巴菲特绝口不谈股市

    对于股价是高还是低，巴菲特喜欢用股市总价值和GDP进行比较。一年前他就提到了这个办法。去年美国GDP增长了1.9%，而股市涨幅接近GDP 的16倍。一年前，美国股市的总市值是GDP 的133%。去年的牛市过后，现在这个数字是154%。

    这个数字曾经达到过更高的水平——1999年时的最高点是190%，但这样的高点并不会非常频繁地出现。它并不意味着股市马上就要迎来暴跌，但它确实意味着股市的上升空间可能已经不是很大。巴菲特曾在2001年提到，股市价值和经济规模的比例在70%-80%之间时买入股票的投资者会获得较高的收益。这就是说，股市得重挫48%，才能回到巴菲特所说的买入区间。

    尽管如此，巴菲特和他的经理人仍然在寻找值得出手的股票。2013年，伯克希尔增持了富国银行（Wells Fargo）和IBM，这两只股票只有在经济和整个股市表现良好时才有可能上涨。去年，伯克希尔总共向股市增资了47亿美元。

    今年，关于自己什么时候退休以及随后谁将掌管伯克希尔的问题，83岁的巴菲特仍未透露任何新消息。他只在股东信的末尾谈到了今后由谁负责伯克希尔的运营，而且几乎是逐字逐句地照搬了一年前、乃至过去几年的话。唯一不同的是伯克希尔的员工人数，现在这个数字是330745人，高于一年前的288000人。

    2011年4月，巴菲特表示自己患上了一期前列腺癌，伯克希尔的继任规划随即成为一个热门话题。接受治疗后，巴菲特很快重新投入了工作，而且再次开始一如既往地频繁出差。和去年一样，巴菲特说他觉得自己好得不能再好了。

    就像他曾经说过的那样，巴菲特计划卸任后把自己的工作一分为二。一名继任者将成为伯克希尔经营实体的首席执行官，另外一、两名继任者将负责管理伯克希尔的投资。巴菲特说，可能调整继任者人选，但他已经确定了哪些人会在他突然离职的时候接手这些工作。但只有他和董事会知道这些人是谁。

    现在看来，投资方面的负责人马上就要敲定。几年前，巴菲特聘请了投资经理托德•康布斯和泰德•韦斯切勒来帮他管理伯克希尔的投资。在今年的股东信中，巴菲特说康布斯和韦斯切勒每人都为伯克希尔管理着70多亿美元的资金，而且去年两人的业绩不仅跑赢了大盘，还好于他本人。如果康布斯和韦斯切勒没有接替巴菲特的工作，听起来他们至少能得到一封评价不错的推荐信。

    经营方面，许多人都把艾吉特•吉安视为最有希望的候选人。吉安是伯克希尔旗下最大保险公司的负责人。今年，巴菲特把吉安的大脑称为“一座点子工厂”。他还表示，吉安的业绩“远非其他保险公司CEO能比”。此外，吉安负责的保险公司在2013年将利润提高了四倍以上。

    巴菲特还说，伯克希尔的另外两名高管——格雷格•阿贝尔和马特•罗斯——是“非凡的经理人”。阿贝尔管理着伯克希尔旗下公用事业公司MidAmerican，罗斯则是铁路公司BNSF的负责人，外界也经常将他们列为巴菲特的潜在接班人。但今年阿贝尔和罗斯出现在同一句话中，而且这句话还谈到了BNSF的另一名高层凯尔•艾斯，后者甚至没有出现在去年的股东信里。

    这是不是意味着吉安的确领先其他人一个身位呢？也许吧，但只有巴菲特自己才知道答案。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Buffett's favorite gauge on whether equities are expensive or cheap is to compare the total value of stocks to gross domestic product, and he alluded to this comparison a year ago. Last year, GDP rose 1.9%. Stocks rose nearly 16 times that. A year ago, stocks collectively were trading at a value equal to 133% of GDP. After last year's market gains, we are now at 154%.

    The metric has been higher -- it peaked at 190% in 1999 -- but not too often. That doesn't mean stocks are headed for a crash, but it does mean they may not have much room to grow. Back in 2001, Buffett said investors who buy when the relationship of stock values to the economy falls in the 70% to 80% range should do well. That means stocks would have to plummet 48% before we are back in Buffett buy territory.

    Even so, Buffett and his managers are finding stocks to buy. In 2013, Berkshire bought more shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) and IBM (IBM), two companies that are likely to go up only if the economy and the rest of the market does well. All told, Berkshire put $4.7 billion of new money into the stock market last year.

    Buffett also reveals nothing new this year about who would take over Berkshire if, or when, the 83-year-old executive retires. The only section in which Buffett talks about who will run Berkshire in the future comes at the very end of the annual report and is nearly word-for-word the same as a year ago, as it has been for the past few years. The only difference is the number of employees who work at Berkshire. It is now 330,745, up from 288,000 a year ago.

    Berkshire's succession planning became an issue after Buffett announced in April 2011 that he had been diagnosed with stage 1 prostate cancer. Buffett went through treatment for the cancer, returned to work shortly after, and has resumed his normal heavy travel schedule. Buffett says, like last year, that he has never felt better.

    As he has said in the past, Buffett's plan is for Berkshire to split his job in two when he leaves the company. One person will become the CEO of Berkshire's operating company. Another person or two will be left in charge of managing Berkshire's investment portfolio. Buffett says the names of his successors may change, but he says he has picked who should get those jobs if he were to leave the company suddenly. But only he and the board knows who those people are.

    It appears that the investing job is close to being locked up. A few years ago, Buffett hired money managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler to help run Berkshire's portfolio. In this year's letter, Buffett says Combs and Weschler each manage more than $7 billion of Berkshire's money. And they both outperformed not only the market but Buffett himself last year. If Combs and Weschler don't get the job, at the very least it sounds like they will be able to get a nice reference.

    As for the operating job, Ajit Jain, who heads up Berkshire's largest insurance unit, is seen by many as the frontrunner. This year, Buffett calls Jain's mind "an idea factory," and says that he has built a business that "no other insurance CEO has come close to matching." What's more, profits at Jain's insurance unit more than quadrupled in 2013.

    Buffett also says Greg Abel, who runs Berkshire utility MidAmerican, and Matt Rose, who co-heads railroad BNSF -- two other Berkshire executives who are often talked of as possible successors -- are "extraordinary managers." But they get grouped into the same sentence, along with another BNSF executive Carl Ice, who didn't even get a mention last year.

    Does that mean Jain is pulling ahead of the pack? Perhaps, but only Buffett knows.