印度：下一个超级大国？

    但印度基础设施最重要的一面在于其人力资本。印度人口之所以价值连城，原因在于该国拥有大量年轻劳动力——35岁及以下人口在印度占65%，这将让印度在今后几十年里拥有强大的竞争优势。

    为实现人力资本的潜力，印度政府已经采取多项措施，旨在改善教育条件，留住行业内从事技术性工作的农民工，为所有印度人提供银行账户并进行个人理财规划教育，提供免费人寿保险，鼓励更广泛地使用计算机和互联网，以及实现劳动力的全面现代化，以迎接医疗保健、信息技术、通信和零售行业的快速增长所带来的就业机遇的激增。

    印度有可能成为超级大国的最后一个因素是地缘政治优势。自上任以来，莫迪一直在下大力气巩固印度与俄罗斯、日本和美国之间的关系。对于后三者来说，印度是个有价值的贸易伙伴，拥有巨大的消费者群体和有待开发的劳动力资源。更为重要的是，印度和这些国家建立联盟有着重要的战略意义。

    受西方经济制裁和低油价影响，俄罗斯比以往任何时候都需要印度这个伙伴，以便巩固自己在亚洲的经济支点并在影响力上和美国抗衡。与之类似，在2013年美印双边贸易额达到950亿美元的基础上，美国愿意扩大和印度的贸易规模，并利用印度来制衡中国。莫迪通过向这三个国家伸出橄榄枝展现了其外交手腕；同时，对于那些能够实现印度经济和政治利益最大化的合作伙伴关系，莫迪也持赞成态度。。

    印度也许无法一帆风顺地实现自己的目标，或者说无法按莫迪设定的时间表做到这一点。然而，印度非常有可能十分迅速地成长为经济和地缘政治领域一股重要力量。（财富中文网）

    本文作者现为商业评论员，曾在投行拉扎德和德利佳华任职，还曾为RamiusCapital对冲基金效力，握有哥伦比亚商学院MBA学位。

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：李翔

    But the most important aspect of India’s infrastructure is its human capital. What makes India’s population so valuable is its large pool of young workers — 65% of India’s population is 35 or under, giving the country a strong competitive edge in the coming decades.

    To realize the potential of this human capital, the government has launched several initiatives aimed at improving education, retraining rural workers for skilled jobs in other sectors, providing bank accounts to all Indians to teach personal financial planning, offering free life insurance, encouraging the wider use of computers and the Internet, and generally modernizing the workforce for the big jobs boomcoming up in the fast-growing healthcare, information technology, telecom, and retail sectors.

    The final factor that could position India as a superpower is its geopolitical advantage. Since his election, Modi has made a concerted effort to strengthen ties with Russia, Japan, and the U.S. For each of them, India is a valuable trading partner with a vast consumer base and labor pool waiting to be tapped. But even more significant is the strategic importance of its alliance with all those nations.

    Reeling from Western economic sanctions and low oil prices, Russia needs India’s partnership more than ever to bolster its economic foothold in Asia and counter U.S. influence. Similarly, the U.S. would like to expand bilateral trade with India, which reached$95 billion in 2013, while also using the democratic nation to balance the power of China in the region. By extending the hand of friendship to all of them, Modi is being diplomatic; but he is also keeping his options open to forge partnerships that will maximize the benefit to India, both financially and politically.

    India may not reach its desired destination in a straight line or in the timeframe that Modi has set for it, but odds are pretty good that it will become a leading player in the economic and geopolitical spheres fairly soon.

    Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, at hedge fund Ramius Capital, and has an MBA from Columbia Business School.