放开移民政策能否拯救日本？

    尽管近来货币刺激政策有所升温，但日本经济还是连续第二个季度出现萎缩，再度陷入衰退。

    上述消息令日本政府意外受创，促使现任首相安倍晋三要求在下月提前选举。这可能破坏安倍晋三振兴日本经济的计划，即英文媒体所说的“安倍经济学”。正如我的同事杰夫•史密斯所言，安倍经济学包括短期财政刺激、央行持续购买债券、商业管制放松，以帮助日本经济实现增长，随后是数次上调销售税，以帮助削减巨额政府债务。目前，日本政府债务为该国国内生产总值（GDP）的238％，在发达国家中名列前茅。

    如今，安倍晋三放弃了于明年十月再次上调日本销售税的计划，不过，他希望保住使他能大胆果断进行经济改革的三分之二多数联盟。但在目睹日本经济今年的表现后，还有理由相信上述改革吗？

    全球经济研究机构High Frequency Economics首席经济学家卡尔•温伯格认为，答案是否定的。他声称，日本经济处于萧条期，其主要原因是该国人口正迅速萎缩。政府资金都被用于照顾老人，无力推出能帮助经济摆脱萧条的有力刺激计划。为了说明安倍经济学毫无用处，温伯格给出了下图，并解释称：

    Despite a recent ramp up of monetary stimulus, the Japanese economy shrank again for the second straight quarter, and it is now back in recession.

    The news blindsided the Japanese political establishment and motivated current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to call a snap election for next month, which could put in jeopardy his plan to revitalize the nation’s economy, dubbed “Abenomics” by the English-speaking media. As my colleague Geoff Smith has explained, Abenomics involves a short burst of fiscal stimulus, sustained central bank bond-buying, and business deregulation to help Japan’s economy grow, followed by several rounds of sales tax increases to help cut down massive government debt, which currently sits at 238% of GDP—by far the highest ratio in the developed world.

    Abe has now backed off his plans to raise Japan’s sales tax again next October, though he is hoping to hold onto the two-thirds majority coalition that has enabled him to act boldly and decisively in his economic reforms. But is there any reason to be confident in these reforms after the performance of Japan’s economy this year?

    Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, says no. He argues that Japan is in a depression, driven primarily by its quickly shrinking population. Government funds are tied up taking care of the the nation’s elderly, and there’s no room for serious stimulus to drag it out of this slump. To illustrate the fultility of Abenomics, Weinberg provides the following chart, and an explanation: