如果拉尔夫•劳伦公司没有了拉尔夫

    但我们还不知道，如果缺少拉尔夫，这家公司会陷入什么样的状态。我们理解为什么这家公司不太可能公开讨论继任者问题。很少有公司这样做。但我们不一定要知道这项计划的内容，我们只需要知道公司存在这样的计划。在我们看来，这就是拉尔夫•劳伦公司的不确定之处。

    身为首席执行官，拉尔夫•劳伦不可能在每次董事会议开始时都说：“大家讨论一下我的继任者问题吧。”此外，与其他双层股权结构公司中的标志性大股东——比如逐步优雅地淡出耐克（Nike）的菲尔•奈特——不同的是，拉尔夫对产品设计和品牌战略方向仍然发挥着至关重要的作用。

    因此，一方面我们当然希望他继续担任CEO；而另一方面，我们需要在某种程度上相信，即使有一天拉尔夫•劳伦离开了，这家公司也不会乱套。

    问题：所以向拉尔夫提出的问题是，他是否已经授权董事会在外部寻找下一任首席执行官，还是会从内部选出接班人？如果是后一种情况，拉尔夫是否会选择大卫•劳伦（营销执行副总裁）作为其继任者？向彼得森、首席运营官内梅罗夫、法拉和“董事长办公室”其他成员提出的问题是，他们是否相信确实存在继任计划？这似乎是个伪命题，但鉴于这家公司的权益价值为130亿美元，而且有一位投票权超过60％的股东，所以我们必须清楚地了解这个问题。

关于手头现金的堆垒

    目前，拉尔夫•劳伦公司手中的现金规模前所未有，不巧的是，现在是20年来收购机会最少的时候。具体来说，在今后5年中，这家公司的经营活动应该会产生近70亿美元的现金，而维持性资本支出可能为17.5亿美元，分红可能需要8.5亿美元，还有10亿美元用于股票回购，以抵消期权的摊薄影响——共计36亿美元左右。这样，还剩下34亿美元现金（而且它手头已经有了5亿美元净现金）。

    问题：你会不会督促董事会（或者说拉尔夫）大力加强股票回购力度？这样做的回报将超过持有越来越多的现金。但真正的问题是，有多少可供投资的高回报资本项目能让你通过运用这些资金来提高收入增长率和/或利润率？

    关于周期性利润率风险的附加问题（我们充分意识到，现在已经远远超过了假设的五分钟时间限制）

    你们约40%的现金流来自美国的百货公司业务。虽然这远低于零售业务产生的现金流，而且国际销售也处于起步阶段，但这仍是一个大问题。虽然在所有大品牌中，贵公司的不动产和在百货公司领域的定位很可能具有最强的防御能力，但依然存在这样一个事实，那就是百货公司业务的整体利润率刚刚度过了上升周期的第五个年头，现在的利润率正处于最高点；而且正如大家所想到的那样，此前还没有哪个利润率上升周期能延续五年以上的时间。

    问题：如果我们发现贵公司美国批发渠道的利润率回落，你觉得导致它下降的宏观因素是否也会影响你们的零售业务？你认为在整个行业的利润率出现滑坡的情况下，你们是否还能保持利润率水平？需要通过哪些手段来帮助你们实现这个目标？（财富中文网）

    作者是金融研究机构Hedgeye Risk Management董事总经理兼零售行业负责人。

    译者：Lina

    But what we don't know is what the company will look like in a Ralph-less state. We understand why the company is unlikely to openly discuss succession. Few companies do. But we don't necessarily need to know its plan -- we just need to know that it has one. That's where we're unsure about Ralph Lauren.

    We can't imagine that the CEO starts off every board meeting saying, "Let's talk about who's going to take my job." Also, unlike other iconic majority holders in a dual-class structure company -- like Phil Knight at Nike (NKE), who exited gradually and gracefully -- Ralph remains critical to product design and the strategic direction of the brand.

    So on one hand, we absolutely want him to remain in his current role. But on the other, we need to gain some confidence that the company will not miss a beat in the event that we wake up one day and Ralph Lauren is no longer a part of the company he built.

    Question: So the question for Ralph is whether he has given the board a mandate to go external for the next CEO, or if it will come from within? If the latter, will Ralph hand the keys over to David Lauren (EVP marketing) as his legacy? The question for Peterson, Nemerov, Farrah and the rest of the "Office of the Chairman" is whether or not they have confidence that a succession plan actually exists? This seems like a bogus question, but it's one we need to be crystal clear on for a company with $13 billion in equity value and has one holder who accounts for over 60% of the voting power.

On your pile of cash

    Ralph Lauren today has never had this much cash before, which happens to come at a time when there are fewer acquisition opportunities than at any time in the past 20 years. Specifically, over the next five years, the company should generate nearly $7 billion in cash from operations, and maintenance capex of maybe $1.75 billion. Tack on another $850 million in dividends, another $1 billion in stock repurchases to offset the dilutive impact of options. That's about $3.6 billion, and leaves an extra $3.4 billion in cash -- on top of the $500 million in net cash you already have.

    Question: Will you push for the board (i.e. Ralph) to meaningfully step up stock repo activity? You'll get paid more for that than for building a war chest of cash. But the real question is how many high-return capital projects can you invest in to deploy that capital in a way that will accelerate top line growth and/or margin improvement?

    Bonus question on cyclical margin risk (knowing full well that we're already well over our theoretical 5-minute time limit)

    About 40% of your cash flow comes from U.S. department stores. While that is down materially from retail and international sales were both in their infancy, it's still a big pill to swallow. Your real estate and positioning within department stores is probably the most defendable of any major brand. But one fact remains -- the department store group as a whole just completed year five of a margin expansion cycle and is now sitting at peak margins. There has never been a margin expansion cycle that's lasted longer than ... you guessed it ... five years.

    Question: If we see margins correct in your U.S. wholesale channel, do you think that the macro factors causing the decline would also hit your retail business? Do you think you can sustain margin even in the event of a broader industry margin correction? What levers do you have to pull to help you deliver?

    Brian McGough is Managing Director and Retail Sector Head at Hedgeye Risk Management.