“僵尸银行”成欧洲最新经济刺激行动中的定时炸弹

    欧洲银行为这些做好准备了吗？

    有些银行准备好了，但很多银行并没有。它们仍旧有数十亿欧元的未确认损失在蚕食它们的资本金。这是银行不进行放贷的真实原因——它们没法放贷。试图通过设置阻碍迫使它们这么做，看来不会起多大作用。如果有什么作用的话，可能也事与愿违，因为这会暴露这些僵尸银行。没有比银行纷纷倒闭更能打击市场信心的事了。

    欧洲央行是否会袖手旁观，看着这些银行倒闭，这一点令人怀疑；欧洲央行随时可以收回这些政策。但所有这些都凸显了，让欧洲走回经济真正复苏的正轨有多么困难。

    如果欧洲央行真的想让欧洲经济继续发展，它应当从下而上，逐步实施。第一步是僵尸银行资本重整。向这些机构短期借贷现金并不解决问题——它们需要股本。这意味着这些银行实际上切实承认它们多年来承担的损失，以便能在公开市场筹集股本。它们不能在公开市场上筹集的资本，不论是多少，都可以从欧洲央行或一些国家政府获得，也许是德国（无所谓）。

    这并不是什么经济火箭科学。这就是美国政府在信贷危机之后为美国的银行系统所做的事情。这项问题资产救助计划（TARP）最终成功地让银行回到了起点，让它们有时间愈合伤口，并从内部开始再次进行放贷。最终，美国政府将手头持有的银行股份卖给公众（且大多盈利）。虽然需要几年的时间来实现，但它们最终还是实现了。如今，美国的经济增长率是欧元区经济增长率的4倍。

    但我们在这里也要为德拉吉说几句。在欠缺某种银行联盟的情况下要实施这样的计划很困难，欧洲政界一些人近两年来一直在拖后腿。不幸的是，除非出现危机，政客们很少会采取行动。欧洲央行的新放贷计划可能给了他们采取行动所需要的一个危机契机。（财富中文网）

    译者：早稻米

    Are European banks ready for this?

    Some are, but many are not. They still have billions of euros in unrecognized losses sucking up all their capital. That’s the real reason why banks aren’t lending — they can’t. Trying to force them to do so by creating disincentives doesn’t seem like it is going to do much. If anything, it could backfire as it would expose the zombies. Nothing kills confidence like a rash of bank failures.

    It is doubtful the ECB will stand by and watch banks collapse; it can pull these policies at any time. But all this highlights just how difficult it has become to get Europe back on the road to real economic recovery.

    If the ECB really wants to get the economy going, it needs to start from the bottom and build its way back up. The first step would be to recapitalize its zombie banks. Lending cash to these institutions on a short-term basis just isn’t cutting it–they need equity. That means allowing the banks to actually recognize the losses they have carried for years so that they can raise equity on the open markets. Whatever capital the banks can’t raise in the open markets, they could receive from the ECB or some national government, perhaps Germany (it doesn’t matter).

    This isn’t economic rocket science. It’s what the U.S. government did with its banks following the credit crisis. This policy (TARP) successfully reset the banks back to zero, giving them time to lick their wounds and organically start lending again. Eventually, the government sold their stakes in the banks back to the public (mostly at a profit), but it took several years to get there–but they got there. Now the U.S. has a growth rate that is three times greater than that of the eurozone.

    In Draghi’s defense, it would be difficult to implement such a plan without some sort of banking union, something European politicians have been dragging their feet on for nearly two years. Unfortunately, politicians seldom act unless there is a crisis. The ECB’s new lending plan might just give them the crisis they need to get in gear.