中国降息，国际股市攀升

    上周五，中国央行两年来首次下调官方利率，这一意外举措令国际股市与大宗商品市场大幅走高。

    继一连串令人失望的经济数据，以及地方银根趋紧迹象之后，中国人民银行出手降息，这是政府当局数月以来扶持经济力度最强的一次。

    中国经济正在以2009年以来最低的速率增长，虽然政府当局努力表现得对此并不紧张，但现在有最新调查数据显示，国内生产停滞，主要制造业用工全面缩减。

    中国人民银行的这一举措与全球范围内央行放松银根的趋势不谋而合，旨在抵御日益增长的通缩威胁。同时，也与美联储正准备出台的紧缩政策背向而驰——美国在经历了为期六年的“紧急状态”货币政策后迎来了逐渐强势的经济复苏。

    中国人民银行将一年期存款利率调低0.25个百分点至2.75%，一年期贷款利率调低0.4个百分点至5.6%。

    人民银行的降息公告于中国金融市场收盘之后发布，但欧洲股市听闻此消息后立即大幅上涨，原油等商品价格也闻风而动。纽约商品期货交易所石油基准合约价格每桶飙升1.50美元，涨幅为2.5%，达两周内最高水平。在欧洲，德国DAX指数上涨2%，英国富时100指数（FTSE 100）上涨1%。

    欧洲市场的攀升也源自于欧洲央行（ECB）行长马里奥•德拉吉（Mario Draghi）的一篇措辞强烈的演讲。他在发言中承诺，将采取有力措施保证欧元区不会陷入通缩陷阱。

    由于与存款利率上限、法定存款准备金率等其他管理工具的相互影响，官方利率在中国经济中起到的作用与西方国家不完全相同。并且，中国资本管控将国内货币市场与境外相隔离。因此，相较于其他国家的类似措施（例如美联储于2008经济危机前夕所出台的），中国降息政策刺激经济的作用较为有限。

    有趣的是，人民银行同时也放宽了对银行存款利率浮动区间的限制，将银行存款利率浮动区间的上限由存款基准利率的1.1倍调整为1.2倍。根据期限不同，利率可在0.35%至4%区间内浮动。人民银行对国内银行系统实施严格的75%贷存比要求。

    综上所述，此次出台的措施似乎旨在为面临诸多挑战的银行系统提供流动性支持。中国银行业的不良贷款激增，尤其是对房地产开发商和建筑公司的贷款。此外，银行也在寻求机会来自行筹资，以积累资金，满足客户认购股票的相关需求。

    上周五早些时候，人民银行已经通过其官方微博发布声明，称流动性“充裕”，以令市场各方放心。据《华尔街日报》报道，中国七天基准银行同业拆息已升至3.48%，升幅高达0.20%。（财富中文网）

    译者：Joe

    China’s central bank cut its official interest rates for the first time in two years Friday, in a surprise move that sent international stock and commodity markets sharply higher.

    The action by the People’s Bank of China, which comes in response to a string of disappointing economic data and increasing signs of tension in local money markets, is the authorities’ strongest show of support in months.

    The economy is currently growing at its slowest rate since 2009, and while Beijing has tried to appear relaxed about that, surveys are now showing output stagnating and jobs being shed across the key manufacturing sector.

    The PBoC’s action also adds to the trend of central banks across the world easing monetary policy to fight off a growing threat of deflation–a trend that goes in the opposite direction to the U.S., where the Federal Reserve is preparing to tighten policy as the economic recovery gains traction after six years of emergency measures.

    The PBoC cut its one-year deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75% and the one-year lending rate by 0.40 percentage points to 5.6%.

    It timed its announcement to come after the close of financial markets in China, but European stock markets surged on the news, as did prices for commodities such as crude oil. The benchmark contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.50 a barrel, or 2.5%, to its highest level in two weeks, while in Europe, the German DAX index soared 2% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 1.0%.

    European markets were also buoyed by a strongly-worded speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi promising aggressive action to ensure the Eurozone doesn’t fall into deflation.

    Official interest rates don’t have quite the same function in China’s economy as they do in western ones, due to their interplay with other tools, such as caps on deposit rates and statutory reserve requirements. And the market for money is in any case effectively sealed off from the rest of the world by China’s capital controls. As such, they may not have the same kind of stimulating effect that a similar move by, for example, the Federal Reserve (in the days before the 2008 crisis).

    Interestingly, the PBoC also relaxed its control of the amount that banks can offer for deposits. They can now offer 1.2 times the benchmark rate, rather than 1.1 times. These range from 0.35% to 4% depending on maturity. The PBoC enforces a strict cap of 75% on loan-to-deposit ratios in the banking system.

    Taken together, the measures look designed to support liquidity into a banking system that is facing challenges on a number of fronts. The sector is seeing a sharp rise in bad loans, especially to real estate developers and construction companies, which is hitting revenue. In addition, banks are also looking to raise capital themselves and amass cash to service clients’ demands for other stock offerings that are due next week in China.

    Earlier Friday, the PBoC had felt the need to issue a statement via its account on the Chinese Twitter-equivalent Weibo reassuring market participants that liquidity was “ample”. Benchmark one-week interbank rates had risen by an alarming 0.2o percentage point to 3.48% earlier, according to the Wall Street Journal.