泰国经济还经不经得起折腾

    之前，泰国曾暂时决定在七月份举行大选，但许多人质疑选举能否如期举行。相比今年早些时候抵制选举时的形势，支持民主党的反政府抗议者们获胜的希望依然不大。（他们提出的解决方案是：任命一届临时的“人民政府”）。

    由于没有明确的解决方案，许多人担心最终的结果将是暴力冲突——而这也让投资者和企业界更加担忧。

    一月份，丰田汽车公司曾警告，泰国的危机将危及未来在该国的投资。四月份，本田汽车（Honda）宣布，将5.3亿美元的生产设施施工至少推迟六个月。

    瑞士信贷分析师沙迪拉泰在2月份的分析报告中曾预测，此次风波将使泰国旅游业遭遇重创。理由之一是：来自中国大陆的游客越来越多——占泰国游客总数的比例，从几年前的8% - 9%增加到了现在的20%，而中国人对政治事件更加敏感。此外，今年的“马来西亚旅游年”（Visit Malaysia Year）活动也会使泰国流失大批游客。

    现在就判断英拉下台以及随后的事态发展会给泰国经济带来多大影响还言之尚早，但肯定会有赢家。根据沙迪拉泰的分析，泰国政局急转直下的话，游客会掉头就走。虽然泰国的政局动荡不可能给泰国国内任何政党或者改革议程带来好处，但马来西亚和印尼肯定会迎来更多游客。泰国陷入政治危机之际，这两个国家的旅游业业绩数字就会飙升。(财富中文网)

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Elections have been tentatively set for July, though many question that they will happen. Anti-government protestors, who align with the Democrat party, will have no better shot at winning than when they boycotted elections earlier this year (their proposed solution: appointing an interim "people's government").

    The lack of an obvious way out has many fearing the only outcome will be violence -- and that seems to be worrying investors and the business community more than it has in the past.

    In January, Toyota warned Thailand's crisis could jeopardize further investment in the country, and in April, Honda (HMC) announced that it would be holding off on planned construction of a $530 million manufacturing facility in Thailand for at least six months.

    Credit Suisse analyst Santitarn Sathriraithai, in a February analyst note, predicted tourism would be hit harder this go-round, too. One reason: the growing number of tourists from Mainland China -- who now represent 20% of Thailand's visitors, up from 8-9% a few years ago -- who tend to be more sensitive to political events. This year's "Visit Malaysia Year" campaign will also likely eat into Thailand's tourism numbers.

    It's too early to tell just how much economic fallout Thailand will really feel from Yingluck's ouster and what follows, but there will be sure winners: By Sathriraithai's analysis, when Thailand's politics head way south, so do the tourists. While Thailand's upheaval is unlikely to benefit any domestic political party or reform agenda, Malaysia and Indonesia are sure to see more visitors. Their tourism numbers tend to shoot up when Thailand's in crisis.