2014年全球经济十大“意外”事件

    10. 《平价医保法》（Affordable Care Act）的处境将发生明显改观。平价医保交易网站无法登录的现象将大幅减少，年轻人将开始在这个网站上注册。奥巴马的支持率将上升。在11月份的中期选举中，民主党不仅将控制参议院，在众议院的席位甚至也会增加。

    每年都会有一些“意外”事件未能跻身前十，这要么是因为我觉得它们没有十大“意外”事件重要，要么是因为我不太确信它们是不是“很有可能”出现。

    2014年，这样的“准意外”事件包括：

    • 综合考虑智商、极端性、名声和狡猾程度，泰德•克鲁兹将在共和党2016年总统候选人的争夺中遥遥领先。克里斯•克里斯蒂以及温和派人士的支持率将下滑，原因是保守的财政和社会政策越来越有市场。

    • 比特币的价格在两年半时间里从25美元增至975美元。比特币供应量达到2100万枚，流通中的比特币有1150万枚。比特币不能像黄金那样发挥保值作用。2014年期间，人们对比特币的接受程度将急剧下降，原因是投资者意识到比特币无法在金融交易中充当抵押品，而且它发挥作用的场合主要是那些非法商业勾当，在这种情况下不暴露身份很重要。

    • 奥巴马总统顶住了古巴流亡人士的反对，开始和古巴政府就启动贸易和建立外交关系进行磋商。美国方面将提议减少对古巴的制裁，并以债券形式为古巴提供有限的财政援助。人们很快就开始把这些债券称为“卡斯特罗可转债”。

    • 希拉里•克林顿决定不参加2016年总统大选。她表示，自己在克林顿基金会的各项非营利活动中的工作很重要而且尚未结束。她明确指出，自己做出这样的决定并不是出于健康方面的考虑。民主党内对总统候选人的争夺将陷入一片混乱。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie   

    10. The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer access problems are significantly diminished, and younger people begin signing up. Obama's approval rating rises, and in the November elections the Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the House.

    Every year there are always a few surprises that do not make the Top 10 either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are "probable."

    Also rans:

    • Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity, and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Chris Christie and the moderates fade in popularity as momentum builds for fiscal and social conservative policies.

    • In 2½ years the price of a Bitcoin has increased from $25 to $975. The supply of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million with 11.5 million in circulation. Bitcoins lack gold's position as a store of value over time. During the year Bitcoin's acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.

    • Overcoming objections from the Cuban exile community, President Obama opens discussions on initiating trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba. A reduction in sanctions is proposed, as well as limited financial support in the form of bonds, quickly dubbed as "Castro convertibles."

    • Hillary Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016. She says her work with various Clinton non-for-profit initiatives is important and unfinished. Specifically, she explains that her health was not an issue in her decision. The Democratic race for the top seat becomes chaotic.