股票回购狂潮会在今年终结吗？

    我们在过去六年看到的牛市是在多种力量作用下形成的，但股票回购是其中最重要的因素。由于低利率和充满不确定感的经济环境，美国公司手握大量现金。各大公司觉得，与其把钱花在未必能成功的内部投资上，还不如通过回购股票来回馈股东。

    回购股票和支付股息，究竟哪一种是更好的回馈方式？这个争论已经持续了好几十年。但我们都同意，各大公司一窝蜂地回购股票，已经显著地提振了股价。这张由研究公司Bianco Research制作的图表，为我们展示了回购股票是如何导致股价在经济衰退结束后持续飙升，如今已接近历史最高点的。

    Many forces have fueled the bull market we have witnessed over the past six years, but share repurchases are at the top of the list. Driven by low interest rates and an economy rife with uncertainty, Corporate America is awash with cash. Rather than spend that money on internal investments that might not pan out, companies have instead decided to return that money to shareholders by buying their own stock.

    The debate over whether it’s better for firms to send money to shareholders in the form of buybacks or in the form of dividends has gone on for decades. But we can all agree that companies ramping up their share repurchasing has buoyed stock prices. This chart from Bianco Research shows how buybacks have soared since the end of the recession and are now close to all-time highs:

    这一趋势既可以被解读为好的迹象，也可以被看作一种令人担忧的状况。一方面，一家公司只应该在非常确定自己的股票有很大涨幅空间时回购股票，因为购买价格过高的股票可不是利用股东金钱的明智方式。但正如Behind the Numbers公司分析师比尔•贝克尔最近为客户撰写的报告所指出的那样，历史显示高管和董事们往往会选择最差的回购时机。他写道：

    回购往往发生在经济景气，股价已经很高的时候。公司最终会以虚高的价格买回自己的股票，但鉴于越来越多的薪酬委员会在经济景气时分发这些红利，所以这些股票有很大一部分最终只是被管理层赎回了。

    然而，美国公司似乎仍然计划坚持回购策略。高盛公司证券策略师大卫•科斯滕表示，今年股票回购的价值还将增长18%，达到7000亿美元以上。不过贝克尔认为，有理由相信2015年至少会有一些公司的美好回购计划最终搁浅。

    贝克尔写道：“坦白说，我们认为许多公司的现金流很快就将遭遇困境，这会让他们扩大回购的举动变得十分艰难。”

    他举出了以下四家公司的例子，这些公司的大规模回购项目恐怕坚持不了多长时间了：

    1、思科系统：上个夏天，这家网络设备制造商宣布了多年来的第四次裁员。公司表示将减少6,000个工作岗位，即员工总数的8%。这是自2011年以来公司结构调整的动作之一，而这项计划光在2015年就将花费公司7亿美元。

    贝克尔认为，由于结构调整导致的支出大部分都是耗费现金的遣散费，因此我们可以预计此举将导致思科的现金告急。此外，重组过程中公司的表现也乏善可陈。思科的销售额在2014年有所下滑，自2011年起利润也在连年降低。

    但缺乏现金的思科并未停止回购股票。2014年的回购量是前一年的两倍，而回购资金则完全来自新增债务。

    2、通用磨坊：尽管这家食品制造商由于销售额的下降正在进行结构调整，但公司的股价却在去年上涨了10%。

    股票回购让该公司股价目前保持稳定，但随着该公司在截止10月份的12个月内出现了12亿美元的自由现金流赤字，他们恐怕不会有多少现金来继续回购了。

    3、可口可乐：在当下这个含糖饮料需求日益降低的时代，这个软饮料巨头正努力寻找立足点。不过可口可乐在本周二发布的最新财报显示，在连续四个季度收入下滑后，最近一个季度的销售额终于有所提高。

    为了精简产品线，以应对不断变化的消费偏好，可口可乐在2012年和2014年宣布进行结构调整，这将花费该公司数亿美元的现金。尽管存在着这些问题，这家公司去年依然设法让股价上涨了11%，这主要是其股份回购计划所致。在截止去年9月的12个月中，可口可乐购回了价值39亿美元的股票。

    4、菲利普•莫里斯国际公司：自从2008年从奥驰亚集团拆分出来后，菲利普•莫里斯公司就在跨国业务的结构调整中花费了数百万美元。近几个月来，这部分开销有了显著提高，与此同时，该公司每年还要花上数十亿美元来回购股票。为了进行回购，公司负债累累，而相当一部分购回的股票都转化为了高管薪酬。

    当利率维持在历史最低点，难以觅得投资机会时，你不能指望美国公司回避回购股票这一选择。这种回馈股东的方式十分灵活，还能将每股收益保持在很高的水平。

    但正如贝克尔指出的，投资者应当留心那些过于依赖股权回购的公司，尤其是那些在业绩每况愈下时依然这样做的公司。像本文提及的这些公司正陷于销售额下滑和债务增加的困境，投资者不能指望他们通过回购来长时间维持高股价。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    审校：任文科

    You can view this trend as a good sign or a worrying one. On the one hand, companies should only buy their shares when they are confident that the stock has a lot of room to grow, as buying overpriced shares is a terrible use of shareholder money. But, as Will Becker, an analyst with Behind the Numbers, puts in his latest report to clients, history shows that executives and directors plan buybacks at the worst times. He writes:

    Buybacks are typically initiated in good times when stock prices are high…. Corporations end up purchasing their own stock at inflated prices, only to have many of these same shares then redeemed by management as compensation committees increasingly hand out these perks in good times.

    Nevertheless, it appears that Corporate America plans to stick to its buyback strategy. Goldman Sachs equity strategist David Kosten says that share repurchases will increase by 18% this year, to more than $700 billion. Becker, however, thinks there’s reason to believe that 2015, at least for some companies, might be the year the good ship buyback finally runs ashore.

    Writes Becker, “Frankly we believe free cash flow for many of these companies could soon encounter a number of headwinds, thereby making it more difficult for them to expand their buyback programs.”

    He cites four examples of companies that could soon run into trouble maintaining their significant buyback programs:

    1. Cisco Systems: Over the summer, the network equipment manufacturer announced it’s fourth round of layoffs in as many years, saying it will cut 6,000 jobs or 8% of its workforce. It’s all part of a restructuring the firm has undertaken since 2011, a plan that will cost the company $700 million this year alone.

    Becker argues that since the majority of the expenses related to the restructuring are cash-eating severance payments, we can expect Cisco’s cash pile to be drained by this process for some time to come. On top of that, the company’s performance amid its shakeup has been lackluster. Sales shrank in 2014, while its margins have been falling every year since 2011.

    Cisco is light on cash, but that hasn’t stopped it from repurchasing its own shares. Buybacks doubled in 2014, financed wholly by new debt offerings.

    2. General Mills: The food maker’s stock is up over 10% in the past year, despite the fact that it is undergoing its own restructuring amid declining sales.

    Stock buybacks have kept share prices steady for now, but with the company posting an adjusted free cash flow deficit of $1.2 billion in the 12 months ending in October, there’s not much cash lying around to keep up the practice.

    3. Coca-Cola: The soft drink giant has struggled to find its footing in an era of falling demand for sugary drinks. Though Coca-Cola posted rising sales in its most recent earnings statement on Tuesday, that comes after four quarters of falling revenue.

    To slim down and respond to changing consumer preferences, Coke announced restructuring initiatives in 2012 and 2014 that will cost the firm hundreds of millions of dollars in cash. It too has kept its stock price up more than 11% in the past year despite these problems, primarily a result of its share repurchase program. The company bought $3.9 billion worth of its own shares over the 12 months ending in September.

    4. Philip Morris International: Since being spun off by Altria in 2008, Philip Morris has incurred millions of dollars in restructuring costs in its international operations. These charges have increased significantly in recent months, at the same time that it has continued to buy back billions per year in its own stock. The company has taken on debt to facilitate its stock purchases, much of which has been transformed into executive compensation.

    While interest rates remain historically low and investment opportunities are scarce, you shouldn’t look for Corporate America to shy away from buying back its own stock. It is a more flexible way to return money to shareholders and it helps keep earnings per share high.

    But, as Becker points out, investors should be wary of firms that rely too much on share repurchases, especially ones who do so in the face of declining performance. Firms, like the ones mentioned above, experiencing declining sales and increasing debt can’t be counted on to prop up their share prices with buybacks for very long.