比特币生态系统探秘

    美国银行认为未来比特币将一家独大，但安托诺坡罗斯的看法与之相左。他认为在这个市场发生不可避免的暴跌之后，至少会有几种货币都有存活的空间。他说，那些无法被归入比特币范畴、但设法保持了安全性，同时拥有可靠用户基础的货币将会存活下来。按照安托诺坡罗斯的预测，最终比特币将拥有加密数字货币市值的80%-85%，而剩余价值将由五到六种替代币瓜分。这些幸存的替代币可能会在一个不断演变的加密数字币生态系统中服务于几个细分市场，同时它们都将为那些觉得比特币太贵的用户提供“泄压阀”——考虑到比特币严格受控的增长率和最终增长极限，它的天价基本上不可避免。

    迄今为止，有助于替代币用户买入的特点中有一点尤为重要：开发者诚实、透明、相对无私的行为方式。Lite币的主要开发者查理•李花了很大力气确保数字加密货币支持者在Lite币推出时就得知消息并能够买入，因为任何一种数字加密货币在这种时候都是最容易挖掘的。他说：“正式推出（2011年10月）一周前我就公布了源代码，这样大家就可以做好（挖掘）准备工作了。”在某种程度上，也正是由于这份保持公平透明的努力，Lite币现在是仅次于比特币的第二大数字加密货币。同样地，另一个开发者桑尼•金也是在其Peer币2012年8月可正式挖掘那天的九天前就公布了源代码。结果Peer币现在成了排名第三位的数字加密货币。

    但是，在2013年的替代币爆发中，李表示“我没看到其中有哪种币推出时有同样的透明度。”这确实不是一帮坏蛋想通过伪造数字加密货币挣快钱那么简单。通常，这种发财之道是通过所谓的“提前挖掘”来实现的，即某个货币的创始人在向公众正式公布挖掘代码前自己先囤积一大笔货币。随后，他们就会大搞市场推广。有传言称，这种手法就包括定期向知名发言人塞钱，并通过行贿让自己的货币在交易所挂牌，这样一来就能让这种货币披上合法的外衣。然后，当已被大肆炒作的假币一推出，数字加密货币追捧者的大举买入就会让它的价格迅速蹿升，此时这位不择手段的创始人就能大笔出货了。安托诺坡罗斯说：“用大家最熟悉的说法就是，超过80%的替代币玩的都是拉高出货的把戏。”

    相比之下 ，查理•李就表示自己并没有从创造Lite币中大发横财。他说：“我赚了点钱，当然和大家一样我也希望能多赚点。”不过从行业地位和影响力来说 ，他却获益良多，因为他和Lite币已经充分证明，替代币在强化整个数字加密货币生态系统上大有可为。李表示：“Lite币的开发团队与比特币的开发团队现在正在紧密合作。最新推出的比特币含有大量暂时未经Lite币测试的代码，因为我们这个市场比较小，要进行改变也更灵活。”  

    But unlike Bank of America, which predicts a future in which Bitcoin stands alone, Antonopoulos sees space for at least a few alternatives after the inevitable shakeout. Those whose features cannot be incorporated into bitcoin, which manage to remain secure, and which build a robust user base will survive, he says. At the end of the process, Antonopoulos foresees Bitcoin holding between 80 and 85% of all cryptocurrency capitalization, with the remaining value divided between as few as five or six altcoins. The surviving altcoins may serve different niches within an evolved cryptocoin ecosystem, and all will offer a 'release valve' for users who feel that Bitcoin is too expensive – a near inevitability, given Bitcoin's strictly controlled growth rate and eventual growth cap.

    So far, one feature has been more important than any other in helping any altcoin build user buy-in: honest, transparent, and relatively selfless behavior by its developers. Litecoin lead developer Charlie Lee made great efforts to ensure cryptocurrency supporters' awareness and access at Litecoin's launch, when any cryptocurrency is easiest to mine. "I released the source code a week before the launch [in October of 2011], so people could prepare [to mine]." In part thanks to this push for fairness and openness, litecoin is now the second-biggest cryptocurrency after bitcoin. Creator Sunny King similarly released the sourcecode for his peercoin nine days before mining opened in August of 2012. Peercoin is currently the third-ranked cryptocurrency.

    In the 2013 altcoin explosion, though, Lee says "I haven't seen any other coin roll out with the same level of transparency." It certainly hasn't been the M.O. of the flood of bad actors looking to make a quick buck by starting bogus cryptocurrencies. This is usually accomplished through what's known as a "premine," in which the founders of a currency generate a large chunk of currency for themselves before releasing the mining code to the public. Those founders will then undertake a big marketing push, including, it is rumored, the occasional payoff to a prominent spokesman and bribes in exchange for listing on cryptocoin trading exchanges, which can confer a sheen of legitimacy. Then, when the hyped, bogus coin is released, adoption by cryptocoin enthusiasts can give its value a brief bump, and unscrupulous founders can unload their premined loot. "In excess of 80% of altcoins are pump-and-dump schemes in the most traditional sense of the term," says Antonopoulos.

    By contrast, Charlie Lee claims he hasn't disproportionately benefitted from the creation of litecoin. "I have some, I wish I had more, like everyone else." Lee has benefitted, though, in terms of community stature and influence, as he and litecoin have come to exemplify the role of altcoins in strengthening the overall cryptocoin ecosystem. "The litecoin development team works pretty closely with the bitcoin dev team. The latest bitcoin release contained a lot of code that had been tested out in litecoin for a while, because we're a slightly smaller market and we're more nimble to make changes."