美联储今夏不会加息的四个理由

    2. 就业市场没有看上去那么强劲

    2月份，美国失业率降至5.5%。受当月就业报告影响，人们再次对利率走势感到不安。但就业市场可能没有看上去那么强劲。RHB Securities Singapore经济学家托马斯•拉姆一直在观察美国的就业和失业趋势。他指出，进入2015年后，所谓的工作寻获率一直在下降。这个指标体现的是失业者在某个月份找到工作的可能性。2月份报告表明，长期失业者增多，未纳入劳动力群体的人数也在大幅上升，也就是说他们甚至都没去找工作。此外，工资并未上升。从该报告中可以看出，一年来美国就业者的平均小时工资仅提高了0.03美元。

    2. The job market is weaker than it looks

    Unemployment dropped to 5.5% in February. The jobs report for that month kicked off the latest round of anxiety about the trajectory of interest rates. But the job market may not be as strong as it looks. Thomas Lam, an economist at RHB Securities Singapore who watches the flow of workers in and out of employment, says that the so-called job finding rate—that is, the chances of an unemployed person landing a job in any given month—has been growing worse this year. Last month's report showed a rise in the number of long-term unemployed people as well as a jump in the number of people not included in the workforce, meaning they are not even looking for work.

    On top of that, wages are not rising. The February report showed that the average hourly pay of a U.S. worker has risen just $0.03 in the past year.

    3. 全球经济正在放缓

    美国经济也许终于开始强势复苏。但放眼海外，全球其他地区的经济都在放缓。欧洲地区有很大一部分都处于衰退之中，或者即将陷入衰退。最近中国也再次下调GDP目标。作为自然资源主要消费国，就算中国经济增速只是小幅下降，世界其他地区也会受到巨大影响。油价下跌虽应有利于美国经济，但它对中东、巴西和俄罗斯这样的经济体来说是一场灾难，特别是俄罗斯。美国经济和全球经济的联系比以往任何时候都要紧密，因此所有这些因素也会让美国经济稍稍放慢增长脚步。

    4. 强势美元将阻碍出口增长

    美元一直在升值，而加息只会让它进一步走强。这可能提高美国公司向世界其他地区出口产品的难度，但不管怎么样，后者对美国商品的需求都有可能下降。

    同时，随着油价下滑，世界各地的价格水平都在下跌，这可能让成本保持在较低水平。在通胀率非常低的情况下，美联储就不必急于提高利率。而且它一直也没有着急。近七年来，美国的利率一直接近于零。别指望这种情况会那么快地发生改变。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审校: 李翔

    3. The global economy is slowing

    The U.S. economy's recovery may finally be coming on strong. But take a look around. The rest of the world is slowing down. Much of Europe is in a recession or near it. And China recently cut its GDP estimate, again. As a large consumer of natural resources, even a small slowdown in China is bound to have repercussions for the rest of the world. And while lower oil prices should help the U.S. economy, it's a disaster for economies in the Middle East, Brazil, and particularly Russia. The U.S. economy is more connected to the global economy than ever before, so all of this is bound to slow America down a bit as well.

    4. A strong dollar will slow exports

    Raising interest rates is only going to make the dollar—which has already been rising against other currencies—climb higher. That's likely to make it harder for U.S. companies to export their goods around the world, where they are likely to see less demand anyway.

    What's more, falling prices around the world, along with the drop in oil prices, is likely to hold down costs here as well. With very little inflation, the Fed doesn't have to rush to raise interest rates. And it hasn't been in a rush. Interest rates have been close to zero for nearly seven years. Don't expect that to change so fast.