中移动入选基金经理推荐的20大金股
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纽约银行梅隆公司 克里斯•戴维斯思虑周密而且倾向于规避风险。他管理着规模为210亿美元的戴维斯纽约风险投资基金（Davis New York Venture Fund，交易代码：NYVTX），15年来的年均回报率为6%，而标普500指数的回报率为4.8%。在稳妥和大胆之间，他总是更倾向于前者。戴维斯选择的是纽约银行梅隆公司（Bank of New York Mellon）。这是一家托管银行，为共同基金等机构投资者保管资产，同时为股票和债券发行人收取或支付股息或债券利息。它的规模经济优势非常明显——托管资产达26万亿美元——其他银行几乎不可能进入这个市场。纽约银行梅隆公司的2014年预期市盈率为13倍，股息收益率为1.8%，2013年盈利预计将增长12%。戴维斯认为，在某种情况下这家银行的利润增速还有希望加快。他说：“我们预计今后的利率将大幅度上升。”据戴维斯估算，由于托管资产数额巨大，利率每上升2个百分点，纽约银行梅隆公司的每股收益就会提高近50%。他指出：“这家银行的业务非常、非常乏味……但我确实认为它的盈利增长动力不会减弱。我就喜欢这样的风险/回报情况。” --J.B. |
Bank of New York Mellon Chris Davis is thoughtful and risk-averse -- his $21 billion Davis New York Venture Fund(NYVTX) has averaged 6% annual returns over the past 15 years, vs. 4.8% for the S&P 500 -- and he'll always favor the reliable over the audacious. Davis's choice: Bank of New York Mellon. A "custody" bank, it holds assets for institutional investors, such as mutual funds, and collects and distributes dividends and coupon payments for issuers of stocks and bonds. The economies of scale are so vast -- with $26 trillion in custody -- that it would be nearly impossible for a newcomer to make inroads into its market. BNY Mellon trades at 13 times projected 2014 earnings, pays a 1.8% dividend yield, and is projected to have 12% earnings growth in 2013. He also sees a scenario in which earnings could accelerate. "We expect interest rates to be significantly higher in the future," says Davis, who asserts that a two-percentage-point increase in interest rates could increase BNY Mellon's earnings per share by nearly 50%, given its massive assets in custody. "It's a boring, boring business ... but I don't really see the scenarios where the earnings power is diminished," Davis says. "That's the sort of risk/reward that I like." --J.B. |
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摩根士丹利 10年来，Alger Spectra基金的年回报率为12.3%，好于99%的大盘成长型基金。9年来一直担任基金经理的帕特里克•凯利说，他要找的是正在发生“有利而有活力的变化”进而能够提高利润和股价的公司。就摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）而言，凯利指出，这样的变化来自两方面。首先是收入增长和削减成本，该公司正在提升理财业务的利润率——预计将从2009年的9%提高到2015年的20%。其次，摩根士丹利正在压缩盈利能力较弱的固定收益业务，预计相关资产的规模将从2011年的3900亿美元降至2016年的1800亿美元，由此释放的资金可以返还给股东。因此，凯利预计，到2015年理财业务将占该公司税前利润的50%，远高于2010年的18%。他指出，当市场注意到这一点，摩根士丹利的股东就会受益，原因是该公司理财业务的估值倍数高于它传统的机构业务。摩根士丹利的股价已从2013年初的19美元上涨到目前的30美元左右，但盈利增长得更快，从而保持着12倍的动态市盈率。--S.M. |
Morgan Stanley Patrick Kelly For the past decade, Alger Spectra (SPECX) has racked up returns of 12.3% a year, better than 99% of large-cap growth funds. Patrick Kelly, who has led the fund for nine years, says he looks for companies undergoing "positive dynamic change" that can propel earnings and stock prices. In the case of Morgan Stanley, Kelly says, the change has two components. First, through revenue growth and cost cutting, the company is boosting the margins of its wealth management division -- from 9% in 2009 to a projected 20% in 2015. Second, it's shrinking its less profitable fixed-income business, reducing the assets associated with it from $390 billion in 2011 to a projected $180 billion in 2016, freeing capital that can be returned to shareholders. As a result, he expects that wealth management will account for 50% of Morgan Stanley's pretax income by 2015, up from 18% in 2010. When the market takes note, Kelly says, shareholders will benefit because wealth management trades at a higher multiple than does Morgan Stanley's traditional institutional business. The stock has already surged from $19 at the start of 2013 to around $30 now, but earnings have advanced even faster, preserving the forward P/E at 12. --S.M. |
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西联 Artisan中型价值股基金（Artisan Mid Cap Value，交易代码：ARTQX）10年来的平均回报率为12.7%，高于标普中盘股400指数的10.5%，其中尽是表现欠佳的个股。果然，联席经理詹姆斯•基弗（2001年加入）就看好一只走势不好的股票：西联（Western Union）。3个月来该公司股价下跌了8.5%，中盘股却出现了8.8%的涨幅。西联警告称，2014年利润水平可能和今年持平，导致一些投资者抛售它的股票套现。基弗认为这是一种目光短浅的行为。全球化带来了更多的移民劳动力，他们经常要供养还没有移民的家人，从而提升了电汇需求。不过，电汇增多也让防范洗钱等非法活动的监管部门加强了审查。这就意味着短期内合规成本将上升。基弗看到了好的一面。西联是行业领军者，和规模较小的竞争对手相比能更好地消化这些成本。此外，西联已决定下调费率，这让投资者望而却步，但基弗认为这是该公司发动价格战的第一枪，目的是给竞争对手施加更大的压力。他说：“西联以往的市盈率都在15倍以上，目前市盈率则为12倍。这家公司的股息收益率为2.9%。对我来说，这能带来极大价值。” |
Western Union James Kieffer Underdogs abound at Artisan Mid Cap Value (ARTQX), which has averaged 12.7% returns for a decade, vs. 10.5% for the S&P Midcap 400 Index. Sure enough, co-manager James Kieffer (at the fund since 2001) endorses a straggler: Western Union, whose shares have slid 8.5% over the past three months even as midcaps jumped 8.8%. The company warned of flat 2014 earnings, prompting some investors to bail out. Kieffer thinks that's shortsighted. Globalization has led to greater labor migration, which has increased demand for wire transfers, since workers often support families back home. But the rise in transfers has also brought increased scrutiny by regulators looking for money laundering or other illegal activity. That means higher short-term compliance costs. Kieffer sees a silver lining. As the industry leader, Western Union is positioned to absorb those costs better than smaller rivals. In addition, he views Western Union's decision to cut fees, which alienated investors, as the first volley in a price war to tighten the screws on competitors. "It's a stock trading at 12 times earnings that historically had traded in the high teens," he says. "They're also paying you a 2.9% dividend yield. To me, that's a lot of bang for your buck." --J.B. |
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MarketAxess 几年前，股市摆脱了一些华尔街券商的主导，进入了电子市场时代。托马斯•奥格纳认为债券市场也将出现同样的情况。这对MarketAxess Holdings来说意味着机遇，因为它是一个债券电子交易平台。虽然成本较低，但这样的平台在开拓债市方面取得的进展不如股市，部分原因是债券交易不像股票那么频繁。不过，奥格纳认为情况正在发生改变。他的富国银行优势成长基金（Wells Fargo Advantage Growth，交易代码：SGROX）的规模为124亿美元，5年来的年均回报率为29.2%，高于标普500指数的21.5%。面对更高的资本金要求和对自营交易更严格的监管，大型华尔街公司已经无法大量持有、交易债券。同时，奥格纳指出，利率下降也让客户对利率的敏感度高于以往。MarketAxess是这个领域的领跑者，成交量从2011年以来提高了50%。这公司的股价并不低，2014年预期市盈率为32倍，但奥格纳认为这样的预测过于保守，他说：“他们提高盈利的能力远远超过分析师目前所认定的水平。” --J.B. 译者：Charlie |
MarketAxess It happened years ago for stocks, and Thomas Ognar believes it's going to happen for bonds: a shift from dominance by a handful of Wall Street broker-dealers to electronic marketplaces. That means opportunity for MarketAxess Holdings, an electronic trading system for bonds. Despite lower costs, such platforms have made less headway with bonds than with stocks, in part because bonds are traded less frequently than stocks. But Ognar, whose $12.4 billion fund (SGROX) has a five-year average annual return of 29.2%, vs. 21.5% for the S&P, thinks that's changing. Faced with tougher capital requirements and tighter regulations on proprietary trading, big Wall Street firms can no longer afford to maintain large inventories in the bonds for which they serve as dealers. Meanwhile, Ognar notes, reduced interest rates have made clients more price-sensitive than in the past. Trading volumes for MarketAxess, the leader in its niche, have increased 50% since 2011. The stock isn't cheap, trading at 32 times estimated 2014 earnings, but Ognar thinks those projections are too conservative: "The trajectory of their ability to grow earnings is a lot higher than what analysts are looking for." --J.B. |
