美国需要提防通胀，而不是通缩

    Hedgeye的宏观分析发现，物价继续上扬，使得通胀对投资者来说成为一种更糟糕的局面。根据美国供应管理协会（ISM）对制造业和服务业的调查中，支付价格指标出现上升。耐用品订单、消费品零售、消费趋势、住房需求和房价的涨势全面放缓，美国国债收益率差也在缩小，表明经济增长前景正在变得更糟糕。ISM服务业新订单指数——ISM调查中体现今后经济活动的最佳先行指标——已经回落到了2009年7月的水平；ISM制造业新订单指数则出现了1980年12月以来的最大月环比跌幅。当时，美国经济即将陷入衰退，而且在随后的两年中一直处于低迷状态。

    联邦规划和监管部门眼下正忙着说服公众，让他们相信，一切都在掌握之中。但实际上，监管层并不知道哪些因素会引发新一轮危机。其实，新的危机可能已经出现，诱因就是美联储为了提高通胀率、促进出口而压低美元汇率——而促进出口的对象是（截至目前）明显表现出众的印度和英国。这些政策的长期影响不是增强经济实力，而是造成更大的差距，从而使社会更有可能出现不稳定局面，新兴市场也可能全面崩溃，而美国对此毫无准备。

    在这种情况下，可选方案有限，麦卡洛希望耶伦能明确表示，美联储将继续降低购债规模，同时继续收紧政策，从而使美元走强，帮助美国经济再次出现较快的增长。

    但麦卡洛说：“希望本身并不是一种风险管理策略。”（财富中文网）

    本文作者是Hedgeye风险管理公司董事总经理，著有《修复破碎的华尔街》一书。

    译者：Charlie

    Hedgeye's macro analysis finds the rate of change in prices continues its upward trend, making the inflationary scenario worse for investors. The Prices Paid component is up in the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services Surveys. Durable goods orders, retail sales, consumer trends, housing demand, and home prices are all slowing, and the U.S. Treasury's yield spread is compressing, indicating a worsening growth outlook. SM services new orders -- the best lead indicator of future activity in the survey -- are back down to the level they were in July 2009, and ISM manufacturing new orders just had their biggest month-over-month decline since December 1980, the eve of a recession that battered the nation for two years.

    Central planners and regulators are busy assuring their citizens that things are under control, but the reality is that regulators don't know what forces will cause the next crisis. In fact, we may already be in the midst of the next crisis, spurred by central bankers trashing their currencies to stoke price inflation and stimulate exports -- with notable standouts (so far) India and the U.K. The lasting impact of these policies is not economic strength, but greater inequality, with an increasing likelihood of social unrest and a possible collapse across emerging markets, for which the U.S. is not prepared.

    In this limited options scenario, McCullough hopes for an unequivocal statement from Yellen that the Fed will continue to taper and continue to tighten. That would strengthen the dollar and help set the U.S. economy back on a stronger growth track.

    But "Hope," says McCullough, "is not a risk management strategy."

    Moshe Silver is a Managing Director at Hedgeye Risk Management and author of Fixing a Broken Wall Street.