美股选股指南：9支最值得买入的500强股票

《财富》美国500强排名显示的是美国哪些企业的规模最大，但没有透露其中哪些公司最具投资潜力。当然，遵循“投资需谨慎”这一原则总是有益的。一些上榜公司的股票跌得很惨，今年1月初至今的跌幅甚至达到68%。

笔者与美国500强数据专家斯科特·迪卡洛一道，试图找到今年的榜单上有哪些最值得投资的股票。我们首先筛选了那些市盈率估值低于标普500指数的股票（目前，标普500指数的市盈率为2015年预期收益的17.9倍），但是我们并未止步于此。毕竟，在进入第7年高歌猛进的牛市之后，有些市盈率最低的股票之所以便宜，往往也是有原因的，比如刚刚扭亏为盈，陷入麻烦的能源公司，在竞争中落后，或是压根不值钱。

相反，我们寻找的是那些已经展现出一些势头，并且在过去5年跑赢了标普500指数的公司（非常了不起的成就，因为过去5年里，标普500指数的回报率115.4%，包括分红）。另外，今年标普500指数公司的预期收益增长率几乎为零，惹得股民一片哀叹。有鉴于此，相较于华尔街对该指数2015年平均每股盈利增长率的预期共识，我们的标准要略高一些。我们选择的是那些今年的盈利增长率有望超过5%，并且明年将继续保持积极增长的企业。

由于预期熊市可能到来，很多投资者首先追求的是安全和稳定——当然，股民都是盼着收益的，虽然它在这个低利率时代已经算是罕见了。我们选择的这9支股票的股息率都在2%以上（即标普500指数的平均水平）。为了继续缩小选择范围，我们只保留了那些在去年提高了分红的公司，因为就长期而言，能提高分红的公司都展示出了跑赢大盘的惊人能力。

最后，我们剔除了那些今年的销售额预计将下降的公司——光这一项就排除了信安金融集团、化学品企业亨斯迈公司、美国国际纸业公司、计算机硬驱制造商西部电子公司、工业技术生产商派克汉尼汾公司、铁路运营商CSX等等。最后，我们还划掉了包装材料生产商Rock-Tenn公司，因为该公司目前正处于与米德维实伟克公司合并的过程中，等交易彻底结束后，该公司的股票也将不再以当前形式存在。

最后剩下的就只有9只股票了，我们依据投资潜力对其进行了排名：

【编者注：文中的业绩和估值采用了截至今年7月的最新数据，所以可能与6月15日《财富》杂志刊登的美国500强榜单数据有出入。】

The Fortune 500 rankings tell you a lot about the biggest American companies, but nothing about which of them have the most potential as investments. And certainly it pays to be choosy: the biggest- loser stocks on this year’s list are down as much as 68% just since the beginning of January.

Working with our Fortune 500 data guru, Scott DeCarlo, we set out to find the best stock picks among the companies in this year’s rankings. We started by screening for stocks that had a lower price-to-earnings valuation than the S&P 500, which trades at a 17.9 multiple of estimated 2015 earnings. But we didn’t stop there. After all, in the seventh year of a charging bull market, the stocks with the lowest P/E ratios are often cheap for a reason—turnaround stories, distressed energy companies, left-behinds or all-around dogs.

Instead, we looked for companies that already had some momentum, those that had outperformed the S&P 500 over the last five years (quite a feat, considering the index returned 115.4%, including dividends, in that time). And because investors are lamenting the virtually nonexistent earnings growth predicted for the S&P 500 this year, we set the bar higher than the Wall Street consensus for the index’s average 2015 EPS growth: We screened for companies that are expected to grow earnings by more than 5% this year, and to post positive growth again in 2016.

Because many investors are looking for safety and stability in anticipation of a possible market downturn—not to mention income, that rare commodity in this low-interest rate era—we screened for stocks with a dividend yield of at least 2%, the S&P 500 average. To narrow it down even further, we kept only companies that had also increased their dividend at least somewhat in the last year, since dividend growers have demonstrated an uncanny ability to beat the market over the long-term.

Finally, we eliminated companies whose sales are expected to decline this year—which knocked out companies including Principal Financial Group PFG 1.08% , chemical producer Huntsman HUN -0.54% , International Paper IP -0.23% , computer hard-drive manufacturer Western Digital WDC -3.73% , industrial tech maker Parker-Hannifin PH 0.56% , and the railroad operator CSX CSX 0.52% . Last but not least, we crossed off cardboard packaging producer Rock-Tenn RKT -1.17% because it’s merging with MeadWestvaco Corp. MWV -0.59% , and the stock will cease to exist in its current form after the deal closes.

That left us with just 9 stocks, which we’ve ranked here in order of investment potential:

[Editor’s note: Performance and valuation figures were updated just before publication, and therefore will not be consistent with the figures in the Fortune 500 list that ran in the June 15 issue of Fortune magazine.]

1. KKR

美国500强排名：356

5年总回报率（至2015年6月22日）：231%

预计今年每股盈利增长率：119.7%

股息率：8.3%

2015年预期市盈率：9.8倍

从表面上看，KKR简直是一支梦幻股：一家管理着990亿美元资金的传奇私募股权公司，其市场估值几乎只有实际的一半——而且它的股息率竟然高达8.3%。但不管怎样，投资者还是应该保有一定警惕：像私募业的其他公司一样，KKR一般采取“派利”的形式，每个季度的浮动都很大。所以尽管KKR公司上市后，年度派利总额年年上升，但到目前为止，它今年的派利支出要略低于去年同期。KKR公司的收入同样也是不均匀的，因为它的收入取决于它所投资的项目价值，以及从中获得的报酬。

不过对于能够接受这种波动性的投资者来说，KKR有几个值得入手的原因。这也是为什么有超过83%的华尔街分析师将该股评为“买入”级。首先，晨星公司指出，最近油价大跌导致该公司的能源投资十分不景气，致使KKR的股价最近有所回落，KKR目前被低估了23%以上。其次，咨询公司普遍预测，未来几年将有更多资金流入私募领域和其它替代资产经理手中，KKR公司也将从中获益。另外，KKR不久后或许将获得一笔等待已久的收益：First Data公司是KKR最大的投资之一，自KKR将其私有化后，这家公司一直陷于困境，但它在今年２月终于扭亏为盈。有些心急的投资者希望First Data最好能在今年年底就重新挂牌上市。

1. KKR

FORTUNE 500 RANK: 356

5-YEAR TOTAL RETURN (THROUGH 6/22/2015): 231%

ESTIMATED EPS GROWTH THIS YEAR: 119.7 %

DIVIDEND YIELD: 8.3%

ESTIMATED 2015 P/E RATIO: 9.8

On its face, KKR KKR 0.26% looks like a dream stock: A storied private equity firm managing nearly $99 billion that trades at a nearly 50% discount to the market—and pays a ridiculously high 8.3% dividend yield. Still, investors should be somewhat wary: As is typical in the private equity industry, KKR’s dividends—which are actually considered “distributions”—fluctuate dramatically quarter to quarter, depending on the firm’s investment exits. So while its total annual distributions have gone up each year since KKR went public, its payouts so far this year are slightly less than they were for the same period as last year. KKR’s revenues can be similarly uneven, as they depend on the underlying value of its investments and the fees it can generate from them.

But for investors who can handle that sort of volatility, there are several reasons to like KKR—and more than 83% of Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg rate the stock a “buy.” For one, the stock has pulled back recently as the slide in oil prices left several of the firm’s energy investments underwater, and now KKR is more than 23% undervalued, according to Morningstar. Plus, it should benefit as more money flows to private equity firms and other alternative asset managers, a trend consultants are predicting for the next few years. In the nearer future, KKR may also be in for a long-awaited payday: One of its largest investments, First Data, which has been struggling since KKR took it private in 2007, returned to profitability in February, stoking investors’ hopes that it could go public again as soon as later this year.