欧洲如何走出经济泥潭？

    日本最近的经济刺激措施似乎也并未奏效。其激进的计划实质上就是由央行加大货币供给以应对通货膨胀，但并未达到预期效果。

    日本真正需要的是私人投资，而不是金融工程。欧洲也是如此。在上周四公布的数据中，最令人担忧的是欧洲的私人相关投资第二季度下降了1.1%。公司投资也减少了0.8%，连续第10个季度呈负增长。更糟糕的是家庭投资，萎缩幅度达到2.4%。据德国经济研究所（German Institute for Economic Research）统计，从金融危机爆发以来，欧盟国家的固定资本形成总值累计下降了15%。

    欧元区的投资差额目前占GDP的比例达到惊人的2%，约每年2,000亿欧元。欧洲必须尽快采取措施解决这一问题，否则将会陷入毁灭性的通货紧缩螺旋，恐怕要等数年之后才能解脱。

    那么，欧洲如何才能吸引到更多的投资？

    修改税法，鼓励并奖励人们将资金投入到股票市场将是一个良好的开端。降低或至少临时性地取消资本收益税，也可以帮助实现这一目标。虽然欧洲经济环境不景气，但欧洲公司的业绩还不太寒碜，所以投资这些公司可不是做慈善。

    欧洲也可以开发一种针对私营部门借贷的通用投资工具。德国经济研究所已经提议建立这样一只基金，该研究所认为，这种基金可以提供足够的推动力，让欧洲大陆的投资活跃起来。他们希望基金规模最低达到1,000亿欧元，在欧洲各地进行投资——不仅包括边缘国家，也包括核心国家。

    这两种方式都需要协调欧洲各国的投资与银行法律，而欧盟在这方面已经拖延了数年时间。

    要在欧洲实现真正可持续的投资会面临重重困难。这不仅需要欧盟各国更紧密地融合，也需要改变投资者对欧洲经济及其劳动力的观念。投资者需要确信，欧洲真心希望发展，领导人不会为了短期政治利益而牺牲投资者。如果投资者确立了信心，欧洲将会出现爆炸式增长。但愿欧洲的领导人不会花上四分之一个世纪的时间才能最终解决这一问题。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Japan’s latest move to boost its economic fortunes isn’t looking like it’s working, either. The radical plan, which would see its central bank essentially doubling the money supply in a bid to fight off deflation, hasn’t worked out as well as some had hoped.

    What Japan needs is some real private investment, not more financial engineering. The same holds true for Europe. Among the most worrisome statistics released Thursday were those concerning investment, which decreased 1.1% in the quarter. Corporate investment was down 0.8%, its 10th consecutive quarter of negative growth. Even worse was household investment, which shrank a horrifying 2.4%. Since the start of the financial crisis, gross fixed capital formation across the European Union has been down a cumulative 15%, according to the German Institute for Economic Research.

    The investment shortfall across the eurozone now stands at a staggering 2% of GDP, or about 200 billion euros a year. Something must be done to address this investment shortfall as soon as possible or else Europe could find itself caught in a destructive, deflationary spiral that could take years to unravel.

    So, how can Europe attract more investment?

    Changing its tax laws to encourage and reward people who invest their money in the equity markets would be a good start. Lowering capital gains taxes, or eliminating them altogether, at least temporarily, could help accomplish this. European companies aren’t doing too shabby at the moment, despite the sour economic environment, so investing in them is hardly charity.

    Europe could also move to create a common investment vehicle aimed at private sector lending. Such a fund has been proposed by the German Institute for Economic Research, which believes it could provide the boost needed to get investment rolling on the continent. They would like to see 100 billion euro (minimum) fund for investments to be made all across the continent—not just on the periphery but in the core countries as well.

    Both ideas would require harmonization of investment and banking laws across the continent, something that the E.U. has been dragging its feet on for several years now.

    Achieving real and sustainable investment in Europe is going to be tough. It requires not only closer E.U. integration but also a shift in investors’ perceptions of the continent’s economy and its workforce. Investors need to be convinced that Europe really wants to grow and that its leaders won’t sell them out for short-term political gains. When that happens, Europe could see explosive growth. Let’s hope the continent’s leaders don’t take a quarter of a century to figure all this out.