人民币大战略开始亮剑

    多年来，全世界的投资者都知道，人民币只有一个前进方向，那就是升值。

    上周，中国人民银行（the People's Bank of China）宣布将人民币每日交易波动范围从中间价上下各1%扩大到2%。分析师随后预计，中国未来将允许人民币升值，从而更吻合中国经济的相对实力，而此举正是朝着这个方向迈出的又一步。但上周市场开盘后，人民币实际上稳步下行，创下了近一年来的新低。

    一般认为，这种局面是中国人民银行一手策划的——它首先大举抛售人民币，随后又协同中国国有银行以及出口商共同采取了这样的行动。上周四，《金融时报》（Financial Times）在一篇报道中这样写到：

    在中国人民银行的持续干预之下，人民币从一个月前开始下跌，但大多数企业和银行都在境内市场保持观望态度，认为人民币贬值将是短期现象。

    不过，交易员透露，从国有石油公司到私营出口商，市场上的主要参与者近几天来都出现了退让，现在正在针对人民币为期更长的贬值调整自己的仓位。

    因此，看起来中国人民银行、中国国有企业和私营公司全面参与了压低人民币汇率的行动。这种策略对出口商的吸引力显而易见，因为人民币贬值对中国的出口导向型经济而言意味着更多的收入。但这步棋并不仅仅是为了在中国经济表面呈现滑坡趋势的时候为出口商提供帮助。

    康奈尔大学（Cornell University）经济学家、《美元陷阱：美元巩固全球金融控制权的秘密》（The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance）一书的作者伊斯瓦•普拉萨德认为，此举是中国政府一项复杂行动的一部分，行动的目的是缓慢实现中国金融市场的自由化，同时让人民币在全球经济中发挥更显著的作用。普拉萨德说：“扩大人民币汇率波动范围和人民币走低是一个整体。从借此获得国内政治支持的角度来看，我觉得中国人民银行面临着压力。它得让人们看到，扩大波动范围不会立即造成人民币币值蹿升。”

    因此，中国人民银行必须和其他方面联手带动人民币贬值，以便让具有政治实力的出口商感到满意。但同时，它也给了人民银行以及中国政府内部的改革派人士进一步解放经济政策的腾挪空间。汇丰银行（HSBC ）中国首席经济学家兼经济研究亚太区联席主管屈宏斌写道：

    中国从三个渠道实现人民币国际化：加强人民币在外贸结算中的作用——在这方面人民币已经取代欧元，仅次于美元；鼓励人民币跨境投资；建立人民币离岸交易中心。

    换句话说，中国正在设法帮助人民币晋级为储备货币。成为国际储备货币有很多好处，包括提升地缘政治实力，以及有能力在国际市场上进行低成本借贷。但要实现这个目标，中国就必须放弃对人民币汇率的控制，同时放宽资本管制。也就是说，允许外国人加大对中国公司的投资力度，同时允许中国人对海外投资。所有这些措施都会影响人民币币值。中国人向海外投资将压低人民币汇率，让更多投资进入中国则将提高人民币币值。中国人民银行扩大人民币交易波动范围将在一定程度上减轻这项新经济举措给中国经济带来的压力。

    我们习惯于认为中国总是在设法降低人民币汇率，以便为自己的出口型经济提供帮助。但上周联合压低人民币币值的行动表明，这个世界第二大经济体已经开始停止协同低估本币，中国开始采取的政策最终将让人民币升值并在全球经济中发挥更大的作用。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    For years, investors around the world knew that China's currency was going just one way: up.

    After the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced last week that it would allow its currency to trade in a wider daily band of 2% rather than 1%, analysts expected this to simply mark another step in the direction of allowing the currency to appreciate to a value more in line with the relative strength of the Chinese economy. But when trading began last week, the renminbi actually fell steadily, to its lowest level in nearly a year.

    The conventional wisdom is that China's central bank engineered this move, first by aggressively selling renminbi itself and then in coordination with state-owned Chinese banks and Chinese exporters. Here's a Financial Times report from last Thursday:

    The renminbi's decline began one month ago with sustained intervention by the People's Bank of China, but most companies and banks remained on the sidelines in the onshore market, anticipating that depreciation would be shortlived.

    However, traders said important market players -- from state-owned oil companies to private sector exporters -- had capitulated in recent days and were now positioning themselves for a weaker renminbi for longer.

    So it would appear that the Chinese central bank, state-owned companies, and the private sector are engaged in a full-court press to drive down the value of the yuan. The appeal of this strategy is clear for exporters, as a weaker yuan means fatter revenues for China's export-dominated economy. But the reason for this maneuvering goes beyond helping exporters get through a period when the Chinese economy appears to be weakening.

    According to Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University and author of The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance, the move is part of a complicated dance in which the Chinese government is attempting to slowly liberalize its financial markets and allow the renminbi to take on a more prominent role in the global economy. "The widening of the trade band and the decline of the yuan are part of the same story," Prasad says. "In terms of getting domestic political support for this move, I feel the PBOC was under pressure to show that this would not immediately lead to a jump in the renminbi's value."

    So the PBOC had to coordinate the depreciation of the renminbi in order to satisfy politically powerful exporters, but it was also a move to give the central bank and reformers inside the Chinese government wiggle room to further liberalize its economic policy. As Qu Hongbin, co-head of Asian Economic Research and Chief Economist at HSBC has written:

    China has a three-pronged approach to renminbi internationalisation: expand the currency's role in foreign trade settlement -- it has already overtaken the euro to become the second to the dollar -- encourage its use in cross-border investment, and develop offshore renminbi centres.

    In other words, China is trying to help its currency ascend to the status of a reserve currency. Being an international reserve currency has many benefits, including increased geopolitical power, as well as the ability to borrow cheaply in international markets. But to get there, China is going to have to give up its control of the value of the remninbi, as well as loosen its capital controls. That means allowing foreigners to invest more heavily in Chinese companies and permitting Chinese citizens to invest money abroad. All of these moves are going to effect the value of the renminbi. Chinese investing money abroad will push the value of the renminbi down, allowing more outside investment in China will push it up. And the PBOC allowing more volatility in the remninbi will relieve some of the pressure that all this new economic activity will have on the Chinese economy.

    We're used to seeing China work to keep the value of its currency down to help its export-driven economy. But last week's coordinated depression of the yuan is a sign that the world's second-largest economy is moving away from a concerted effort to undervalue its currency and toward policies that will lead to it ultimately appreciating and taking on a larger role in the global economy.