欧洲经济还没有走出危险区

    乌利希特别关注的是法国经济的恶化。“欧洲过去有两大稳定器——法国和德国。现在只剩一个。在法国，退休太早，公司管理者往往是前政府官员，政商联系密切，因此创业者很难挑战既有竞争者。”他担心欧元区的未来越来越“落到德国这唯一一个稳定器的肩上。”

    严重的经济衰退和高失业率尚不足以降低劳动力成本。“我不断听同事们说西班牙的劳动力成本已显著下降，”他说。“但还是太高。南欧国家依然没有解决劳动力成本增长快于生产率增长的问题。”

    乌利希还指出，欧洲经济的平稳期没有得到好好的利用。“没有用来实施所需的改革，”乌利希说。“人们的态度是，欧元危机已经结束，收益率仍相当低，我们不需要做什么。”

    乌利希特别担心一些突发事件可能损伤信贷市场的信心。“如果希腊违约，影响可能蔓延，导致其他国家利率上升，产生更多违约，甚至可能退出欧元。”乌利希希望欧元能得以保留，按施罗德的方法解决问题。不幸的是，他说，施罗德的遭遇让欧洲现任领导人们望而却步。他说：“他们害怕他们最终会落得和施罗德以及社会民主党一样的下场。”

    南欧可能已经错失机会。改革的最好时机是21世纪第一个十年的中期左右，当时时间充裕。更困难的是取消几十年来在经济停滞、预算捉襟见肘时实施的种种法规和限制，削减财政支付风险重重。

    欧洲领导人们不断地从一个“解决方案”向另一个解决方案摇摆，瞄瞄德国大选，瞅瞅银行资产质量考核，再看看旨在阻止通货紧缩的巨额货币刺激方案。他们忽略了真正该做的事情。如果欧洲不做出一些艰难的决定，市场将代他们做出选择。届时必将传出一声巨大的爆裂声，响彻全球。（财富中文网）

    译者：早稻米

    Uhlig is especially concerned about the deterioration in France. "Europe used to have two great stabilizers, France and Germany. Now it has one. In France, the retirement age is too low, and companies are often run by former government figures and are too politically connected, so that it's difficult for entrepreneurs to challenge entrenched companies." He worries that the future of the eurozone is increasingly "on the shoulders of just one stabilizer, Germany."

    The severe recession and high jobless rates have not done nearly enough to lower labor costs. "I keep hearing from colleagues that labor costs have come way down in Spain," he says. "But they're still too high. The southern countries haven't solved the problem of letting wage costs run far ahead of gains in productivity."

    Uhlig also notes that Europe's period of economic calm hasn't been put to good use. "It hasn't been used for the types of reforms that are needed," says Uhlig. "The attitude is, the euro-crisis is over, yields are still fairly low, and we don't have to do anything."

    Uhlig is particularly concerned with potential triggers that might undermine confidence in the credit markets. "If Greece defaults, it could set off a contagion that would raise rates for the other nations, causing more defaults and a possible exit from the euro." Uhlig would much prefer that the euro stay in place, and the problem be addressed by the Schröder method. Unfortunately, he says, the Schröder experience haunts Europe's current leaders. "They fear they'll end up like Schröder and the Social Democrats," he says.

    Southern Europe may have missed its chance. The best time to reform was when times were flush in the mid-2000s. It's far more difficult to undo regulations and restrictions imposed over decades when economies are stalled and budgets are stretched to the limit, making a fiscal spending jolt highly risky.

    Europe's leaders keep careening from one "solution" to another, fixating on the German elections, then on asset quality reviews for banks, then on huge monetary stimulus programs to prevent potential deflation. They're missing what really needs to be done. If Europe doesn't make some tough decisions, the market will make choices for them. That would deliver a giant, cracking sound heard round the world.