中国股市恐慌过度了

就在美国正要迎来感恩节后疯狂购物的“黑色星期五”之际，中国A股却扎扎实实地体验了一次悲伤的“黑色星期五”。

今天，沪指重挫逾5%失守3500点，创股灾以来最大单日跌幅，券商板块全线暴跌，创业板大跌逾6%。截至收盘，沪指跌5.48%报3436.3点，成交4643亿元；深成指跌6.31%报11961.7点，成交6785亿元。

实际上，相对A股曾经的最高点，指数目前已经回落了40%，但这基本上说明不了中国的经济增长状况。

没错，中国经济确实在放缓，因此，许多投资者就开始非常担心。美国投资者似乎很容易就会为此类新闻而担惊受怕。美联储9月份决定维持联邦基金利率不变，联储主席珍妮特•耶伦在新闻发布会上就此进行说明时，曾16次直接或间接提到中国。她担心中国经济放缓可能引发连锁反应，从而拖累美国经济增长。许多悲观主义者甚至宣称这意味着“中国故事就此结束”。

可以断定，中国GDP再也不会像过去十年那样以每年约10%的速度增长了。如今7%左右的增速，当然比以前慢，但我们需要正确看待这些数字。2003年，“金砖四国”一词的发明者吉姆•奥尼尔及其高盛团队曾预计，到2015年，中国的实际GDP增长率将只有5.2%；到2017年，这个数字将跌至5%以下。但实际上，中国经济减速并不让人意外，没有哪个经济体能永远以10%的速度增长。回报率会不断下降，而且富裕水平越高，经济增速就越慢。和奥尼尔的预期相比，中国目前的表现已经相当好了。

十年前，中国经济年增速超过10%，当时中国GDP约为2.5万亿美元。这个数字每年都增长2500亿美元左右，相当于美国路易斯安那州或者菲律宾的经济总量。目前，中国GDP增幅约为7%（但GDP总量超过10万亿美元），这实际上等于每年增长出一个宾夕法尼亚州来。这样的发展速度可不是“还行”所能形容的了的。

中国股市确实已从高点回落40%，但这更多的是非理性泡沫破裂后的调整，而非经济放缓的体现。对A股下跌发表评论时，许多分析师都忘了它曾在一年时间里上涨150%。就算最近大幅下滑，但目前A股仍比上年同期高50%。而且，由于多种原因，A股和中国经济增长之间的联系很微弱。

过去20年中国经济飞速发展。然而，除了偶有非理性上涨或回调，A股基本不为所动。今年股市出现调整未必表明中国经济出现了严重问题。A股不会使中国GDP增速放慢，因为股市在中国居民金融资产中占比还不到15%。此外，保证金贷款还不到银行总资产的2%。

有人说，经济放缓将在中国引发严重债务危机，从而造成金融领域混乱，让中国陷入衰退。中国官方数据显示，包括企业和政府在内，中国的总债务约为GDP的180%。有人认为，加上其他政府债务，中国的整体债务/GDP比例可能达到250%。这确实很吓人，但我们还要看看中国的资产情况。据估算，经过30年的增长，中国积累的资产约为GDP的10倍。地方政府融资平台以及影子银行体系估计约占中国GDP的25%-50%，相关改革已经启动，风险正在下降。居民存款接近中国GDP的一半，资产规模巨大，而且资本跨境流动水平仍然有限，在这种情况下，那些想借中国大崩盘来发财的人还得再等很长一段时间了。

看空中国的人还会层出不穷，但中国将再次让他们感到失望。和这些人的说法相反，中国故事远未结束，这个伟大的故事才刚刚翻开一个新的篇章。

Baizhu Chen是南加州大学马歇尔商学院教授。ImaadZuberi是风投公司Avenue Ventures副董事长。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

Contrary to what these people say, the China story is far from over. It’s just the beginning of a new chapter of this great story.

Its stock market has dropped 40% from its peak, but that says little about the country’s economic growth.

China is slowing down. This has caused serious concern for many, as investors across the U.S. seem easily spooked by any news regarding the topic. Just the other week, in her press conference explaining the decision to leave the targeted federal funds rate unchanged, Fed Chief Janet Yellen invoked China 16 times, directly or indirectly. She expressed fears that China’s slowing economy could cause a ripple effect and drag down U.S. growth. Many pessimists even declared this to be the “end of China” story.

Chinese GDP is no longer growing at about 10% per year as it has in the last decade. Today, growth stands around 7%. That’s certainly slower, but we need to those figures into perspective. In 2003, Jim O’Neill, the father of “BRIC,” and his Goldman Sachs GS -0.67% team predicted that by 2015, China’s real GDP growth rate would only be 5.2%, and would drop below 5% by 2017. The slowdown of the Chinese economy was not indeed unexpected. No country can grow at 10% forever. Diminishing returns will kick in and the richer the country is, the slower the growth will be. Judging by O’Neill’s prediction, China is currently doing quite well.

Ten years ago when China was growing at over 10% a year, its GDP was about $2.5 trillion. Every year, China added around $250 billion to its economy, equivalent to adding the GDP of Louisiana, or the Philippines. With GDP growth today at about 7% (or over $10 trillion), China’s economy is essentially creating a new state the size of Pennsylvania every year. This is more than decent.

It is true that China’s stock market has dropped 40% from its peak, but that’s less an indication of China’s slowdown than a correction from an irrationally engineered bubble. When analysts commented on China’s stock market decline, many ignored when it rose by 150% within the last year. Even with the recent stock market turmoil, China’s stock market today is still up by 50% from last year. For many reasons, China’s equity market bears little relationship to its economic growth.

During the last 20 years when China was experiencing rapid growth, its stock market barely budged barring occasional irrational exuberance and correction. The correction of its stock market this year is not necessarily an indication of some serious problems in China’s economy. Its stock market will not drag down its GDP growth rate, given that less than 15% of Chinese household financial assets are in the stock market. What’s more, margin loans are less than 2% of total bank assets.

Some suggest that the slowdown will create a serious debt crisis in China, causing mayhem in the financial world and throw China into depression. The total debt, including corporate and government, is about 180% of GDP, according to the Chinese government statistics. Some argue that by including other governmental obligations, China’s comprehensive debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 250%. This is indeed alarming until one looks at the asset side. It is estimated that China has, after 30 years of growth, accumulated an asset about 10 times of its GDP. Reforms on the local government financing platform and the shadow banking system, which is estimated to be around 25% to 50% of GDP, are already under way. The risk is reducing. With a national savings rate close to 50% of GDP, a huge asset size and still limited international capital mobility, those who want to profit from China’s doomsday situation will have to wait for a long time.

There will be no shortage of pessimists going forward, but China will again disappoint them. Contrary to what these people say, the China story is far from over. It’s just the beginning of a new chapter of this great story.

Baizhu Chen is a professor at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California. ImaadZuberi is vice chairman of Avenue Ventures.