中移动入选基金经理推荐的20大金股
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人力资源软件公司Ultimate Software Ultimate Software Group不适合低价股搜索者。这家公司为中小企业开发工资等人力资源软件，5年来股价上涨了1100%，2014年市盈率高达85倍。当然，作为成长型股票投资者，苏迪尔•南达也没有以低价股为目标。他认为Ultimate Software蕴含着巨大潜力，这家公司因此成为他的T. Rowe价格多元化小盘成长型基金（T. Rowe Price Diversified Small Cap Growth Fund，交易代码：PRDSX）的五大重仓股之一。此前，南达已经展示出了他在挑选优质股方面的水准：他的基金规模为7.09亿美元，5年来的年回报率为29.8%，高于小盘股基金26.6%的平均水平。这家软件公司过去5年的利润年增幅高达45%，南达看好它云服务的客户粘度，他认为Ultimate Software在这方面的表现好于竞争对手。此类人力资源软件的普及率只有30%，也就是说新用户的潜力足够大。南达说：“在可预见的时间内，这家公司的收入增速有望超过20%。随着规模的扩大和利润率的上升，盈利增速甚至会进一步提速。” --J.B. |
Ultimate Software Ultimate Software Group isn't a stock for bargain hunters. A developer of payroll and other human resources software for small and midsize businesses, it has seen its shares soar 1,100% over the past five years; they trade at a lofty 85 times projected 2014 earnings. Of course, as a growth investor, Sudhir Nanda isn't looking for cheap stocks. He believes Ultimate's potential is enormous, which is why it's a top-five holding in his T. Rowe Price Diversified Small Cap Growth Fund (PRDSX). Nanda has shown a knack for picking winners before: His $709 million fund has generated 29.8% annual returns over the past five years, vs. 26.6% for the average small-cap fund. Ultimate boasts gaudy 45% annual earnings improvement over the past five years, and Nanda loves the stickiness of its cloud-based services, which he considers better than those of rivals. Penetration for such HR offerings is only 30%, which means plenty of potential new customers. "The company can grow revenue greater than 20% for the foreseeable future," Nanda says. "Earnings will grow even faster as you scale up and get margin improvement." --J.B. |
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油罐驳船运营商Kirby 10年来大卫•达里奥一直管理着Dreyfus机会型中盘价值基金（Dreyfus Opportunistic Mid Cap Value Fund，交易代码：DMCVX），年化回报率为9.7%，高于晨星公司公布的同类基金8.8%的平均水平。他认为美国制造业正进入繁荣期，增长动力来自价格便宜而且供应充足的天然气燃料以及其他化工原料。达里奥目前看好Kirby，后者完全符合这样的主题。2013年Kirby公司股价已经大幅上涨，但达里奥认为它的上涨过程远未结束。Kirby是美国最大的油罐驳船运营商，利用密西西比河及周边水道运输化工产品、石油、汽油，其中大部分都运往炼油厂和化工厂。北达科他州的油气行业繁荣发展给Kirby带来了好处，它的驳船还将加拿大生产的石油运送到墨西哥湾地区的炼油厂。上个季度Kirby的利润增长了27%，对一只2014年预期市盈率为19倍的股票来说是个非常好的业绩。分析师预计，今后5年该公司利润每年将增长12%。达里奥说：“展望未来，石油、天然气和液化天然气的数量显然会增多，能消除瓶颈的公司将获得巨额收益。因此，对我们来说，Kirby是个相当简单的供需概念股。” --J.B. |
Kirby David Daglio David Daglio has run the Dreyfus Opportunistic Mid Cap Value Fund (DMCVX) for a decade, during which it has churned out 9.7% annualized returns, vs. 8.8% for its Morningstar category. He believes the U.S. is entering a manufacturing boom -- one fueled by cheap and plentiful natural gas and other chemical feedstocks. Daglio's current favorite holding, Kirby, fits squarely in that thesis. It has already been a big winner in 2013, but Daglio thinks its ascent is far from complete. Kirby is the largest tank barge operator in the U.S., using the Mississippi River and connecting waterways to transport chemicals, crude oil, gasoline, and more to refineries and chemical plants. Kirby has benefited from the North Dakota oil and gas boom, and its barges also move Canadian crude to Gulf Coast refineries. Last quarter Kirby's earnings rose 27% -- very good for a stock trading at 19 times estimated 2014 earnings. Analysts expect 12% a year earnings growth over the next five years. "As we look at the landscape, it's clear that we're going to have more oil, natural gas, and natural-gas liquids, and that the people who reduce bottlenecks are going to make a king's ransom," says Daglio. "So for us Kirby is a pretty simple supply-and-demand story."--J.B. |
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仲量联行 约翰•罗杰斯的Ariel投资者基金（Ariel Investor Fund）有着230亿美元的规模，仲量联行则是一家大型全球性房地产公司，从事商业房地产经营，券商融资，同时还为投资者管理房地产投资。二者有一定的相似性。罗杰斯长期持有仲量联行，后者的股价从2000年的13美元增至2007年的117美元，随后跌至20美元，最终回升到95美元。罗杰斯的投资生涯最初也经历过一些起伏，随后则捷报频传，5年来的平均回报率为31.2%，而标普指数的回报水平为21.5%。罗杰斯认为，全球商业房地产复苏已进入“第四或第五个回合”。他对仲量联行的资产管理业务特别乐观。他说，随着机构投资者从股票向债券和其他资产扩展，这项业务正在受益。目前仲量联行的2014年预期市盈率为14倍，但罗杰斯认为，它的利润加速增长可将市盈率提高到近20倍，也就是说这家公司的股价有望达到140美元。他说：“人们对这项业务的风险和波动性的认识超过了它在2013年的实际表现。他们在地域方面已经实现了多元化，已经在亚洲有了大量业务，同时还增加了产品种类。我们认为这只股票有巨大的上升空间。” --J.B. |
Jones Lang LaSalle John Rogers There's a certain symmetry between John Rogers's $2.3 billion Ariel Investor Fund(ARGFX) and his pick, Jones Lang LaSalle, a global real estate giant that runs commercial properties, brokers financing, and manages property portfolios for investors. A longtime holding for Rogers, the stock soared from $13 a share in 2000 to $117 in 2007, then cratered to $20 before roaring back to $95. After some bumpy years of his own, Rogers has been on a roll, with a five-year average return of 31.2%, vs. 21.5% for the S&P. Rogers thinks we're in "the fourth or fifth inning" of a global commercial real estate recovery. He's especially optimistic about JLL's asset-management arm, which, he says, is benefiting as institutional investors diversify from equities and bonds and into real estate. The stock is trading at 14 times expected 2014 profits, but Rogers thinks the company's accelerating profit growth merits a P/E closer to 20, which could lift the stock to $140. "People perceive this business as riskier and more volatile than it really is in 2013," Rogers says. "They've diversified geographically -- they've got huge businesses in Asia -- and they've expanded their product offerings. We think there's enormous upside." --J.B. |
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美国合众银行 马克•亨尼曼青睐本公司圣保罗总部附近的中西部企业并不仅仅是因为它们都具有核心地带价值。亨尼曼和威廉•弗莱尔斯从2006年起共同管理Mairs & Power成长型基金（Mairs & Power Growth，交易代码：MPGFX），今年亨尼曼开始独掌大权。他喜欢自己所投资公司的平易近人。采用这样的方法，这只基金10年来的平均回报率为9.5%，而标普500指数的回报水平为7.7%。美国和众银行总部设在明尼阿波利斯，亨尼曼很欣赏这家银行拒绝追捧热门话题——比如抵押贷款支持证券——的做法，这让它成为金融危机期间“美国表现最好的大型银行”。他指出，最近规模成了和众银行的优势：它拥有3500亿美元资产，足以从规模经济中受益，同时也可以避开针对那些最大金融机构的资本金要求。亨尼曼承认，12倍的市盈率对金融股来说并不低，但他指出，和众银行为不良贷款计提准备金的保守策略意味着人们实际上低估了它的盈利。即使不考虑8%的盈利增长预期，亨尼曼还是认为这家银行目前的业绩配得上18%的股价涨幅。--S.M. |
U.S. Bancorp Mark Henneman It's not just shared heartland values that draw Mark Henneman to companies based in the Midwest, near his firm's St. Paul headquarters. Henneman, who has co-managed Mairs & Power Growth (MPGFX) with William Frels since 2006 and took the helm this year, likes easy access to his portfolio companies. That approach earned an average of 9.5% for 10 years, vs. 7.7% for the S&P 500. In the case of Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp, he got an intimate look at how its refusal to chase hot ideas -- think mortgage-backed securities -- made it "the best-performing large bank in America" through the crisis. These days, he argues, size gives U.S. Bank a leg up: With $350 billion in assets, it's big enough to benefit from efficiencies of scale, yet small enough to elude capital requirements imposed on the biggest institutions. Henneman admits a P/E of 12 doesn't look cheap for a financial stock, but he argues that U.S. Bank's conservative approach to reserving for underperforming loans means its earnings are effectively understated. Even before figuring in projected earnings growth of 8%, he thinks U.S. Bank's current performance justifies an 18% stock bump. --S.M. |
