华尔街对新兴市场的看法为什么这么分裂

    我猜只有经过这个阶段后，局势的发展才会出现变数，原因是现在的新兴经济体和过去相比存在相当大的差异。实际上，重点在于人们要意识到二者之间存在下面七个关键差别：

    • 10年来，新兴市场主权资产的平均质量明显提高——评级从“Ba2/BB”上升到了“Baa3/BBB”【依据的是投资者普遍关注的摩根大通全球新兴市场债券指数（EMBIG index）】；

    • 新兴市场的整体债务/GDP比例仅为35%，远低于以往；

    • 债务结构明显改善——短期债务规模下降，货币错配现象大为减少；

    • 新兴市场持有8万亿美元国际储备，形成了相当大的资金缓冲；

    • 大多数新兴经济体实际上都取消了僵化的汇率机制，而这种机制面对投机者的侵袭时显得特别脆弱；

    • 一些具有系统重要性的新兴经济体似乎已经可以接触到西方主要央行重新启用的掉期工具；

    • 公司层面，企业普遍变得更有韧性，而且能更好地应对金融震荡。

    当然，这种对新兴市场资产的整体判断并不适用于所有国家和地区。阿根廷等一些国家特别容易受到影响，原因是它们还包含着很大的特殊政治风险——考虑到它们满满当当的政治日程，这种风险还将继续存在一段时间。不过，作为一个资产类别来说，以往威胁新兴市场的因素——比如范围不断扩大的连续违约、汇率持续过度上升以及国际货币基金组织（IMF）参与的多项紧张谈判——对前者的影响已经显著减弱。

    尽管新兴经济体对市场震荡仍然敏感，但和过去局势不利时相比，新兴经济体目前在金融方面的系统性威胁已经大为下降。它们的自我保护程度超过了10年前，金融结构也普遍变得更加牢固。此外，针对新兴市场风险的广泛探讨已经持续了很多个月份，从而降低了金融市场出现系统性意外事件的可能性。

    话虽如此，但在自鸣得意之前，我们应该记住另一个重要因素，那就是如今新兴市场在全球经济增长中的分量远远超过以往。

    IMF的数据显示，10年来新兴市场在全球GDP中的比重已经从20%上升到了38%（按购买力平价计算，这个数字将更高）。此外，按主要货币计算，过去10年全球GDP的实际增长几乎有三分之二来自这些国家和地区。

    当然，没有那个国家比中国更能凸显人们新近发现的新兴市场日益增长的系统重要性。目前中国是世界第二大经济体，占全球GDP的12%，是10年前的三倍多。实际上，单凭这一个原因，密切关注中国抑制国内信贷过快增长的举措就有可能给投资者和决策者带来很大收获。

    如今，新兴市场震荡更多地通过经济渠道对全球其他地区产生持续性影响，而不是金融渠道，而且前者的作用要远大于后者。因此，情况最终将变得更加微妙。所以，新兴市场已经不再是一个性质统一的资产类别，虽然这个认识有悖于人们对整个新兴市场做出大胆预期的本能意愿。相反，新兴市场是一个存在技术性关联的集合，但各个成员国在经济方面的差异相当大。新兴市场作为一个资产类别，它的投资方法应该高度差异化。（财富中文网）

    本文作者穆罕默德•艾尔-俄莱恩是太平洋投资管理公司即将离任的首席执行官兼联席首席投资官。

    译者：Charlie

    I suspect that it is only after this stage plays out that the script will evolve differently, reflecting some notable changes between today's emerging economies as a group and those of yesteryears. Indeed, it is important to recognize the following seven key differences:

    • The average asset quality of EM sovereigns has improved markedly in the last ten years -- from Ba2/BB to Baa3/BBB (as measured by the widely followed EMBIG index);

    • At just 35%, their combined public debt-to-GDP is considerably lower than before;

    • The composition of debt is a lot better -- fewer short-term obligations and much lower currency mismatches;

    • At $8 trillion, international reserve holdings provide considerable funding buffers;

    • Most emerging economies have effectively exited rigid currency regimes that were particularly vulnerable to speculator attacks;

    • Some of the systemically important emerging economies seem to have ready access to reactivated swap facilities at major western central banks; and

    • At the corporate level, businesses are generally more resilient and better able to navigate financial volatility.

    Of course, what is true for the asset class as a whole is not true for every country. Some like Argentina and Ukraine are particularly vulnerable as they also incorporate heightened political idiosyncratic risks -- a dimension that will be around for a while given the packed political calendar in several countries. Yet, as an asset class, EM is considerably less prone to the old threats of spreading serial defaults, sustained currency overshoots, and multiple tense IMF negotiations.

    Notwithstanding their continued sensitivity to volatility bouts, today's emerging economies constitute much less of a systemic financial threat than they did in the bad old days. Their degree of self-insurance is greater than what it was 10 years ago, and their financial structures are generally more robust. In addition, there has been extensive discussion of EM risks over a period of numerous months, making a systemic surprise event in financial markets less likely.

    Having said that, and before we let ourselves slip into complacency, we should remember another important fact: Today's EM are a much bigger part of the global growth equation.

    According to IMF data, EM's share in global GDP have increased from 20% to 38% in the last 10 years (and even more in PPP terms). Moreover, this group of countries has contributed almost two-thirds of real global GDP growth in the past 10 years at prevailing exchange rates.

    Of course, no single country exemplifies the newfound systemic growth prominence of emerging markets more than China. China is now the world's second-largest economy, accounting for 12% of global GDP -- three times more than a decade ago. Indeed, for this reason alone, both investors and policymakers would be well-served to keep a close eye on China's efforts to control excessive domestic credit growth.

    These days, the durable impact on the rest of the world of an EM disruption will operate much more through economic channels and less through financial ones. As such, it will end up being more nuanced. So, contrary to the natural desire to make bold predictions for the asset class as a whole, this is no longer a homogenous asset class. Instead, it is a collective of technically linked but economically quite diverse names; and it is an asset class that warrants a highly differentiated investment approach.

    Mohamed A. El-Erian is the outgoing chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco.