投资者需警惕新兴市场新一轮政局动荡

    举例来说，埃及经济并没有因为军方发动政变、推翻政府而一蹶不振；相反，2011年胡斯尼•穆巴拉克下台后留下的混乱局势和政治真空似乎因为政变而得到了治理和填充。与此同时，今年夏天出现的所谓“沙拉革命”并每个有给巴西的经济发展规划造成明显的影响。7月份抗议活动偃旗息鼓后，巴西政府很快就向对收益率如饥似渴的新兴市场投资者发行了35亿美元的债券，发债过程非常顺利。

    埃及和巴西的游行示威归于平静似乎让新兴市场投资者产生了“这里很安全”的错觉。实际上，埃及和巴西的问题都没有得到解决，反对派也没有解体。情况自然而然就会改观的想法很有吸引力，但埃及和巴西爆发抗议活动的根源在于收入不均和政治腐败，而且这两个棘手的问题正变得越发严重。许多新兴市场都存在这样的问题，包括泰国和乌克兰。

    上周一，花旗银行（Citibank）分析师向客户提供的报告指出：“过去两年中，印度、俄罗斯、巴西、埃及、土耳其和印尼都出现了几十年来规模最大的政治抗议活动。游行示威往往此起彼伏，大选之前会更为频繁，而明年上述多个国家都将进行选举。”

    除非找到一些办法来解决抗议活动背后的核心问题，否则游行示威将接二连三地出现，直到矛盾彻底激化。多年来，乌克兰和泰国一直在试图解决这些问题，但民众似乎再也没有耐心继续忍受下去。对泰国来说，大选意味着示威活动将再延续几个星期。乌克兰民众似乎也决心要迫使政府进行大选。为了取代军政府，埃及已经制定了选举计划，但这必将引发新的冲突。巴西的大选定在明年10月份，这会让明年夏天的局势备受关注。

    如果说新兴市场有什么不同的话，那就是它们的政局看来处于空前的不稳定状态。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    For example, in Egypt, the toppling of the government in a military coup didn't send the Egyptian economy into a tailspin; indeed, it seemed to have brought order to what was a chaotic political vacuum following the toppling of Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the so-called "Salad Revolution" this summer failed to disrupt the nation's economic development plans in any significant way. Shortly after the protests calmed down in July, Brazil issued $3.5 billion worth of bonds to a pack of yield-hungry EM investors without a hitch.

    The lull in protests in Egypt and Brazil seem to be giving EM investors a false sense of security. Indeed nothing was resolved in either country, and opposition groups remain organized. It is tempting to assume that things will just work themselves out, but the root of both protests revolve around two growing and troublesome issues -- income inequality and political corruption -- both of which plague a number of EM countries, including Thailand and Ukraine.

    "Over the past two years, India, Russia, Brazil, Egypt, Turkey, and Indonesia have all seen their largest political protests in decades," Citibank analysts wrote in a note to their clients Monday. "Protests often beget protests, and they become more common in the run-up to elections, which in many of these countries will occur over the next year."

    Unless there is some resolution of the core issues behind a revolt, they will simply resurface again and again until things explode. Ukraine and Thailand have been wrestling with their issues for years, and it seems that the people have finally had it. New elections in Thailand will mean weeks of further protests. Meanwhile, it seems that the Ukrainian people are determined to force an election. Elections due in Egypt to replace the military government will surely sprout new revolts there while elections in Brazil next October should make for an interesting summer.

    If anything, the EM looks more politically unstable than ever.