合伙人如何看待2016年风投市场？

最大的担忧集中在后期投资

68%的受采访有限合伙人提到，后期市场估值过高。

看待市场的角度各有不同，有的人看到的是问题，有的人则闻到了商机。一些有限合伙人曾在私下对我说，随着新资金越来越难融，未来18个月专注后期的风投没准能找到营收良好但缺钱的公司，低价买入大量股权捡个大便宜。不过这并不适合实力弱的风投，因为小风投很难谈下项目，即便能进入也很难保证后续顺利进行。但毫无疑问的是，一定有人能赚到钱。

另一个担忧对象是种子投资基金

我还听有限合伙人提到担心种子阶段投资。一种说法是，种子阶段的基金过多而且差异化不强，大部分水平都差不多。另一点让有限合伙人很担心的就是，无论形势好坏，一些种子基金都会出局。市场好时，种子基金没钱继续投资赢家；市场不好时，如果没能提前攒下足够资金维护持股地位，可能会因为在资本重组和清算中没有优先权被迫离场。

The Biggest Area of Concern is in Late-Stage Investments

68% of LPs surveyed expressed caution that that late-stage part of the market is over-valued.

But, of course, for every angle of the market that one person sees caution others spot opportunities. Some LPs have said to me privately that they wonder if later-stage VCs may have a field day in the next 18 months buying up large positions in companies with strong revenue at attractive prices given the new funding squeeze. It’s not an opportunity for the weak of stomach as these deals are hard to get done and even harder to keep on course. But there’s not doubt some will make money.

Another Area of Concern is in the Seed Investor Class

I also have heard LPs express concern about the seed stage. One narrative is that too many funds have been created and, without a strong sense of differentiation, mediocrity will rule. Another big area of concern expressed by LPs is that some seed funds may get “squeezed” in good scenarios and bad. In good scenarios they don’t have funds large enough to follow their winners and in bad markets they can be wiped out by recaps and liquidation preferences unless they save enough reserves to protect their positions.

数据本身便能证明部分担心并非空穴来风。89%的有限合伙人在不同程度上表达了对种子市场的担忧。65%的人表示，他们会投资种子基金，但是会对投资对象精挑细选。有23%的人对于基金的能力表示担忧。例如，大多数有限合伙人认为优秀的种子基金的回报仍然相当不俗，但没法在少数几个名声不错的种子基金里投很多钱。

几年前，业绩最好的几个种子基金通过筹集“机会基金”来应对现金困境，随着后续几轮融资规模的扩大，机会基金可用于投资其中最佳项目。当然，此举引发了一系列问题，例如利益冲突、估值争议以及早期投资者是否有资格投资后期项目等。但是种子投资者和有限合伙人都认为，只要项目得到合理的管理，退出时就能有利可图。支持机会基金的有限合伙人占比达到了惊人的85%，前提是在募集时注重实效和经济效益。

大多数有限合伙人认为传统风投受到排挤

一些较大规模的基金偶尔会提到，业内渐有排挤传统风投基金的迹象。他们表示，一方面，“大型风投基金规模变得更大，可以在各个阶段竞争”，另一方面，“种子投资者的动作比传统风投更快”。坦白地说，我从来不相信。作为一家传统的风投公司，目睹种子基金成长是一件好事，因为能估值的创业公司数量也增加了。此外，我们跟种子基金并肩作战已经很熟练了。

除了少数在一夜间规模暴涨的项目之外，我并没有感到多少大型风投公司加入竞争带来的压力。大风投习惯于向盈利模式明确的企业投资2,000万美元，才不愿意去竞争投资那些盈利模式不怎么明确、仅需400-500万美元的项目。

幸运的是，有限合伙人似乎也认同这点。仅有17%的有限合伙人认同传统风投受到排挤，而34%的有限合伙人倾向于投资传统的A/B轮风投基金。当然，50%的有限合伙人希望将投资合理地分配在各个阶段：种子、传统和成长阶段。

The data itself bears out some of these fears. 89% of LPs surveyed expressed some level of concern about the seed market. 65% said they will invest in seed funds but they are very discerning about which ones they’ll fund and 23% are worried about capacity. Anecdotally, most LPs believe the best seed funds still deliver superior returns to other parts of the market, but they simply can’t put enough dollars to work in the handful they truly respect.

A few years ago the best seed funds responded to the challenge of being cash strapped by raising “opportunity funds,” which can invest in their best deals as the follow-on rounds get larger. Of course this brings up a host of complications about conflicts of interest, valuations and whether early-stage investors are well-suited to invest in later-stage deals. But both seed investors and LPs alike agree that as long as these programs are managed sensibly they are useful to exist. A whopping 85% of LPs were favorable to opportunity funds as long as they were done with a pragmatic approach and with favorable economics.

Most LPs Don’t Believe That Traditional VCs are Being Squeezed

One narrative mentioned occasionally by some of the larger funds is that traditional VCs will be “squeezed.” They say that “the big guys are getting bigger and can compete for the full lifecycle of investments” on one side and “the seed investors are out-hustling traditional VC” on the other side. Frankly, I’ve never believed this argument. As a traditional VC, watching the growth of seeds funds has been a blessing because it increases the total number of startups from which we can evaluate. Also, we’ve become very adept at partnering side-by-side seed funds.

And other than a handful of deals that scale in the blink of an eye, I really haven’t felt too much pressure from bigger VCs moving downmarket into our territory. Funds that are more comfortable writing $20 million checks in proven businesses simply don’t want to also have to write checks and compete for less proven deals in need of $4-5 million.

Luckily LPs seem to agree. Only 17% bought the premise that traditional VCs are being squeezed versus 34% who prefer to focus the majority of their efforts of traditional A/B roundVC funds. And of course 50% want a good balance across all stages: seed, traditional and growth.

有限合伙人生态系统最大的变化可能在于不少在寻求直接投资

过去三年中，欣欣向荣的技术市场和资金纷纷涌入风投领域也催生了一个很少有人关注现象——寻求“直接投资”的资金（就是资金直接进入被投公司而不是投资该公司的基金）的激增。

近40%的受访有限合伙人表示，直接投资正成为投资计划中重要组成部分（17%的人认为是“非常重要”的组成部分），另有44%的有限合伙人已经在见机行事做直接投资。甚至还有基金的基金募资金时主要推广口号就是能提供更好的直接投资渠道。

总结

有限合伙人仍是风投行业的坚定支持者，而且未来一两年看起来会保持稳健的投资节奏（除非市场出现不可预见的负面事件）。

如果风投找不到办法顺利退出，让资本循环起来重新投资，有限合伙人就会受到冲击。如果资金一直无法回流，最终有限合伙人会被拖垮。我认为，在接下来的12-18个月中，风投在整体资产组合中比例下调将成为有限合伙人的谈论焦点；不过，仍然会有很多有限合伙人看好风投，原因跟我一样。每一次调整之后都会出现持续很长时间的技术革新，而利润只会滚滚流入少数赢家的腰包。（财富中文网）

马克•萨斯特(@msuster)是洛杉矶风投资本公司Upfront Ventures的合伙人。

翻译：冯丰

审校：夏林

Perhaps the Biggest Change in the LP Ecosystem is the Number Now Seeking Direct Investments

The booming tech markets and the dollars being allocated in the venture sector has brought about one seldom talked about consequence over the past 3 years ― the sheer number of LP dollars looking for “direct investment” (or dollars going directly into portfolio companies vs. the funds themselves).

Nearly 40% of all LPs surveyed said that direct investments were becoming an important part of their program (17% said they’re very important) and a further 44% of LPs are opportunistically doing direct investments. There are even LP fund-of-funds whose main marketing message when they raise capital is that they provide better access to direct investments.

Summary

LPs remain staunch supporters of the venture capital industry and their investment pace seems likely to hold steady for the next one or two years (barring any unforeseen negative market events).

This support will eventually start to meet headwinds if our industry doesn’t find a way to drive more exits to recycle capital back into the ecosystem. Eventually LPs will become stretched without some cash distributions. I expect the LP conversations in the next 12 to 18 months to be about VC portfolios being inevitably marked down; however, many LPs are long on venture capital for the same reasons I am. Any correction will be followed by the long march of technology disruption and the profits disproportionately allocated to the winners.

Mark Suster (@msuster) is a partner with Los Angeles-based venture capital firm Upfront Ventures.