熊来了，巴菲特先生！

进入熊市的迹象：股价较其峰值水平下跌20%。

在过去，沃伦•巴菲特曾预测，相对于其他公司，其公司股票的表现在熊市会比牛市更好。然而这一次，情况并不是这样。

美国主要股指最近再次下跌，尽管这一跌幅还远未达到进入熊市的水平，但对于巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦来说，熊就要来了。具有传奇色彩的伯克希尔股票——其50年以来的表现一直好于标普500（根据其最新的年报）——目前的价格较其2014年12月的峰值水平下跌了近18.5%。最近，该公司股价一度跌至每股187001美元，创一年多以来的新低。熊市一般是指股价较其峰值下跌20%。

这位股神的公司的股票最近一直举步维艰，而进入熊市将成为它另一个不幸的里程碑。2015年，该公司股价的跌幅超过了12%，是2008年以来表现最差的一年。在2008年，该公司股价在整个股市崩盘期间下跌了近32%。

尽管伯克希尔哈撒韦在金融危机期间的表现略好于标普500（2008年暴跌了37%），但是这一次，它却跑输了大盘：标普500自伯克希尔股价2014年12月达到峰值以来仅下跌了9%，其表现超出伯克希尔哈撒韦近10个百分点。

The sign of a bear is a 20% decline from the stock’s peak.

In the past, Warren Buffett has predicted that his performance is likely to be better, relative to everyone else, in bear markets than in bull ones. That hasn’t played out this time around.

While the major U.S stock indexes, which sunk again on Monday, still have to fall significantly farther before they enter bear market territory, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is getting dangerously close. The stock of Berkshire BRK.A -2.30% —legendary for its consistent outperformance of the S&P 500, returning 1,826,163% over 50 years, through its latest annual report—is now trading nearly 18.5% below its high in December 2014. On Monday, the share price fell to $187,001, its lowest point in more than a year. A bear market is usually defined as being down 20% from its peak.

Entering a bear market would be another unfortunate milestone for the Oracle of Omaha’s stock which has struggled recently. Last year, Berkshire Hathaway shares fell more than 12%,their worst annual performance since 2008, when the stock declined nearly 32% amid the overall market crash.

But while Berkshire Hathaway fared somewhat better during the financial crisis than the S&P 500 (which plummeted 37% in 2008), this time, the stock is underperforming the market: The S&P 500 has fallen just 9% since Berkshire’s peak, nearly 10 percentage points better than Buffett’s performance.

然而，值得注意的是，与危机期间不同，公司当前的投资表现并非完全是这位股神的责任，因为巴菲特目前有两位副手——托德•康布斯和泰德•维施乐，他们负责帮助巴菲特打理伯克希尔的投资。

此外，伯克希尔的收入多来自于旗下各大子公司，例如圣达菲北伯林顿铁路公司，而不是其投资组合。与铁路公司一样，其中很多公司的业绩都存在周期性。因此，伯克希尔股价的下跌可能源于投资者对美国经济的担忧。

与此同时，美国其他一些股票的跌幅已经超过了熊市门槛。例如苹果，自8月便正式进入了熊市，目前的股价仍比去年2月的峰值水平低25%。沃尔玛的股票在11月进入了熊市模式，其当前的股价较一年前的峰值下跌了30%。2015年股市的领跑者Netflix在一周多前开始走熊：其股价较去年12月初的峰值水平下跌了27%。

而就版块而言，美国唯一真正进入熊市的板块只有小市值股，也就是市值小于50亿美元的那些公司。小市值企业Russell 2000指数较去年6月的峰值水平下探了23%。还有某些特定的行业股，例如石油和生物科技股，已经深陷熊市数月，主要归咎于能源价格的低迷以及监管因素。

标普Capital IQ公司美国股票策略师山姆•斯托沃在纪要中指出，纳斯达克综合指数较7月的峰值下跌了13%，标普500较5月的历史新高下探了近12%，而且仍“处于下行阶段”。

斯托沃在最新的纪要中写道，在历史上，标普500下跌20%进入熊市用了9个月的时间。目前我们已经到了第8个月的关头，因此按照这一逻辑，标普2月会进入熊市，但那时并非是熊市的终点。斯托沃指出：熊市通常还要经历5个月的时间才会触底，到那时，标普500较其峰值水平的跌幅将超过30%。

一旦触底，股价的恢复将是一个漫长的过程。斯托沃称，熊市的平均恢复期约为两年。然而，如果股市继续在当前的修正范围内波动（即跌幅较其峰值水平大于10%，小于20%），那么前景还能稍微乐观一点：股市可能仅需4个月左右的时间便能从谷底恢复如初。（财富中文网）

译者：冯丰

校对：詹妮

It’s important to note, however, that unlike in the recession years, the Oracle does not shoulder the full responsibility for his investment performance anymore, as Buffett now has two deputies, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, helping him manage Berkshire’s investments. What’s more, Berkshire derives more of its income these days from the various companies it owns, like railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe, than its investment portfolio. And like the railroad, many of those companies tend to be cyclical. So the drop in Berkshire’s stock could be driven by investors’ fears about the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, certain other U.S. stocks have already fallen beyond the threshold of a bear market. Apple AAPL -1.95% , for example, officially entered a bear market in August, and is still down 25% from its peak last February. Walmart WMT 1.21% stock fell into a bear market in November, currently off 30% from its high about a year ago. And Netflix NFLX -1.59% , the best-performing stock of 2015, hit a bear market a little more than a week ago: The stock has fallen 27% since its peak in early December.

Categorically speaking, though, the only U.S. stocks that are actually in a bear market are small-cap stocks, or companies with a market value of less than $5 billion: The Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies has fallen 23% since its high in June. Certain other sectors, such as oil and biotech stocks, have been in a bear market for months, punished by low energy prices and regulatory concerns, respectively.

The Nasdaq Composite index has fallen 13% from its peak in July, and the S&P 500 is down nearly 12% from its May all-time high, though it “remains in a bearish position,” according to a note by Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist for S&P Capital IQ.

Historically, it has taken nine months for the S&P 500 to decline 20% from its peak to reach a bear market, Stovall wrote in a note on Monday. We’re at the eight-month mark now, so by that logic, we could be in a bear market by February. But bears don’t stop there, Stovall points out: the average bear takes another five months to hit bottom, at which point the S&P 500 has fallen more than 30% from its high.

At that point, it will be a long road back to the top: The average bear market took about two years to recover, according to Stovall. But if the market continues to hover in its current correction range (marked by a fall of greater than 10% but less than 20% from its peak), the outlook is a bit sunnier: It should only take four months or so for the market to bounce back from its low.