乌克兰事件不只是一场经济危机

    穆巴拉克倒台后，埃及人相信繁荣和民主触手可及。然而在穆巴拉克下台后的过渡期中，掌权的武装部队最高委员会（Supreme Council of the Armed Forces）不仅没有解决旷日持久的经济问题，用他们自己的话说，也没能“为民主铺平道路”。穆罕默德•穆尔西——埃及第一位民选领袖掌权后，他一心想将穆斯林兄弟会（Muslim Brotherhood）的权力制度化，结果在这个过程中几乎导致国家经济全盘崩溃。一年之后，全体埃及人走上街头示威，要求罢黜穆尔西——对于这一要求，军方似乎非常乐意效劳。

    埃及人在社交媒体上表示，他们的经历对于乌克兰人民具有警示意义。如果在当时，埃及的领袖们——先是军队指挥官，后是穆斯林兄弟会——能够创造机会，使得埃及人可以用民主的方式表达他们的不满，那么埃及现阶段不确定的政治局面、不稳定的国家形势，以及时断时续的暴力事件或许都可以得到避免。2011年埃及人的起义不单单是对经济不满，但2013年6月末及7月初的大规模游行，至少有一部分原因是埃及人对当时恶化的经济条件的回应：燃料短缺、滚动式灯火管制、通货膨胀、关键基础设施的迅速恶化，以及穆尔西明显的独裁倾向。如果埃及人知道，他们本可保留向领袖们追责的权利，或许就不会让军队回到政治家手里了。然而当时他们还相信，总统穆尔西正努力扭转经济崩溃的局势，并为此负起责任。

    当然，乌克兰与埃及不同，但并非完全不同。乌克兰的新领袖们——如果称得上是领袖的话——不仅需要颁布一系列政策以挽救国家经济，还需要建立一种机制，确保民众在领导人有负重托时有权追究他们的责任。（财富中文网）

    史蒂文•A•库克是外交关系协会Hasib J. Sabbagh中东问题资深研究员,著有《为埃及而奋斗--从纳赛尔到解放广场》（牛津大学出版社出版）。

    译者：朱毓芬/汪皓

    Following Mubarak's fall, Egyptians believed that prosperity and democracy were within their grasp. Yet the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which held power in the immediate post-Mubarak period, did little to address Egypt's yawning economic challenges nor -- in the officers' own words -- did they "pave the way for democracy." When the country's first democratically elected leader, Mohammed Morsi, came to power he presided over a near economic collapse while seeking to institutionalize the power of his Muslim Brotherhood. After a year, Egyptians took to the streets en masse to demand Morsi's ouster -- a call the military seemed only too happy to oblige.

    As Egyptians have made clear on social media, their experience is a cautionary tale for Ukrainians. Egypt's present political uncertainty, its instability, and its spasms of violence might have been avoided had the country's leaders -- first military commanders and then the Muslim Brothers -- provided an opportunity for Egyptians to process their grievances through democratic institutions. The uprising in 2011 was not solely about economics, but the enormous demonstrations of late June and early July 2013 were at least in part a response to worsening economic conditions such as fuel shortages, rolling blackouts, inflation, the rapid deterioration of critical infrastructure, and Morsi's clear authoritarian tendencies. Had Egyptians understood that they would be able to hold their leaders accountable, they likely would not have supported the return of the armed forces to politics, yet they believed that President Morsi was working to make it impossible to hold him responsible for the country's near economic collapse.

    Ukraine is different from Egypt of course, but not all that different. The country's new leaders -- if they are actually leaders -- not only need to pursue policies that will pull the country from the economic brink, but they need to establish the mechanisms for citizens to hold them accountable should they fail.

    Steven A. Cook is the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square(Oxford University Press).