海外资金回流中国概念股

随着今年2月中国股市跌至四年半以来低点，海外资金正谨慎地向中资股票回流。趁着当前估值较低，海外资金挑选了一些中国经济向消费驱动转型的概念股。

外国投资者试探性地进入的板块都与3月初公布的十三五规划各项主题有关，包括城镇化、消费、互联网增长、绿色发展和创新。

2月12日以来，MSCI中国指数已上涨17%。基金追踪机构EPFR Global的数据显示，虽然外国投资者仍在净卖出中国公司股票，但净抛售规模已从此前4个月的平均每月卖出21亿美元减至3月1日至25日的2.72亿美元。

许多投资者都集中关注特定的“新经济”行业，避开“旧经济”板块，虽然“新经济”相关概念股只占中国股票市场的一小部分。

日兴资产管理有限公司驻新加坡高级证券投资经理Tan Eng Teck指出：“中国经济向消费和服务驱动的增长模式转变过程可能会有些痛苦，其中股市遭受的打击格外严重，因为70-80%的上市公司都高度依赖基建和投资驱动的经济增长模式。”

“不过，另外那20-30%的上市公司正在成长，我们看好这些板块，因为可以保持多年增长。”

中国政府的十三五规划目标是，到2020年新增至少1千万个城镇就业机会，研发投资占GDP的比重达到2.5%，开发替代能源并减少碳排放，以及提高互联网普及率。

Tan看好的板块包括旅游、保险、环境和医疗保健。日兴的中国股票基金和Shenton Greater China Fund持仓最多的中国股票有中国平安、腾讯控股和中国中药。

英国投资机构M&G Investments驻伦敦的全球新兴市场证券投资经理马修•维特说：“M&G Investments把互联网和消费增长主题合二为一，最近买入的股票包括一家在美国上市的在线旅行社。”

M&G Investments全球新兴市场基金持有的前十大个股包括百度和中国移动。

不过，维特担心有些“新经济”个股估值过高。他认为，价值型投资者的机会在“相对乏味但被低估的领域”，比如部分包装和塑料管厂商。

在他看来，银行和大宗商品板块存在价值陷阱。维特警告说，许多陷入困境的“旧经济”公司其实应该破产，银行却还在向这些公司输血。

Tan则担心，钢铁和铝等大宗商品板块虽然估值已经非常低，但由于产能过剩，相关个股的价格可能进一步下跌。

霸菱资产管理亚太区投资总监方伟昌上个月在一份报告中写道，霸菱也看好“中国公司在价值链体系上升过程中受益于消费崛起和配套科技需求增加的个股。”

方伟昌举例说，霸菱投资了一家向香港、深圳和东莞供水的公用事业公司，就是因为看好中国人口进一步增长和环保标准提升。

霸菱还看好中国娱乐公司，预期中国的电影观众和国产电影数量都将上升。

方伟昌说：“近几周股价波动相当剧烈，我们也借此机会重新评估了此前看好但认为股价过高的公司。”（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Global funds are cautiously venturing back into Chinese equities after prices collapsed to 4-1/2-year lows in February, taking advantage of cheaper valuations to buy stocks they believe will benefit from China’s shift to a consumption-led economy.

Foreign investors are tentatively buying in sectors linked to the main themes of the 13th Five-Year Plan released earlier this month, including urbanization, consumption, internet growth, green development and innovation.

The MSCI China index has gained 17% since Feb. 12 and while foreign investors are still net sellers the scale of net selling has shrunk to $272 million from March 1 to March 25 versus an average of $2.1 billion over the previous four months, according to EPFR Global data.

Most investors are focusing on specific “new economy” industries, which make up only a small proportion of the market, while avoiding those sectors linked to the “old economy.”

“China’s transition to a consumption and service-led economy is likely to be a bit painful, and it’s worse for the stock market because 70-80 percent of the market is highly dependent on the infrastructure and investment-led economy,” said Tan Eng Teck, senior portfolio manager at Nikko Asset Management in Singapore.

“But the remaining 20-30% is growing, and we like those sectors because they’re in a multi-year growth phase.”

Beijing’s five-year plan aims to create at least 10 million urban jobs, boost research and development investment to 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2020, develop alternative energy sources and reduce emissions, and expand internet penetration.

Tan’s prefered sectors include tourism, insurance, environment and healthcare. Among the biggest holdings in Nikko’s China equity fund and Shenton Greater China Fund are Ping An Insurance, internet firm Tencent and China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co..

M&G Investments combines the internet and consumption growth themes, with recent purchases including an online travel agency listed in the U.S., said Matthew Vaight, M&G portfolio manager for global emerging markets in London.

Internet firm Baidu and mobile operator China Unicom are among the top 10 holdings of M&G’s Global Emerging Markets fund.

However, Vaight cautions that some “new economy” stocks are overvalued, and sees opportunities for value investors in “relatively dull but under-appreciated areas of the market,” such as some packaging and plastic pipe companies.

Banks and commodity sectors are seen as value traps. Vaight warns that banks are keeping many struggling “old economy” companies going when they should not.

Tan cautions overcapacity in commodities sectors such as steel and aluminum means that prices, despite very low valuations, could yet fall further.

Barings Asset Management also favors “beneficiaries of rising consumption and technological outfitting as Chinese companies move up the value chain,” investment director William Fong said in a note last month.

For instance, Barings is investing in China’s population expansion and improving environmental standards through a utility company that supplies water to Hong Kong, Shenzen and Dongguan, he said.

Barings also likes Chinese entertainment companies, betting on increases in both the number of cinemagoers and locally produced films.

“With share price valuations having moved quite sharply in recent weeks, we have taken the opportunity to reassess companies we previously liked but where we felt the price was too high,” said Fong.