风投行业的结构正在发生变化

    从技术角度讲，这趟旅程还远未结束。计算机已经从由人操控变为所有计算机和互联网云端相连，也就是所谓的“物联网”，就连最悲观的行业分析师也必须承认，这样的转变孕育着众多新机遇。Dropcam、GoPro和Nest的发展只是冰山一角，但从中可以看到将来的趋势。

    当然，最强大的业界成员绝不会停滞不前。

    早期风投已经意识到需要利用这种趋势，这就是为什么许多传统风投公司在核心基金之外还设立了“机会型基金”，其作用就是要更多地抓住私募市场（即上市前市场）的价值。对于有限合伙人来说，机会型基金通常是更加经济的投资对象。

    传统风投业并没有遭受灭顶之灾——它得到了补充。

    许多知名有限合伙人也已经看到了“既定比例机遇”，并成立“直接投资实体”，以便更迅速地获得已经纳入其经理人投资组合的公司既定比例的股份。这种趋势预计将持续下去。不过，价值从公募市场转向私募市场所引发的最强烈反应是把公募市场投资者推向私募市场。上市公司的技术投资者在后期融资阶段造成了竞争，如果愿意，这些投资者可以变得对价格不那么敏感。

    在私募市场获取的价值还让一些对冲基金和其他大型非私募市场投资者参与到后期风投中。其中有许多机构都缺乏技能、专注力、经验和气质，无法成为优秀而有耐心的私募市场长期投资者。试图在风投市场套用对冲基金思维无法让人预见到什么好结果。马克•安德烈森的文章《毁掉高增长科技初创公司的十种方法》（10 Ways to Damage Your High-Growth Tech Startup）最近在Twitter上引发激烈探讨，其中就谈到了一些这样的问题。

    From a technology perspective, our journey is nowhere near over. Even the most somber of industry analysts must acknowledge that the shift from computers as devices controlled by humans to smart devices that are all computers connected to an Internet cloud — the so-called “Internet of Things” — is breeding massive new opportunities. Just see the growth of Dropcam, GoPro and Nest for the tip of the iceberg in what is to come.

    Of course, the strongest industry players don’t stand still.

    Early-stage VCs have realized that they need to capitalize on this trend, which is why many traditional VCs have set up “opportunity” funds that sit alongside their core funds as a means of capturing more private-market (pre IPO) value. Opportunity funds typically have better economics for the LPs who invest in them.

    Traditional VC isn’t being gutted — it’s being supplemented.

    Many prominent LPs have also recognized the “pro rata opportunity” and have set up “direct investment vehicles” themselves to take pro rata stakes in their managers portfolio companies. Expect this trend to continue. The biggest response to the public-turned-private value capture, however, has been the push for public market investors to move into the private sphere. Public-company tech investors creates competition in late-stage financings and these investors can afford to be less price sensitive if they choose.

    The value capture in the private markets has also led some hedge funds and other major non-private-market investors to become late-stage VCs. Many of these investors lack the skills, focus, experience and temperament to make great, patient, long-term, private-market investors. Trying to shoe-horn a hedge-fund mentality into venture capital markets cannot portend a happy outcome. Marc Andreessen captured some of this sentiment in his recent “10 Ways to Damage Your High-Growth Tech Startup” Tweetstorm.

    当科技市场不可避免地进入下一个下行周期后，所有公募市场投资者都将重新捡起自己的日常工作，并且放弃重建和重组剩下的那些资本过剩公司这项艰难任务。互联网泡沫破裂后我们曾经见识了这样的场面，而这次的结果也不会有什么不同。公募投资者把许多头寸出售给了二级市场投资者。如果某位同行并不真的打算解决问题，就很难和他们一起确定相应的股权结构。

    为什么风投公司会坚守岗位并在金融市场经历巨变时去解决问题呢？因为这就是它们的工作。如果我们想在雨过天晴之后和所有的风投界同行以及企业家共事，我们的声誉就极为重要。尽管我们有时候会激烈竞争，但这种合作则互利的“博弈理论”将迫使风投行业展露更好的行为。

    在份额固定的权益持有者、公司投资者和公募市场新生力量带来的市场新趋势作用下，后期融资的价值陡然上升。对一个行业中的顶尖企业来说这或许不算什么，但随着人们竞相参与他们所认为的绝佳融资活动，“顶尖”的定义显然会变得牵强起来。

    When the tech markets goes through their next inevitable bear cycle, every public market investor will return to their day jobs and abandon the hard work of rebuilding and restructuring the remaining over-capitalized companies. We saw this movie already after the dotcom collapse and the sequel will be no different. Publics sold many of their positions to secondary investors. It’s hard to work out the cap table with your peers when one of them has no real intent in fixing the problem.

    Why do VCs stick around and fix problems in a massively changing financial market? Because this is all VCs do, and if we intend to work with all of our fellow VCs and entrepreneurs when the rain ends and the sun shines again, our reputations matter greatly. This “game theory” of mutual interests in collaboration — even as we occasionally compete fiercely — is what forces better behavior in our industry than otherwise might exist.

    The result of these new market trends of pro rata takers, corporate investors and public market entrants has led to a sharp spike in the valuations of late-stage financings. While this might not matter for the industry’s best companies, the definition of what is “best” will clearly be stretched as people compete to get in on perceived great deals.