华尔街天气衍生产品遭遇寒冬之谜

    总的来说，金融危机爆发至今，较难琢磨的衍生产品市场都已经枯竭。这也可能给天气期货合约的需求带来了不利影响。同时，在气候变化的作用下，预计降雪量将突破历史纪录的人数正在迅速减少。今年的降雪量要创下新高可能已经来不及。但美国东海岸周五遭到暴风雪袭击，让华尔街又看到了希望。

    霍奇森说，专门为某家公司量身定制的降雪期货合约的柜台交易依然活跃。但主导这个柜台交易市场的往往是专业公司，而不是大型投行；这种合约也表现得更像保险产品，而非金融合约。霍奇森认为，这个市场缺少一个好的指数，这个指数的作用就像标普500指数（S&P 500）之于股市。在这种情况下，天气衍生产品很难进行交易。

    天气风险管理解决方案在线供应商eWeatherRisk首席执行官布莱恩•奥赫恩说，他的公司正在开发的降雪期货合约以暴风雪出现的次数为基础，而不是绝对降雪量。他认为这种合约将更受欢迎。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie   

    In general, the markets for more esoteric derivatives have dried up since the financial crisis. That could be hurting demand for weather contracts as well. Also, given the effects of climate change, the number of people expecting record snowfalls is rapidly shrinking.

    It's probably too late for this year. Still, snowstorms like the one that hit the East Coast on Friday give Wall Street hope.

    Hodgson says there is still an active market in over-the-counter snow contracts specifically tailored to a single company. But the market tends to be dominated by specialty firms, not big banks, and it tends to behave more like insurance rather than a financial contract. Hodgson says he thinks the lack of a good index for the market, like the S&P 500 (SPX) for stocks, has made weather derivatives hard to trade.

    eWeatherRisk CEO Brian Ohearne says his company is trying to develop snow contracts that are based on the number of storms rather than the absolute number of inches. He thinks those contacts will be more popular.