克里米亚危机中的美俄经济账

    笨蛋，这是经济。

    俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京周二签署议案正式批准克里米亚加入俄罗斯，全然无视周末美国总统奥巴马发出的经济制裁威胁。虽然有些人认为在乌克兰发生的这一切是由于地缘政治态度（ 比如，亚利桑那州参议员约翰•麦凯恩就将俄罗斯的举动归咎于奥巴马政府在外交政策上“令人不安地缺乏现实态度”），但从经济贸易角度分析，可以让人对整体形势有更清楚的了解。

    简言之，俄罗斯和美国能毫无忌惮地反目，是因为两国关系恶化可能造成的经济损失很小。根据研究公司高频经济（High Frequency Economics）卡尔•温伯格的分析，美俄之间的贸易联系微不足道：

    2013年美国对俄商品出口总计仅110亿美元，不到美国GDP的0.1%。美国自俄罗斯的商品进口总计270亿美元，略低于美国GDP的0.2%。

    美俄之间的直接金融联系也很少。根据（财政部），俄罗斯人持有1390亿美元美国国债，基本上不持有美国公司债或股票——至少不是直接持有。俄罗斯在美国的直接投资看来也很少。反过来，美国居民在俄罗斯持有700亿美元的长期证券和140亿美元的直接投资。

    相比之下，欧盟经济对于俄罗斯的依赖程度要高得多，欧盟大量的天然气供应都来自于俄罗斯气田。这一点或许能解释为什么上周末美国宣布经济制裁时，欧盟没有像美国那么强硬。

    可与之对比的是美中经济关系。与俄罗斯不同，中国是美国重要的出口市场：根据国会研究服务部（Congressional Research Service）的数据，如果将美资公司在华销售额与美国公司的出口额加在一起，中国市场规模将达到3000亿美元。2013年，中美贸易总额超过了5千亿美元，在两国经济总产出中占到了相当比例。

    这些统计数据也有助于解释为什么通常在联合国安理会（United Nations Security Council）议题中支持俄罗斯的中国，日前在谴责俄罗斯的投票中投了弃权票。（财富中文网）

    It's the economies, stupid.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin signed legislation officially annexing Crimea on Tuesday, in blatant disregard of threats of economic sanctions that President Barack Obama announced over the weekend. And while some have considered the events in Ukraine the result of geopolitical posturing (Arizona Senator John McCain, for instance, has blamed Russia's actions on the Obama administration's "disturbing lack of realism" on foreign policy.), economics and trade offer a much clearer view of the situation.

    Put simply, Russia and the U.S. are free to antagonize each other because they have very little to lose economically from deteriorated relations. According to analysis from Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics, trade ties between the U.S. and Russia are minuscule:

    U.S. goods exports to Russia totaled just $11 billion in 2013, equivalent to less than 0.1% of U.S. GDP. U.S. goods imports from Russia totaled $27 billion, just under 0.2% of U.S. GDP.

    The direct financial linkages between the United States and Russia are also small. According to [the Treasury Department] Russians hold $139 billion in U.S. Treasury securities and virtually no U.S. corporate bonds or equities -- at least directly. Russian direct investment in the United States also appears minimal. In the other direction, U.S. residents hold $70 billion in long-term securities and $14 billion in direct investment in Russia.

    Meanwhile, the European Union is far more reliant on Russia for its economic health, as much of the E.U.'s supply of natural gas comes from Russian gas fields. This may explain why the E.U. has been less forceful than the U.S. in its sanctions announced this weekend.

    By contrast, take a look at the United States' economic relationship with China. Unlike Russia, China is a very lucrative source for U.S. exports -- it constitutes a $300 billion market for U.S. firms if you combine both exports and sales in China by firms with U.S. investment, according to the Congressional Research Service. Total trade between China and the U.S. reached more than half a trillion dollars in 2013, a significant chunk of both countries' total economic output.

    These statistics also help explain why China -- which often sides with Russia on questions brought to the United Nations Security Council -- abstained from a vote to condemn Russia's actions in Eastern Europe.