阿里巴巴IPO：对投资者来说这是一笔“捡漏”的买卖
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阿里巴巴最大的问题可能集中在“大数法则”上。阿里巴巴网站上已经销售了近3000亿美元的商品。达摩达兰的66美元股价估值是基于未来10年阿里巴巴销售额将增长500%的预期，而1.5万亿美元对于阿里巴巴看起来似乎遥不可及。沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）去年的销售额仅为这一数额的三分之一。 但阿里巴巴并不是一家美国零售商。它身处中国零售市场_——全球增长最快的经济体中增长最快的一个领域。这些数字将会变得非常巨大。 不过，阿里巴巴并不将其网站上销售的商品总额记为收入。阿里巴巴通常在其网站上销售其他公司的商品，并收取交易服务费。它将这些服务费记为收入。目前，这些服务费只相当于阿里巴巴网站总销售额的3%，最近一个财务年度总计84亿美元。达摩达兰表示，未来十年这些服务费须增至470亿美元，才值得以66美元买进该公司股票。 但要实现这一点，阿里巴巴的总销售额不一定要达到500%的增长率。随着阿里巴巴规模继续扩大，它可以要求卖家或买家支付更高比例的服务费。如果阿里巴巴将其平均服务费率提高至5%，未来十年销售额只需增加两倍就能实现达摩达兰的预期。如果费率提高至10%，销售额甚至都不需翻番。 另外，为了估量阿里巴巴的公允价值，投资者还必须考虑利润率，这很重要。去年，阿里巴巴将接近一半的服务费纳入营运利润。这样的营运利润率几乎是谷歌的两倍。基于此，达摩达兰认为，即便该公司的增长率在今后10年降至2%，阿里巴巴也只需11年多一点就能赚回其IPO筹集的资本。这相当不错了。相比之下，基于当前收益，市值3950亿美元的谷歌需要用28年才能赚回IPO筹集的资本。 所有这些都是基于投资者以IPO价格获得阿里巴巴的股票。但是，正如杜利所讲，即便该股首日交易大涨25%至82.50美元，其静态市盈率仍只有36倍。这样的市盈率肯定算高，但远远低于Facebook 100倍的市盈率和亚马逊500倍的市盈率。 阿里巴巴股票或许不是让“四十大盗”狂喜的那种宝藏，但很可能是我们在IPO市场上迄今为止，以及未来很长一段时间内，能见到的一桩可以“捡漏”的好买卖。（财富中文网） 译者：早稻米 |
Alibaba’s biggest problem could center on the law of big numbers. Alibaba already sells nearly $300 billion worth of merchandise on its site. Damodaran’s $66 stock price estimate is based on Alibaba’s sales rising 500% over the next decade, and $1.5 billion sounds like an impossibly large amount of stuff for Alibaba to sell. Wal-Mart’s sales were a third of that last year. But Alibaba isn’t an American retailer. It’s in Chinese retailing, the fastest growing segment of the fastest growing economy in the world. The numbers are going to get large. What’s more, Alibaba doesn’t count the total dollars generated by the sales of the goods on its site as revenue. Alibaba generally sells other companies’ merchandise on its website and collects a fee from buyers and sellers. It records those fees as its revenue. Right now, those fees equal a slim 3% of the total sales on its site, or $8.4 billion in its last fiscal year. Damodaran says those commissions have to grow to $47 billion over the next decade to make it worth buying the stock at $66. But Alibaba’s total sales don’t have to increase by 500% to get there. As Alibaba gets larger, it could force sellers, or buyers, to hand over a bigger slice of those sales. If Alibaba increases its average fees to 5%, its sales only have to triple over the next decade to achieve Damodaran’s predictions. If the fees go up to 10%, then sales don’t even have to double. Still, to justify Alibaba’s value, you have to consider its profit margins, which are huge. Last year, Alibaba retained nearly half of its fees as operating profits. That’s nearly double the operating margins of Google. Based on that, Damodaran thinks that even if the company’s growth rate drops to 2% a decade from now, it will take Alibaba a little over 11 years to earn back the money it raises in its IPO. That’s not bad. By comparison, it would take Google 28 years to justify its $395 billion market cap, based on its current earnings. All of this is based on investors getting Alibaba shares at its IPO price. Still, even if the stock jumps 25% on its first day, as Tully suggests, to $82.50, its trailing p/e would still only be 36. High, for sure. But still far lower than Facebook’s p/e of 100, and Amazon’s 500. Alibaba shares may not be as much of a steal as Alibaba’s thieves might have liked, but they are as close to a bargain as we have seen, and are likely to see, in the IPO market in a long time. |
