风险投资人预测2014科技界8大走势

    6. 互联网并购将增多：随着全球化步伐的加快以及消费者加速从固定网络转向移动网络，Facebook和Twitter等互联网巨擘必须得更加灵活和贪婪，才能跟上行业发展的步伐。它们还得进一步开发本公司已经羽翼丰满的“智能广告网络”，同时增强自身移动业务的能力。我相信，这将使移动互联网和广告技术领域的并购数量在2014年大幅上升。我预计，网络股将在2014年出现适度增长，原因是大型互联网企业基础坚实，可以进行更多的收购。移动社交网络的出现将继续让消费者的认同度发生分化，特别是在十几岁和二十几岁这两个年龄组。举例来说，Snapchat、Vine、Nextdoor和Instagram等社交网络已经暴露出了Facebook和Twitter的弱点，特别是在面对年轻的移动设备用户的时候。移动设备构建的社交网络在便携性方面远远超过台式机，这种情况让所有大型社交网络公司更容易受到冲击。我为什么认为并购对它们很重要？这就是原因之一。它们必须保持对移动社交网络领域的控制。如果主要依靠内生性增长策略，这些公司就无法做到这一点。2014年，专家们回顾Facebook对Instagram的收购时会认为这是一项天才之举，因为它将进一步鼓励其他大型社交网络公司采取外生性增长策略。

    7. 比特币将大行其道：我认为，比特币显然将继续增长，但也将出现极端的波动性。Overstock.com等零售商会在更多的经营网点使用比特币。不过，银行业和政府仍将存在一定分歧。这些机构仍将无法正确认识到比特币带来的真正机遇和威胁。比特币有可能让经济和政治脱钩。

    8. 2014年纳斯达克指数将再次上涨：纳斯达克指数年底可能收于4500点，但也可能更接近5000点，这是纳斯达克指数在2000年创下的神奇纪录。但同时，投资者们也会因此在自己的博客里大谈“泡沫”问题。我认为，关于泡沫的探讨会让投资者着迷，他们会不由自主地把2014年和1999年进行比较；他们还会注意到，2014年正是科技行业首次进入繁荣期15周年。以科技股为主的纳斯达克市场虽然有可能出现不安和波动，但我认为它的整体趋势将继续向上。个人投资者最终会重返这个市场，从中受益。（财富中文网）

作者简介

    本文作者是硅谷风投公司Norwest Venture Partners合伙人。他在哈佛商学院获得了工商管理硕士学位，在斯坦福大学获得了管理科学和工程（工业工程）理学学士学位。

    译者：Charlie

    6. Internet M&A deals will rise: As a result of an accelerated trend toward globalization and shifts from web to mobile consumption, most Internet giants including Facebook and Twitter (TWTR) will have to become much more agile and acquisitive to keep pace. They will also need to further develop their own full-fledged "smart ad network" and enhance mobile capabilities. I believe this will result in a spike in more mobile and adtech M&A in 2014. I predict Internet stocks will be up reasonably high in 2014, giving the Internet giants' solid ground from which to make more acquisitions. The emergence of mobile social networks will continue to fragment mind share, especially in the teen and tween demographic. For example, Snapchat, Vine, Nextdoor, and Instagram are examples of mobile social networks that have shown Facebook's and Twitter's vulnerability, especially when it comes to young mobile users. The fact that the social graph is much more "transportable" on the mobile device than on the PC makes all social incumbents more vulnerable. This is one reason why I think M&A is important for them; they must maintain control of the social mobile world, and they cannot do this relying largely on an organic growth strategy. In 2014, the experts will look back at Instagram's acquisition by Facebook as a genius move that will further embolden other large social properties to step up inorganic growth strategies.

    7. Bitcoin will thrive: I think it's evident that Bitcoin will continue to rise, but will also show extreme volatility. Adoption by outlets such as Overstock.com and other retailers will continue to grow. However, the banking industry and governments will remain somewhat split. These institutions will continue to misunderstand the real opportunities and threats this crypto currency provides. Bitcoin has the opportunity to decouple the economic world from the political world.

    8. NASDAQ Index will rise again in 2014: The NASDAQ index could end the year at 4,500, but may even get close to the magical 5,000 mark set at the peak of 2000. This will create a massive amount of chatter in the investor blogosphere around talks of a "Bubble." I predict that investors will get captivated by the bubble chatter and will obsessively compare 2014 with 1999 and note that this is the 15th year anniversary of the first tech boom. While there may be anxiety and volatility in the tech-heavy NASDAQ, I think the overall upward trend should continue. The retail investor will finally come back to the market and benefit.

About the Author

    Sergio Monsalve is a partner at Norwest Venture Partners. He holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a bachelor of science degree in management sciences and engineering (industrial engineering) from Stanford University.