英国经济现08年以来最高增速

    施罗德基金管理公司驻伦敦资深欧洲经济学家阿扎德•桑加纳表示，各家各户很可能花掉大部分因油价下跌省下的钱，从而拉动零售销售。此外，仍存在大量经济学家所说的“被抑制的需求”，因为英国的复苏与美国一样，未能使工资出现任何实质性增长，尽管经济已经连续两年增长。上周公布的数据已经显示，零售销售上升超出预期，油价暴跌的早期影响开始显现。

    对消费者更利好的消息是，英国央行不大可能在经济显现活力时加息。英国央行货币政策委员会最近一次会议的记录显示，鉴于欧元区经济放缓，且快到年底时市场波动性剧增，该委员会九名成员中，已有两人放弃呼吁上调利率。此外，数据显示，该行今年早些时候采取的防止房市过热的措施，已取得预期效果。

    另一个问题在于，黄金期能持续多久。英国将于五月进行议会选举，民意调查显示，将再次出现英国两大政党都无法凭一己之力获得多数席位的局面，其部分选票被另外两个政治议程更激进的政党夺走。希望苏格兰脱离英国的苏格兰民族党，已经从偏左的工党手中夺走不少选票。与此同时，希望英国脱离欧盟的英国独立党，也抢走了保守党的大量选票。分析人士认为，随着选举临近，下届政府组建过程中的政治不确定性，很可能打击商业信心、抑制投资。（财富中文网）

    译者：Hunter

    审稿：Sissi

    Azad Zangana, senior European economist with fund manager Schroders in London, said households are likely to spend most of any windfall they get from lower oil prices, boosting retail sales. There is still a high degree of what economists call “pent-up demand”, given that the U.K. recovery, like the U.S. one, has failed to deliver any meaningful rise in wages despite two consecutive years of growth. Figures released last week already showed retail sales rising ahead of expectations as the first effects of the oil price collapse were felt.

    The better news for consumers is that the Bank of England is unlikely to respond to any signs of animal spirits by raising interest rates. Minutes from the BoE’s latest Monetary Policy Council meeting showed that two of its nine members had backed down from their call for a rate hike, in response to the Eurozone slowdown and the sharp increase in market volatility toward the year-end. Moreover, data suggested that measures taken by the Bank earlier in the year to stop the housing market from overheating had had the desired effect.

    How long that sweet spot will last is another question. The U.K. is facing elections in May, and opinion polls suggest that, for the second time in a row, neither of the two main parties will be able to form a majority on their own, having lost ground to two different parties with more radical political agendas. The Scottish Nationalist Party, which wants Scotland to leave the U.K., has made huge inroads at the expense of the center-left Labour Party. At the same time, the U.K. Independence Party, which wants to take the U.K. out of the European Union, has lured away a large part of the Conservatives’ vote. Analysts say that political uncertainty over the course of the next government is almost certain to dint business confidence and investment as the election nears.