美股选股指南：9支最值得买入的500强股票

4. 梅西百货

美国500强排名：105

5年总回报率：281%

预计今年每股盈利增长率：11.1%

股息率：2.1%

2015年预期市盈率：14.9倍

美国经济的改善和油价的下跌提高了消费者购物的欲望，因而有些投资者认为梅西百货很可能会在当前环境下表现得很好。晨星公司股票分析师保罗·斯威南德在最近的一份研究纪要中写道：“我们相信梅西百货现在要比经济危机前更强，已经做好了服务美国中产阶层的准备。”虽然有些分析师怀疑这家历史悠久的零售店是否具有显著增长的能力（梅西百货第一季度销售额低于华尔街预期，这主要是寒冬和多雪的缘故），但事实证明，梅西百货的收入增长率是标普500指数公司平均水平的两倍以上——当然这主要是大幅度股票回购带来的结果。目前，梅西百货也在大力扩展网络销售，同时积极向其它零售领域扩张，比如它在今年3月刚刚收购了高档Spa和美容连锁机构Bluemercury，这笔交易也有望促进梅西百货的营收额进一步增长。

摩根大通分析师还指出，梅西百货还坐拥另一庞大的价值资源，即价值超过100亿美元的高端地产，其中就包括了它坐落在曼哈顿先驱广场，与帝国大厦只隔一两栋楼的纽约旗舰店。从很多方面看来，这些门店的地产价值甚至要高于其门店的销售价值。今年，梅西百货将硅谷的一处门店卖给了一家房地产开发商，然后又用租赁的方式将其租了回来。此外，梅西百货的CEO特里·兰格伦还宣布，将在“房地产可以重新用于更有价值的用途”的地方关掉14家门店。

4. Macy's

FORTUNE 500 RANK: 105

5-YEAR TOTAL RETURN: 281%

ESTIMATED EPS GROWTH THIS YEAR: 11.1%

DIVIDEND YIELD: 2.1%

ESTIMATED 2015 P/E: 14.9

An improving economy plus cheaper gas prices adds up to a greater consumer desire to go shopping, and some investors think Macy’s M 0.57% is likely to perform well in the current environment. “We believe Macy's is stronger than it was before the financial crisis and well positioned to serve the American middle class,” Morningstar equity analyst Paul Swinand wrote in a recent research note. While some analysts doubt the historic retailer’s ability to grow significantly (and first-quarter sales came in below Wall Street’s expectations, a result of a cold and snowy winter), Macy’s earnings are growing more than twice as fast as the average S&P 500 company’s—largely the result of bigger share buybacks. The department store is also increasing online sales and expanding into other types of retail, such as with Bluemercury, a luxury spa and beauty retail chain that Macy’s acquired in March and expects to drive more growth.

JPMorgan analysts also note that Macy’s is literally sitting on another big source of value: more than $10 billion worth of prime real estate, including its New York flagship "trophy asset" in Manhattan’s Herald Square, just a couple of blocks from the Empire State Building. And in many cases, the stores' real estate is worth more than their retail sales: Already this year, Macy's has sold one of its Silicon Valley stores to a real estate developer only to lease it back, and also announced plans to close 14 stores "where the real estate can be redeployed to more productive uses," CEO Terry Lundgren said in the announcement.