比特币价格真的能涨到5万美元吗？

    比特币应用于零售业的美妙情景时常在比特币拥护者的脑海中涌现。如果在线零售商只需要给比特币平台支付1%的手续费，而不是信用卡的2%-3%，他们就能大幅提高原本微薄的利润。有人问，还需要多久，主流零售商才会给使用比特币付款的客户提供折扣，把它当作实现利润最大化的手段呢？这样的折扣可以让比特币在短时间内迅速普及。

    不过埃塞仍然认为，加密货币也面临着可能将把它扼杀于摇篮之中的挑战，首当其冲的就是来自政府的管制。“大国屈指可数”，而他们当中只要有几个国家执行不利的管制，就会让加密货币的功能在很长时间内大大受限。

    即使加密货币成为我们交易的媒介之一，我们也同样不能断定比特币就会是唯一的一种加密货币，甚至也无法肯定它就一定是应用最广的那种加密货币。埃塞表示，随着与之竞争的加密货币系统整合了所需的特色、更强大的功能，或者仅仅只是采用了更有效的市场推广手段，都很可能导致比特币在未来“根本抢不到任何市场份额。”最近，随着比特币代码出现“交易延展性”问题，人们认为比特币交易可能存在系统性的缺陷，结果导致比特币价格大跳水。加密货币市场的一个部门可以将包括比特币在内的独立系统的未来价值维持在较低的水准。（爆料：埃塞和创造另一种密码学货币系统的公司Ripple Labs进行了协商。）

    这一切风险最终将导致什么结果，目前仍然难以预料。埃塞认为，它解释了比特币价格目前波动剧烈的原因。“我们现在没理由认为，一切有识之士应该就各国政府在监管方面的反应达成共识。而且，尽管每个人都在宣传比特币的基本原理，但涉及这些基本原理的信息依然有大量信息不断传来。比特币的价格持续变化也就不足为奇了。”

    不过，这种价格波动跟某些角落里传出的观点完全是两码事，比特币的价格并不是一群人白日做梦的结果。退一步说，尽管邮件中指出的比特币单价5万美元起码来说谈不上准确，但这种观点只是一个起点。逻辑更加严密、预测涵盖了某些孤注一掷的小概率需求的数学模型绝不仅仅只是一种可能性，也许它事实上已经以不同的版本存在于许多投资者的硬盘里了。

    苏珊•埃塞认为，与思考特定加密货币的价值问题相比，思考比特币的创新将给金融业带来怎样的巨变更令人激动。“真正动脑筋想一想我们今天在银行系统做的事情……我们会惊讶的发现，时间已经到了2014年，我们居然还在按照这样的模式进行商业运作。凡事都会变，这是自然的事。唯一令人不可思议的是，商业模式至今还没有改变。”（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    One fascinating adoption scenario frequently floated among bitcoin adherents is specific to retail. Online retailers' razor-thin profit margins get a huge boost when they pay a bitcoin processor's fee of about 1% instead of credit card fees of 2-3%. How long will it be, some ask, before a major retailer offers a discount for those paying in bitcoin, as a way to maximize that increased profit margin? Such a discount could drive significant bitcoin adoption in a very short timeframe.

    Still, Athey believes that cryptocurrency also faces challenges that could kill it in its crib, above all from government regulations. "There's [only] a small number of big countries," and adverse regulation in just a few of them could render cryptocurrency far less functional in the long term.

    It's just as uncertain whether, even if cryptocurrency becomes part of how we transact, bitcoin will be the only, or even the most adopted. "There's a big probability that there's a zero market share for bitcoin" in the future, says Athey, as competing cryptocurrency systems integrate desired features, better functionality, or simply more effective marketing campaigns. The price plunge following recent revelations about "transaction malleability" in the bitcoin code point to the dangers of even perceived systemic flaws. A division in the cryptocurrency market could keep future values of individual systems, including bitcoin, relatively low. (Disclosure: Athey consults with Ripple Labs, creators of a competing cryptocurrency system.)

    The outcomes of all of these risks are still very hard to predict, and Athey thinks this explains the current volatility in bitcoin's price. "There's no reason to think right now that all reasonable people should agree on the regulatory reaction of various governments. [And] even if everyone was just broadcasting the fundamentals, a lot of information has been coming out about the fundamentals. It's not surprising that the value should be changing."

    Still, this is much different than the impression from some corners that the price of bitcoin is nothing more than a shared fantasy. While the email pointing to a $50,000 bitcoin is imprecise to say the least, it's a starting point. A more rigorous mathematical model integrating demand projections with probabilities of certain make-or-break contingencies isn't just possible -- it likely already exists, in various versions, across various investors' hard drives.

    For Susan Athey, though, the question of a specific cryptocurrency's value seems less exciting than contemplating the broad changes that bitcoin's innovation will bring to finance. "When you really think about what we do today in the banking system ... it's kind of stunning that that's the way we do business in 2014. It seems very natural that things will change. It's only surprising that they haven't changed already."