3分钟教你看懂人民币升值的那些事

    人民币升值历程：去年，人民币兑美元创历史新高，汇率上升3%，达到了6.05元。人民币终于成功完成了长达八年的长跑。2005年，人民币不再单一盯住美元。之后，更加自由的人民币升值了35%。

    人民币为什么升值？

    2013年，全球经济增长，中国出口扩大。基本就是这些原因。但中国的情况更加复杂，因为中国央行一直对人民币实行严格的监管，防范因人民币升值过快造成贸易失衡。【据德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）披露，去年流入中国的净资金为3,870亿美元。】至于技术原因，虽然中国允许人民币交易【投资者可以在芝加哥商品交易所（Chicago Mercantile Exchange）购买人民币期权】，但政府对这类交易实行严格限制，因此，导致人民币不可能每天出现大幅波动。

    为什么说人民币升值很重要？

    北京大学（Peking University）光华管理学院（Guanghua School of Management）教授迈克尔•佩蒂斯曾坚定地指出，中国正处于再平衡过程中。人民币升值对中国的未来至关重要，但人民币不能升值过快，否则将危及中国的现状。佩蒂斯表示，中国必须允许人民币升值，以增加家庭收入相对GDP的实际价值。也就是说，人民币价值越高，进口消费品的价格就越低——所有商品都将面临一定的进口成本。佩蒂斯说：“就算你只是（在北京）喝一杯中国茶，也必须使用石油、钢铁、卡车把茶从云南运到北京。所以我们始终离不开进口。”但另一方面，人民币价值越高，中国出口商品便会逐渐丧失对海外消费者的吸引力，因为强势的货币必将提高外国人购买中国商品的价格。政府必须想清楚，到底希望通过人民币升值把多少财富从制造商转移到普通家庭手中。佩蒂斯相信，如果中国缓慢调整币值，中国的平衡做法将顺利完成——中国出口商在失去海外客户的同时，可以获得新的国内客户。但现在说这些还为时尚早。佩蒂斯说：“谁也不知道这到底是否是正确的节奏，不过看起来会相当成功。”

    人民币升值还有哪些重要影响？

    人民币升值对中国和世界都非常重要。不妨问问美国那些在选区有制造商的政客。但我们可能忽视了更重大的问题。更重要的并不是人民币最终升到多高，而是中国能否解决另外一个严重的财务问题：超高的债务负担。本月早些时候，乔治•索罗斯在辛迪加项目（Project Syndicate）专栏发表文章，谈到了自己对中国债务问题的看法。他表示，2012年，中国央行采取措施遏制过度放贷，结果导致经济出现低迷。所以，2013年，中国央行放松了对贷款的限制，经济马上就出现了好转。他写道：“中国现行政策存在尚未解决的自相矛盾之处。重新开动炼钢炉将导致债务大幅增加。这种增长模式也许只能持续几年时间。”其次，中国的政治和经济改革必须有效改变现状。人民币未来的走向将取决于中国所选择的道路。

    What happened: Last year China's currency reached an all-time high against the dollar, gaining 3% to hit 6.05 yuan per dollar. It capped a nice eight-year run since 2005, when the currency finally dropped its strict peg to the dollar. Since then, the liberalized yuan has risen by 35%.

    Why the rise?

    The global economy grew, and Chinese exports expanded in 2013. That's it, more or less. But it's never so easy in China because the central bank keeps tight control over the yuan by basically preventing trade imbalances from driving up the yuan's value too much. (China adsorbed net inflows of 387 billion U.S. dollars last year, according to Deutsche Bank.) For technical reasons, China allows the yuan to trade (you can buy yuan futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), but strict limits are imposed so the currency can't move dramatically day to day.

    Why it matters

    China is in the middle of a rebalancing act, as Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, has eloquently pointed out. The yuan's rise is important to China's future, but it can't rise so fast that it imperils China's present. Pettis says the country must let the yuan's value increase so that the real value of household income relative to GDP expands. That is, the higher the yuan's value, the lower the price of imported consumer goods -- and all goods face some kind of import cost. "Even if you're drinking cup of Chinese tea [in Beijing], that had to be transported from Yunnan using oil, steel, trucks, so you're always importing," Pettis says. The flipside is, the more the yuan rises, the less attractive China's exports become to overseas buyers, because a strong currency increases the price foreigners pay for Chinese goods. The government must decide how much wealth it wants to transfer from manufactures to households by letting the yuan rise. Pettis believes if China revalues slowly, the balancing act will play out smoothly -- Chinese exporters gain new domestic customers as they lose overseas ones. But it's too early to say if that's happening. "Who knows whether this is the right pace or not," says Pettis, adding, "It seems to be reasonably successful."

    What else really matters?

    The yuan's rise is important to China and the world. Just ask any politician in the U.S. who has manufacturers in their district. But what if we're missing the bigger picture, which is not how high the yuan will eventually rise, but rather, can China rebalance another major financial concern: theextreme loads of debt in its economy. George Soros gave his take on China's debt problems earlier this month in a Project Syndicate column. He said when China's central bank took measures to curb excesses in 2012, the economy showed distress. So in 2013 it eased credit, and poof, the economy picked up. "There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China's current policies," he wrote. "Restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years." After that, China's political and economic reforms have to kick in and improve the situation. The yuan's moves will likely be consequences of the path China chooses.