并购传闻如何不胫而走

    4月份，林德扎甚至把风投家马克•安德森扯了进来。他在Twitter上问，如果安德森是苹果公司（Apple）CEO，他会收购哪家公司？安德森接了招，说Twitter和Dropbox都是理想的收购对象。随后，大量跟帖者都提出了自己的建议，比如微软（Microsoft）本该收购云存储服务商Dropbox。对于微软的收购目标，林德扎有自己的看法：“他们很可能收购Dropbox的同行Box。这个感受是我根据对Box公司CEO阿伦•利维Twitter留言的观察得来的。”

    就这样，传闻不断地出现。

    对此最为熟悉的莫过于德罗根。他离开了对冲基金行业，转而建立了一家科技初创公司Estimize，市场观察人士可以通过它来预测公司业绩。3月份，Estimize的网站Mergerize.com上线，人们可以在这里发帖，推测今后可能出现的并购。德罗根说，这个想法来自几只大型对冲基金，它们希望不断了解市场上流行的思路。

    德罗根说：“他们一直在相互联系，但绝对不能通过正式途径。”他指出，大型对冲基金的分析师和投资者都在Mergerize.com注了册，但使用的是昵称，而非真实姓名：“这就是华尔街上从众心态如此严重的原因，因为所有人都在关注别人有什么想法，他们需要知道自己是否和市场共识脱节了。”

    到目前为止，人们在Mergerize.com上的预测兑现了一条。亚特兰大地区营销技术和经营顾问阿南德•塔克尔在3月26日预计，IBM将在3个月内收购设在亚特兰大的营销初创公司Silverpop，只比正式公告早了两周。塔克尔说，他一直在密切追踪和分析这个行业的公司，包括Silverpop。

    塔克尔发帖前一天，亚特兰大一家商业期刊引述未具名消息人士的话报道称，IBM和Silverpop正在商讨收购事项，但这篇报道并未在整个美国引起关注。设有“传闻”板块的投资新闻网站24/7 Wall St.指出，尽管“IBM没有重大消息”可以披露，但当天IBM的股价上涨了近4%，而且成交量几乎翻番（塔克尔说：“像这样的准确和不准确预测一直都有，所以当Mergerize.com出现时，我觉得自己应该在那上面发帖预测一下。”）。

    不过，当并购传闻被证伪的时候，它们往往会让投资者步入歧途。匿名通信软件Secret今年背上了恶名，原因是有人用它发布虚假并购消息。有些投资者怀疑，相关公司针对自己正在考虑的并购自行制造了传闻，目的是获得市场反馈，或者投行人士通过放出“内部消息”来迫使相关公司完成并购。举例来说，德罗根指出，某些知名公司的投资者关系部门一直在给他打电话，内容都和人们在Mergerize.com上预测的并购目标有关。

    德罗根说：“这种电话游戏非常疯狂。”他罗列了一些例子：“市场有多少次预测拥有高价值房地产资产的电子产品零售商RadioShack将被收购？有多少次人们预测微软将收购黑莓（BlackBerry）？总是有这样的传闻，而希望它们变为现实总是那些投行人士。他们几乎就像是在说‘请采取行动吧！’”

    In April, Lindzon even dragged venture capitalist Marc Andreessen into the rumor mill, asking him in a Twitter chat, if he were CEO of Apple , which companies would he buy? Andreessen took the bait, naming Twitter and Dropbox as good candidates. Meanwhile, myriad followers responded with their own suggestions for deals, such as Microsoft acquiring Dropbox instead. The StockTwits founder, meanwhile, had his own ideas about a Microsoft target: “They will probably buy Box. Feels that way to me based on Levie tweets,” Lindzon chimed in, referring to Box CEO Aaron Levie.

    And so the rumor mill churns.

    No one knows this better than Drogen, who left the hedge fund world to found a tech startup, Estimize, which allows market watchers to predict financial results for companies. In March, Estimize launched Mergerize.com, for people to post their guesses about future M&A deals. Drogen says the idea came from several large hedge funds, who wanted to keep tabs on theories floating around the market.

    “They already call each other all the time, but in an official way they could never do that,” Drogen says, adding that major hedge fund analysts and investors are participating on Mergerize, but are using pseudonyms instead of their real names. “That’s why the Street is such a herding mentality, because everybody’s paying attention to what everybody else thinks, because they need to understand when they’re out of consensus.”

    So far, one Mergerize member’s prediction has even come true. AnandThaker, a marketing technology and operations consultant in the Atlanta area, predicted on March 26 that IBM would acquire Atlanta-based marketing startup Silverpop within three months, just two weeks before the deal was announced. Thaker says he closely follows and analyzes companies within the industry, including Silverpop.

    His post came a day after an Atlanta business journal reported on the negotiations, citing anonymous sources, but that report did not make national news. The investment news site 24/7 Wall St., which has a section entitled “Rumors,” noted that IBM rose nearly 4% that day, with roughly double its normal trading volume, despite the fact that “the company had no big news” to report. (“There are other such accurate—and inaccurate—predictions, so when Mergerize emerged, I thought I’d post one of those predictions,” Thaker says.)

    At least as often, however, M&A rumors lead investors astray when they turn out not to be true. The anonymous messaging app Secret gained notoriety this year when people used it to share false acquisition news. Some investors suspect that companies themselves plant rumors about M&A they’re considering in order to get the market’s feedback, or that investment bankers leak “intel” to pressure companies to close a deal. Drogen, for one, says he has been fielding calls from certain high-profile investor relations departments regarding takeover targets predicted on Mergerize.

    “The game of telephone that takes place with these things is crazy,” says Drogen, listing examples: “How many times has RadioShack been expected to get taken over for their real estate value? Or that Microsoft is buying BlackBerry ? That rumor is always going around and it’s always the bankers who want the deal to happen. It’s basically like, ‘Somebody please bid!’”