纪源资本合伙人：解码中国股市暴跌及其对硅谷的影响

    有哪些影响？

    在我们看来，股市下跌产生的负财富效应该相当有限。在美国，机构投资者持有的股票占整个市场的60%左右；而在中国，这个数字只有10%。因此，近来A股暴跌后，损失最大的是散户。其次，随着可以通过保证金来借款炒股，再加上人们预期股市将大涨，一年来开始投资股票的人越来越多，但A股投资账户仍不到1亿个。相对于中国13亿人口，这个数字占的比重不高。第三，在中国，股票只占个人总资产净值的很小一部分（远低于其他国家，比如美国）。因此，普通人可以从股票价值暴跌造成的损失中恢复过来。最后，向这些投机者提供资金的金融机构可能出现坏账，但坏账规模和它们的资产负债相比看来很小，这也表明本轮市场暴跌的影响相对不大。

    对中国经济有何影响？

    一般来说，股市和宏观经济走势有相当密切的联系。但就目前情况而言，中国股市的涨跌似乎已经和经济脱钩，就像美国的网络泡沫那样。受到冲击的将是一小部分中国消费者，因此我觉得损失会相当有限。这或许会略微影响中国的经济增长率，特别是在消费占中国GDP增速的比重不断上升的情况下，但如果政府为了刺激消费而进行干预，我也不会感到惊讶。当然，如果股市暴跌对消费信心产生了重大不利影响，经济放缓势头就会更明显。因此，今后几个月乃至几个季度，大家应对此予以密切关注。

    对硅谷有何影响？中国的新经济企业情况怎样？

    在硅谷，大多数人都低估了美国和中国在科技经济领域不断融合的态势。如今，这两个市场的相互依赖程度超过了以往任何时候。现在，苹果公司的最大市场是中国。到今年底，中国还将成为Uber的第一大市场。反过来，阿里巴巴、腾讯和其他中国公司一直在美国投资和收购，中国投资者在美国风投领域也变得越来越积极。

    我认为中国的新经济将继续健康而迅速地增长。还有许多基础设施有待建设，许多消费者都成了中产阶层，移动互联网用户也出现了巨大增长。这些因素应共同推动中国的新经济继续快速增长，从而消除股市造成人们财富减少而产生的不利影响。如果我没有看错，我认为硅谷受到的影响也将有限。美国最好的移动、互联网和硬件公司以及着眼于大客户的企业都将继续把中国视为成长型市场，许多美国公司将追随苹果和Uber的脚步进入中国，而且它们将看到一个竞争激烈但成果丰富、活力十足的市场。同样的，最有实力的中国科技公司和投资者也不会忽视美国这片商业乐土。

    我们已经摆脱困境了吗？

    上文已经指出，中国股市回落对中国新经济以及美国科技和风头市场的影响相当有限。不过，仍有一些风险，其中值得关注的两个风险因素是中国消费者和中国的债务水平。

    消费是中国宏观经济增长的关键组成部分，比重也越来也大。如果股市带来的恐慌、对房价下跌的担忧或者其他一些原因使中国消费者失去了信心并且停止支出，中国新经济的健康状况就可能最终受到影响。包括消费、企业和政府在内，中国总债务占GDP的比例非常高。虽然经济增长保障了中国迄今为止的还债能力，但经济增速放慢则可能带来巨大的挑战。（财富中文网）

    本文作者格林•所罗门是纪源资本管理合伙人。他最近投资的公司包括Zendesk、Nimble Storage、Pandora、Successfactors、Isilon、Domo、Square、Opendoor、AlienVault和HashiCorp。本文最初刊登在他的博客上。

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    What’s the impact?

    The wealth effect impact of the falling market should be fairly moderate in my opinion. In the U.S., approximately 60% of all equities are owned by institutional investors, in China this figure is only 10%. So, the big losers of this recent market sell off are individuals. Second, while participation in the equity markets had certainly become more popular over the past year as margin debt became available and people were seeing strong gains, the numbers I’ve seen suggest there are less than 100M trading accounts open in China. Relative to the 1.3 billion people in China, this is a small percentage of the population. Third, across the population, equities represent a small percentage of total net worth (much lower than the U.S., for example), so the average person can recover from a shock in equity values. Finally, financial institutions who’ve lent money on margin to these speculators may end up with bad loans on their books, but these seem to represent a very small percentage of their balance sheets, again pointing to a relatively muted impact of this sell-off.

    Will it impact the broader economy in China?

    Generally there’s a pretty tight linkage between equity markets and underlying macro-economic trends. In this case, similar to the U.S. dotcom bubble, the rally and then fall of Chinese stocks seems de-coupled from the underlying economy. The pain will be felt by a minority of consumers in China and, as a result, I suspect the damage will be fairly muted. This may impact economic growth rates on the margin, especially because consumption is climbing as a component of China’s GDP growth, but I wouldn’t be shocked by government intervention to stimulate consumption. Of course, if consumer sentiment is meaningfully negatively impacted by the equity market swoon, the economic slow-down could be more precipitous, so we should watch this closely over the coming months and quarters.

    What’s the impact for Silicon Valley? How about for the new economy companies in China?

    Most in Silicon Valley under-estimate the growing convergence between the U.S. and Chinese tech economies. These two markets rely on each other now more than ever. Apple’s AAPL 2.67% biggest market is now China. The same will be true for Uber by the end of this year. Conversely, Alibaba, Tencent and others have been investing and acquiring in the U.S., while Chinese investors have become increasingly active in the U.S. venture capital arena.

    I anticipate continued health and rapid growth of China’s new economy. There’s much infrastructure yet to build out, many new consumers entering the ranks of the middle class and huge growth coming in mobile internet users. These factors should conspire to continue to catapult new economy growth in China, overwhelming any negative impacts of wealth declines from the stock market. If I’m correct, I think you’ll see limited impact on Silicon Valley. The best U.S. mobile, Internet, hardware and enterprise companies will continue to eye China as a growth market, and many will follow Apple and Uber’s lead into China, finding strong local competition but a very fruitful, dynamic market. Similarly, the strongest Chinese tech companies and investors will not lose sight of the U.S. as a desired place to do business.

    So are we out of the woods?

    I’ve argued that the correction in Chinese equities will have a fairly modest impact on China’s new economy and U.S. tech and VC markets. That said, there are still risks. Two that bear watching include the Chinese consumer and Chinese debt levels.

    Chinese consumption is a critical and growing part of China’s macro-economic growth machine. If Chinese consumers lose confidence and stop spending money, due to the stock market induced panic, fears of falling home prices, or some other reason, this could ultimately spill over to China’s new economy health. China’s total debt levels, including consumer, corporate and government debt, is at a very high ratio relative to total GDP. While underlying growth has helped finance this debt to date, a slow-down could cause significant challenges as well.

    Glenn Solomon (@glennsolomon) is a Managing Partner with GGV Capital. Some of his recent investments include Zendesk, Nimble Storage, Pandora, Successfactors, Isilon, Domo, Square, Opendoor, AlienVault and HashiCorp. This post originally appeared on his blog.