合伙人如何看待2016年风投市场？

有限合伙人是指投资风投基金的机构和个人。最近，我采访了73位有限合伙人，进一步了解他们对2016年风投市场的看法。我还与其他很多有限合伙人聊了聊，在最近召开的Upfront Summit大会上也找机会交流。下面是沟通后了解到的核心内容：

进入风投市场的资金有所增加

首先，众所周知进入风投市场的资本已经稳步回升至大衰退之前的水平，2015年美国科技行业风投资本的规模接近300亿美元。近来不少风投资本开始撤回在创业企业的投资，引发了不少讨论，但我们采访的有限合伙人都表示向风投注资的节奏不会放缓，至少短期内不会。

Surveying the investors behind the investors.

Limited partners are institutions and individuals who invest in venture capital funds, and I recently surveyed 73 of them to better understand their thoughts on the VC market in 2016. I also had conversations with many more ― including at our recent Upfront Summit ― and what follows is the essence of what I learned:

Dollars into Venture Have Gone Up

As a starting point we know that the dollars into venture have steadily gone back up to pre-Great Recession levels with just under $30 billion committed to U.S. technology venture capital in 2015. While there is much discussion about VCs starting to pull back on their investments into startups, the LPs we surveyed don’t expect to slow the pace of investment into VC funds themselves ― at least not for the foreseeable future.

但是有限合伙人一直处于投资大于回报的状态

有限合伙人一直非常看好风投资本，因为风投手中持有优步和Airbnb等公司的优质股权，相信未来能收获大量现金收益。但是在过去10年中，他们在风投里的投资要远多于收到的回报。事实上，如果计算过去10年中的资本流就会发现，净现金支出接近500亿美元。

But LPs Have Been Putting Out More Money Than They Are Getting Back

LPs have been feeling great about venture capital due to holding valuable paper positions in companies like Uber and Airbnb that they feel confident will drive large cash distributions in the future. But they have been sending VCs way more investment checks in the last 10 years than they’ve gotten back as distributions. In fact, if you add up capital flows of the past 10 years, there has been just shy of $50 billion in net cash outlays.

问题在于，有限合伙人这500亿美元的真金白银套在风投里，没法投向其他资产。这里出现了一个经常被忽视的问题：如果有限合伙人收不回资金，投出的资金又越来越多，最终要么减少对风投的投资，要么被迫增加风投在资产组合中的比例（代价是减少投资其他资产）。

有限合伙人仍坚信风投是一种多元化的回报来源

对于初创企业来说，好消息是有限合伙人仍非常看好能从风投中拿到的长期收益，而且仍在继续投资。在我们采访的73支有限合伙人基金中，只有7%的基金认为，当前的市况下在风投领域投资过多；22%的基金反而有意追加投资。

And that’s real cash that LPs can’t put to work in other asset classes. So one problem often not talked about is that if LPs don’t get money back and accumulate more cash outflows, eventually they will either have to pare back investments into venture or they’ll have to increase the percentage of dollars they allocate to venture (at the expense of other asset classes).

LPs Still Believe Strongly in VC as a Diverse Source of Returns

The good news for startups is that the LPs are still very big believers in the long-term gains they will get from venture and are still allocating capital to the industry. In our poll of 73 LP funds, only 7% felt they were overweight in venture given the current market climate against 22% of the firms who are actually looking to add exposure.

尽管有人称大多数有限合伙人仅愿意投资硅谷的老牌基金，但有证据表明，目前很多人已意识到，一些新面孔也能利用差异化开辟出新的阵地。事实上，40%的有限合伙人称，他们有意投资新基金。

And while there is a narrative that most LPs only want to invest in the long-standing Silicon Valley brands, there is evidence that many now understand that it is possible for new entrants to stake out new grounds of differentiation. In fact, 40% of LPs tell us that they’re looking to add new names to their rosters.

有限合伙人意识到了估值过高的现象，而且不喜欢

然而，并非所有的事情都那么美好。有限合伙人都十分关注媒体最近报道的初创企业估值过高和过度融资现象，而且他们都有亲身经历。调研中约75%有限合伙人表示，对投资节奏、投资狂热和估值十分关注，但到目前为止，只有6%的受访对象表示“非常担忧”。

LPs See The Over-Valuations & Don’t Like It

But all isn’t completely rosy. LPs have followed much of press recently about startup over-valuation and over-funding, and they experience these phenomena first hand. Some 75% of LPs polled said they are concerned about investment pace, burn and valuations ― but, for now, only 6% are “deeply concerned.”

估计在接下来的18个月中，有限合伙人可能会看到另一个2008-09年之后很少出现的情况——估值降低。奇怪的是，越成功的基金可能越快碰到这种情况，因为持有一些新上市公司股份的基金（包括我们的基金）有可能很快因股价调整减计资产。

有限合伙人面临的另一个问题在于，“重回市场”的风投募资速度比过去快了不少。正常来说，业绩很好的风投基金每三年会筹集一支新基金。但在最近几年，一些风投基本上18个月内便会募集新基金。我觉得这一好日子马上就要结束了。61%的受访有限合伙人认为，风投回归市场的速度太快。

I suspect LPs in the next 18 months will see another phenomenon that they likely haven’t seen much since 2008-09: Markdowns. This strangely may come even more quickly in the more successful funds because any fund (ours included) that still holds some public stock from a recent IPO will likely see immediate write-downs due to public stocks being repriced.

Also problematic for LPs is that VC firms have been “back in the market” raising funds more quickly than they have in the past. A normal VC fund raises a new fund every three years if it is a strong performer but, in recent years, there have been some VC firms that have literally raised new funds inside of 18 months. I suspect those days will end soon. 61% of LPs polled said they felt VCs were coming back to market too quickly.