阿里巴巴上市：雅虎成最大输家

    在输家排行榜上，排在前两位的是阿里巴巴大股东雅虎（Yahoo）和阿里巴巴公司自己。雅虎拿出了大约1.40亿股。由于定价偏低，它只得到了92亿美元，而短短一天后这些股票的价值就达到了131亿，或者说雅虎错失了38亿美元的收益。对阿里巴巴本身来说，公司以自有股份筹集来的资金约为83亿美元，可谓赚的盆满钵满。但如果按每股93.89美元的价格计算，融资额将超过115亿美元。这就意味着阿里巴巴给了别人32亿美元的“小费”，超过自身市值的1%。

    现在，让我们从投资角度来看下阿里巴巴，个人投资者是众多没有拿到“内部价”的草根阶层——换句话说，就是你和我。我们希望今后十年阿里巴巴每年能带来至少10%的回报。鉴于这只股票的投机属性，这个数字相当保守。让我同时假设，为了扩张阿里巴巴将增发30%。这个数字可能也偏低，因为阿里巴巴最近一直在大肆收购——仅今年1-3月份它就斥资70亿美元收购和投资了一大批公司。

    阿里巴巴可能不会很快分红。因此我们的收益只能靠股价上涨来实现。按照上述假设，到2024年阿里巴巴的市值需从2310亿美元提高到7770亿。要知道，现在地球上市值超过6000亿美元的企业只有一家，那就是苹果公司（Apple）。

    要达到这样的市值，阿里巴巴需要实现多少盈利呢？在截至今年6月30日的第四个财务季度，阿里巴巴的净利润为49亿美元。如果今后十年它的市盈率从47倍降到20倍（20倍市盈率仍有溢价），该公司就得实现390亿美元的净利润，也就是说每年的净利润增长率都要远高于20%。除了美国政府旗下的房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac），盈利增速达到这种水平的超级明星企业也只有一家：还是苹果公司（Apple）。为了说明这个挑战的艰巨性，大家可以看看这个数字——2013年，微软（Microsoft）的利润为220亿美元。

    实际情况仍可能表明，阿里巴巴是一家伟大的公司，但它仍可能无法实现这么高的目标。对于高增长企业来说，47倍的市盈率听上去并不离谱。但要知道，阿里巴巴的规模已经非常大，按利润水平计算，它已经能进入《财富》美国500强的前50名。因此，该公司必须像一个超负荷的暴发户一样让已经颇为巨大的利润继续快速增长。这种逆天的成功案例有悖大数定律。实际上，目前的股价让阿里巴巴更像一个可供传闻的故事，而不是实实在在的投资对象。所以，大家最好置身事外，继续观赏这出好戏。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Heading the list of losers are Yahoo, a major Alibaba shareholder, and Alibaba itself. Yahoo is selling around 140 million shares. The underpricing means it will receive $9.2 billion, instead of the $13.1 billion those shares would be worth, just one day later. That’s $3.8 billion in foregone funds. As for Alibaba, it’s raising around $8.3 billion, funds that will swell its coffers. At a $93.89 share price, Alibaba would have amassed over $11.5 billion. Left on the table: $3.2 billion, more than 1% of its market cap.

    Now, let’s look at Alibaba as an investment for the great unwashed who didn’t get the insider price; in other words, you and me. We’d want a return on our Alibaba shares of at least 10% a year over the next 10 years. That’s quite a conservative figure considering that Alibaba is a speculative investment. Let’s also assume that Alibaba will issue 30% more shares to fund its expansion. We’re probably choosing a low figure here given its recent acquisitions binge: Alibaba spent $7 billion buying and investing in a sprawling portfolio of companies just in the quarter that ended on March 31.

    It’s unlikely that Alibaba will pay a dividend anytime soon. So all of our gains will need to come in the form of stock appreciation. Using those metrics, Alibaba will need to grow its market cap from $231 billion to $777 billion by 2024. Keep in mind that the market currently awards only one company on the planet a valuation over $600 billion, and that’s Apple.

    To get us there, how much will Alibaba need to earn? In the four quarters ended June 30, Alibaba posted net earnings of $4.9 billion. If its P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple of 47 falls to 20 over those 10 years—and 20 is still a premium P/E—it will need to show $39 billion in net earnings. That means earnings must grow by well over 20% a year. Other than government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, only one superstar makes that kind of money: once again, it’s Apple. To put this challenge in perspective, consider that Microsoft earned $22 billion in 2013.

    Alibaba could still prove to be a great company and still not achieve that gargantuan goal. Its P/E of 47 doesn’t sound outrageous for a fast-grower. But keep in mind that Alibaba is already a massive company with earnings that would put it in the top 50 of the Fortune 500. So it has to grow those already large earnings like a super-charged upstart. The law of large numbers is working against this remarkable success story. Indeed, at these prices, it’s more a story than an investment. So stay entertained, and stay away.