.1%的年化回报率，远高于同类基金7.8%的平均水平，这就是原因之一。她的最新逆向操作选择了农业设备制造商Agco。10月份这只股票下跌了9%，原因是季度每股收益比分析师的预期低了1美分。32%的每股收益增速（这对Agco来说是家常便饭）却无人理会。目前这只股票的2014年预期市盈率只有10倍，泽豪森认为它的上升空间要超过风险。她说：“在人口增长和提高农民收入这两项因素的作用下，人们会有更大的动力来提高农业生产效率。”管理层一直在通过削减成本来提升利润率（第三季度利润率上升了2个百分点）。泽豪森预计，这家公司的利润率最终将从目前的9%提高到15%。--J.B. |
Agco Thyra Zerhusen Thyra Zerhusen likes rummaging through the bargain bin. A year ago two of her biggest holdings were unpopular: medical-device maker Boston Scientific (BSX, Fortune 500)and newspaper publisher New York Times Co. (NYT) The duo have returned 108% and 57%, respectively, so far in 2013. That's one reason Zerhusen, who has led the fund(CHTTX) for 14 years, has racked up 12.1% annualized returns over 10 years, compared with 7.8% for the category. Her latest contrarian choice is agricultural equipment maker Agco. The stock sank 9% in October after quarterly earnings fell a penny short of analysts' expectations. Never mind that per-share profits were up 32% (which is typical for Agco). With shares trading at just 10 times estimated 2014 earnings, Zerhusen sees much more upside than risk. "Between population growth and expanding farm income, there's more incentive to be efficient in agricultural production," she says. Management has been boosting profit margins (up two percentage points in the third quarter) through cost cutting, and Zerhusen expects the margins eventually to rise from 9% today to 15%. --J.B. |
