乌克兰：别担心，要冷静

    俄罗斯威胁要在乌克兰南部的克里米亚半岛发动战争，进而吞并这个毗邻黑海的地区。在这种情况下，大家可能认为乌克兰新政府谈到岌岌可危的国内政治局势时会显得惊恐不已。

    如果这样想就错了。相反，基辅的官方态度是：别担心，请镇静。

    上个月革命后才掌握政权的技术官僚在过去几天里把乌克兰局势描述为基本稳定且充满机遇——至少在公开场合是这样说的——他们极力声明，不会和俄罗斯发生武力冲突。

    说这番话可能只是给自己壮胆：他们的期望是，如果保持镇定，灾难就不会降临到自己头上。俄罗斯的军队数量是乌克兰的四倍，几乎可以肯定，双方的任何军事对抗都将以俄方胜利而告终。

    但尽管如此，乌克兰新政府安抚人心的态度和欧美外交机构的躁动不安形成了鲜明对比。这场危机让东西方关系陷入了苏联解体25年来最为紧张的状态，欧美官员正在匆匆忙忙地寻找化解危机的办法。

    周六上午，乌克兰方面再次传递出保持冷静的信息——乌克兰代理外交部长安德里?杰希察在基辅和记者见面时做了这样的表态。杰希察是一位经验丰富的外交官，在加拿大阿尔伯塔大学（University of Alberta）获得政治学博士学位。他在亲俄派总统维克托?亚努科维奇逃离乌克兰后出任代理外长。此前，乌克兰的大规模抗议活动已经持续了几个月。2月22日，乌克兰安全部队打死了约80名抗议者，亚努科维奇随后被赶下了台。

    杰希察在周六表示，原定于3月16日举行地方公投的克里米亚绝不可能通过投票脱离乌克兰、加入俄罗斯。尽管已有无数克里米亚人告诉记者，他们打算为脱离乌克兰投上一票，杰希察听起来仍然信心十足。克里米亚半岛紧邻俄罗斯，1954年之前一直是俄罗斯领土——时任苏联领导人的尼基塔?赫鲁晓夫把这个地区送给了那时还是苏联加盟共和国的乌克兰。杰希察说：“克里米亚现在是乌克兰领土，以后也是乌克兰领土。乌克兰边境不可侵犯。”但他没有说明哪些具体因素或者政治方案能为这番话提供后盾。

    要制定清晰的策略，乌克兰方面面临的问题之一是可供他们选择的方案极为有限。

    虽然欧美官员表示克里米亚的公投不符合国际法，但当地新组建的亲俄罗斯政府似乎已经下定了决心，而且乌克兰方面看来几乎没有办法来阻止这次公投。一位记者问，在这场引起全世界领导人关注的风波中，乌克兰是不是更多地是一个受害者，而不是参与者，杰希察似乎一时语塞。随后，他说道，这次公投没有得到乌克兰认可，按国际法应该判定为不合法行为，“唯一的抗议途径就是宣布公投结果无效。”乌克兰通过这种抗议就能保住克里米亚吗？杰希察没有说明这个问题。

    杰希察告诉记者，美国国务卿约翰?特里上周建议组建“联络小组”，乌克兰相信，它将使乌克兰和俄罗斯得以就克里米亚局势进行面对面的协商。然而，截至目前双方还没有落实直接对话问题。2月底，克里在罗马对记者表示，这样的会面要取决于“俄罗斯进行磋商的意愿”。

    上周六，又有约70辆俄罗斯军车进入克里米亚。乌克兰国防部估算，目前俄罗斯已在克里米亚驻军1.8万人左右。美国总统奥巴马和欧盟领导人都表示，俄罗斯的干预是违法行为，他们都赞成对俄罗斯实施制裁。

    除了克里米亚危机，乌克兰官员在谈到关乎乌克兰前途的经济问题时几乎没有表现出焦急情绪，令人感到好奇。原因也许是欧美方面已经在过去几周承诺为乌克兰政府提供数十亿美元的贷款和援助。

    尽管如此，今年乌克兰格里夫尼亚的汇率已经下跌了近20%。同时，去年秋天爆发大规模示威活动以来，乌克兰的外汇储备据信已经急剧减少。抗议示威导致了亚努科维奇政权的垮台，而引发抗议活动的原因是他拒绝和欧盟签署旨在加强双边贸易关系的联系国协定（Association Agreement）。

    尽管国内金融局势严峻，乌克兰新任经济发展部长、曾在亚特兰大埃默里大学（Emory University）获得MBA学位的巴维尔?舍列梅塔上周四在基辅告诉记者，乌政府的目标是“实现中期高增长”，而且乌克兰的经济状况远好于五年前。

    乌克兰亟待解决的经济问题之一是俄罗斯可能切断对乌克兰的天然气供应。2009年初就曾出现过这种情况，当时造成数百万乌克兰人在冬季气温低于零度的情况下饱受严寒之苦。

    针对这次的经济危机，俄罗斯能源巨头——俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）首席执行官阿列克谢?米勒威胁要切断对乌克兰的天然气供应，原因是乌方尚未支付2月份的费用。乌克兰高度依赖俄罗斯天然气，而且由于乌克兰地处西欧和俄罗斯之间，从俄罗斯输往西欧的天然气中有25%左右要经过架设在乌克兰境内的管道。

    不过，外长杰希察对Gazprom的威胁不以为然，声称没有什么可担心的。上周六，杰希察和记者见面时说：“如果俄罗斯要切断天然气供应，没关系。我们可以考虑其他资源，比如木材。”看来这番话是杰希察即兴而发，事先几乎没有考虑。他还说：“很简单，不供热我们也过得下去，因为春天已经来了。所以我们非常乐观。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    With Russia threatening to wage war in Ukraine's southern peninsula of Crimea and annex the Black Sea territory, you would think that the country's new government would sound panicked about the precarious political state of their country.

    In that, you would be wrong. Instead, the official message in Kiev is: Don't worry, stay calm.

    Over the past few days, the technocrats thrust into office by last month's revolution have, at least in public, portrayed their country as largely stable and bursting with opportunities, as they significantly downplay the prospect of a violent conflict with Moscow.

    Their tone might well be a matter of whistling in the dark: A hope that if they remain calm, no disaster will befall them. Russia's military has four times the number of troops as Ukraine, leaving Moscow the near-certain winner in any fight.

    Yet even so, the reassuring attitude from Ukraine's new leaders stands in marked contrast to the diplomatic frenzy in Washington and Europe, where Western officials have scrambled to find a way to roll back the crisis—the deepest East-West tensions since the Soviet Union collapsed a quarter-century ago.

    Ukraine's latest message of calm came on Saturday morning, when the country's acting Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsa addressed reporters in Kiev. Deshchytsa, a seasoned diplomat with a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Alberta in Canada, was appointed after the Russia-friendly president Viktor Yanukovych fled for his life. He was driven from office after months of giant demonstrators ended with security forces killing about 80 protesters on February 22.

    On Saturday, Deshchytsa dismissed any possibility that Crimea would vote to break away from Ukraine and join Russia, when that region holds a local referendum on its status on March 16. Deshchytsa sounded confident, even though countless Crimeans have told journalists that they intend to vote for secession. The peninsula adjoins Russia, and was part of Russia until 1954, when Soviet leader Nikita Krushchev gifted it to Ukraine, then a Soviet republic. "Crimea is and will remain Ukrainian land," Deshchytsa said, offering no specifics or political plan to back up his statement. "The borders of Ukraine are inviolable."

    Part of the problem for Ukrainian officials in forging a coherent strategy, is that their options are extremely limited.

    Although U.S. and E.U. officials have deemed the referendum in Crimea illegal under international law, the new Russian-aligned local government seems determined to proceed with the vote, and there appears to be little way for Ukraine to stop it. When one reporter asked Deshchytsa whether Ukraine was more of a victim than a player in the drama that has gripped world leaders, he seemed at first unable to answer. The referendum, he said, would be ruled illegal under international law, since Ukraine has not endorsed it. "There is no other way to protest but to say that the results will not be valid," he said. Yet he failed to explain how that would keep Crimea as part of Ukraine.

    Deshchytsa told reporters Ukraine was confident that a "contact group" proposed last week by Sec. of State John Kerry, would allow Ukraine and Russia to negotiate face-to-face over Crimea's status. So far, however, no direct talks have been set, and on Thursday, Kerry told reporters in Rome that such a meeting would depend on "Russia's willingness to do this."

    About 70 more Russian military troop carriers rolled into Crimea on Saturday, and Ukraine's Ministry of Defense estimated that Moscow now has about 18,000 soldiers in the peninsula. Russia's intervention has been deemed illegal by President Obama and E.U. leaders, all of whom have voted to impose sanctions against Russia.

    Away from the Crimea crisis, Ukraine's officials display curiously little anxiety, when discussing the other issue on which the country's future depends: Its economy. That might be because E.U. and U.S. officials have in the past week committed to billions of dollars in fresh loans and grants to Kiev.

    Even so, the local currency has fallen nearly 20% this year, while the country's foreign currency reserves are believed to have dropped sharply, since the giant demonstrations began last Fall. The uprising collapsed Yanukovych's regime after he refused to sign an "association agreement" with the E.U., which would have increased trade links with Europe.

    Despite the country's dire financial state, Ukraine's new Minister of Economic Development, Pavlo Seremeta, who has an MBA from Emory University in Atlanta, told reporters in Kiev on Thursday that the government was aiming for "high growth in the medium term," and that Ukraine's economy was in far better shape than it was five years ago.

    One urgent economic issue facing Ukraine is the prospect that Russia might disrupt its gas supplies, as it did in early 2009, when it left millions of Ukrainians freezing through sub-zero winter temperatures.

    In an echo of that economic crisis, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller on Friday threatened to halt the Russian energy giant's gas flows to Ukraine, saying that the country had failed to pay its February bill. Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russian gas, and about 25% of Western Europe's natural gas flows from Russia through the pipelines that cross Ukraine, since the huge country straddles the two regions.

    Still, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Deshchytsa brushed off Gazprom's threats, saying that they were nothing to worry about. "If Russia cuts the gas supply, no problem," he told reporters on Saturday. "We will probably just look for other resources. Wood," he said, appearing to speak off the cuff, with little forethought about his words. "Simply, we can stay without heat, because there is Spring on the streets. So we are very optimistic."