为何人民币贬值可能推升美国通胀

    截至8月13日，人民币已经连续第三天贬值，当日收跌1.1%，三日累计跌幅创数十年新高。过去一周，人民币贬值引起全球市场动荡，因为投资者担心全球贸易会失衡，爆发货币战。

    对于人民币贬值，空头可能有些夸大其辞，但值得注意的是，它不仅对宏观经济产生影响，也可能影响到美国普罗大众的日常生活，从休闲娱乐的成本到牛奶的价格，无所不包。美国国内物价涨跌可能有多种原因，人民币汇率波动也可能是原因之一。

    以下我们来看一看这背后有什么联系。

    由于人民币贬值，人民币一元能兑换到的美元更少，中国消费者要花比过去更多的人民币才能买到美国的产品和服务。进口价格上涨，但中国国内的工资也保持不变，所以中国消费者购买美国商品的难度会更大。

    以美国电影视频流媒体服务商奈飞为例。该公司正摩拳擦掌，准备进军中国市场。中国最大电商阿里巴巴参与成立的新合资公司也将成为奈飞的对手。要与本土的流媒体服务竞争，奈飞就必须提供更有竞争力的价格吸引用户。这将给该公司在中国市场获得盈利带来压力。人民币汇率走低会加剧奈飞的盈利压力，因为奈飞的服务对中国用户来说会变得比较贵，该公司甚至可能不得不为了吸引客户而进一步降价。

    中国市场的利润下降可能迫使奈飞为增加收入而上调美国市场的价格。而涨价又可能导致奈飞失去一些美国客户，分析师将因此下调奈飞的盈利预期，这又给奈飞的股价施加下行压力。

    假设有一位老板，他的公司为牛奶加工厂使用的机器提供零部件。他喜欢看奈飞的视频。作为一个年收入20万美元的老板，他可能不介意奈飞提供的网上娱乐服务每月涨那么1美元，但他会在意持有奈飞股票的共同基金价值缩水，那可是上万美元的损失。为弥补这种投资损失，他会被迫上调旗下公司的零部件售价，那么加工牛奶的厂商也有必要涨价了。

    人民币贬值就是这样波及全球经济生态系统的。最终，它不仅影响美国人付费看《纸牌屋》的价格，也会改变美国超市一加仑牛奶的价格。

    当然，以上只是简单的例子，许许多多不可预知的因素都可能改变上述美国涨价的结果。按照以上预测情境，如果那家牛奶加工厂从中国购买设备零部件，其实还能因为人民币贬值而受益。而且，汇率波动的影响往往比较迟缓，不会那么快扩大到整个经济层面，何况汇率自身也受到供需等其他因素影响。中国出口价格下跌会推动人民币的需求增长，长远来看人民币币值还会反弹，那样一来，奈飞的定价又可以恢复正常。

    无论如何，以上多种因素的综合影响无疑会改变现状。这正是美国消费者应该担心的。（财富中文网）

    本文作者Kumar是科技与商业领域评论员，覆盖科技、传媒和电信行业的投资银行业务。对于本文提及的上市公司，他并未持有任何一家的股票。

    译者：Pessy

    校对：詹妮

    China devalued its currency for the third consecutive day Thursday, a drop of 1.1% from Wednesday and collectively the largest drop in decades. The devaluation has caused turmoil in markets all over the world this past week due to fears of a global trade imbalance and currency wars.

    But while the naysayers may be overstating the case, it’s worth noting that China’s currency devaluation doesn’t just have a macroeconomic impact but could also affect the everyday lives of average Americans, from the cost of entertainment to the price of milk. While prices in the U.S. may fluctuate for a number of reasons, they could also be impacted by currency movements in China.

    Here’s how this could happen.

    When the Chinese yuan is devalued, it costs a Chinese consumer more in the local currency to buy an American product or service since each yuan now buys fewer dollars. But even though the price has gone up, local wages remain the same, making it more difficult for the Chinese consumer to make the purchase.

    Take a company like Netflix NFLX 2.67% as one example, which is gearing up to enter the Chinese market. To compete with local streaming services, including a new venture by Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba BABA 2.36% , the company will have to offer competitive pricing to attract subscribers, putting pressure on its margins in China. This impact is worsened by a weaker yuan, which would effectively make Netflix more expensive for local viewers and force the company to lower prices even further to gain traction.

    Lower profitability from China might then require Netflix to raise its prices in the U.S. to boost its bottom line. But higher pricing could also lead to a loss in subscribers, which would result in analysts downgrading their projections for the streaming video provider. That would depress the stock price.

    Now consider the owner of a company that provides machine parts for a milk processing plant, and who likes to watch Netflix. While the owner, who makes $200,000 a year, may not care about a $1 per month increase in his online entertainment costs, he would care about a decrease in the value of his mutual fund that holds Netflix stock, which could amount to thousands of dollars. To make up for this loss, he in turn would have to raise the prices of his machine parts, which would then make it necessary for the company providing milk to increase its prices.

    And that’s how the currency devaluation in China can ripple through the global economic ecosystem to ultimately impact not just how much you pay to watch House of Cards, but the price of a gallon of milk on your local supermarket shelf.

    Obviously, this is a simplistic example and a myriad of unpredictable factors could change the outcome. In the above scenario, the milk processing plant could simply buy its machine parts from China to take advantage of a weaker yuan. In addition, the effects of foreign exchange fluctuations are usually slow to spread through the wider economy, and in itself are subject to other influences such as supply and demand. Cheaper Chinese exports would lead to a higher demand for the yuan, which would cause it to rise back up in value over time and enable Netflix to normalize its pricing.

    But the collective impact of several such scenarios definitely can make a difference and that’s what American consumers should be worried about.

    Kumar is a tech and business commentator. He has worked in technology, media, and telecom investment banking. He does not own any shares of the companies mentioned in this article.