特朗普、市场和经济增长——接下来会发生什么

正如他们在市场上所言，过去的表现并不能保证未来的回报。唐纳德·特朗普出人意料的竞选胜利使得过去几年处于在历史高位的市场陷入混乱之中，道琼斯指数、全球股市和债券急剧下跌，投资者纷纷逃向黄金等安全资产。这实际上并不出人意料。投资者不仅一直担心特朗普担任总统带来的经济影响，而且市场对任何一位新总统带来的不确定性都不欢迎（例如，奥巴马在2008年当选时，美国股市下跌了5％）。选举过后几天，他们通常会反弹（的确如此，在特朗普胜选的几个小时后，市场已经创出新高）。长期来说，他们倾向于更多地对基本经济因素而非政治做出反应（顺便说一句，就政治的影响而言，历史上，民主党往往比共和党对市场更有利）。

但这不是典型的时代，我们的经济未来深深地与政治纠缠在一起。特朗普担任总统将从根本上挑战全球化的未来和资本主义现状。事实上，特朗普出人意料地获得了较高比例的少数族裔以及一些受过大学教育的妇女的投票，这说明经济焦虑不仅仅与收入水平有关。这说明一个事实，即很大一部分人口——不仅仅是密歇根州或俄亥俄州的工厂工人——认为我们有一个被操纵的经济制度，而这个制度过多地惠及美国和全球精英群体。当然，没有人比克林顿家族更能代表精英群体。

从这种意义上来说，特朗普的胜选与英国的脱欧公投非常相似。人们并非只是在对一套明确的政策投票，他们更多的是投票反对已经发生的事情。正如安联集团首席战略家穆罕默德·埃尔-埃里安所言，特朗普的胜选是“愤怒政治的另一个例证，以及对当权者的不信任。这显示出西方经济体在太多年低速和非包容性增长之后，正在面临的压力。结果造成更高的破坏风险，无论是在经济、金融、制度还是政治方面。”

那么，这在短期、中期和长期将对市场和经济产生什么影响呢？在接下来的几周，你会看到很多想不到的波动。市场从来不曾擅长预测民粹主义，因为在其中进行交易的主要是精英。市场将起伏不定，而这取决于特朗普会传达怎样的信息。如果我们能够在他的提名演讲中看到更多相对平衡的语气，那么我们将看到上涨。 如果你听到围绕贸易、移民等问题的民粹主义言论，市场就会下跌。投资者感受到的不确定性会放大任何一点点坏消息。如果下一轮就业数据疲软，或者中国制造业数据显得疲弱，或者看起来意大利银行可能会爆发危机，那么市场将会出现比以前更为强烈的反应。所以，要小心，因为接下来将是不平静的几周。

除此之外，投资者还会寻找特朗普担任总统所带来的真正政策影响的迹象。比如，很可能如果奥巴马总统试图在卸任前的任期内推动TPP贸易协议，那么特朗普会利用这个机会来激化贸易话题和将中国列为货币操纵者。这可能会刺激原来已经不稳定的新兴市场的资本外流，如墨西哥（比索像20多年前一样疲软）。虽然美国可能能够经受住这样的危机，但其他亚洲国家可能最终会在偿还债务问题上遇到麻烦，而这可能会引发全球资产价格崩溃的多米诺效应。毕竟，世界上现有的债务要比2008年之前多，而且其中很多债务是由新兴市场国家持有，并与美元挂钩。

毫无疑问，作为更为强劲的复苏的最大希望（思路是，随着经济回暖，他们会再次开始消费），美国企业和消费者将会未雨绸缪。信心可能会下降，企业和消费者支出也会下降。今年美国增长率达到2％的可能性很小，更不用说特朗普在竞选活动中所承诺的4％增长率。这对世界来说是个坏消息，因为美国仍然是全球经济增长的引擎。你可能会看到在过去几年中我们所看到过的趋势会重演，美国股票会成为一种避风港，成为全球经济这块丑陋的地块上最漂亮的房子。但这可能仅仅意味着其比其他市场可能遭受的损失更小些，而非重现过去几年的增长。增长缓慢的新时代已经开始。如果特朗普兑现他在过去一年所做的承诺——缺乏资金支持的减税、关税、移民壁垒以及大量背后没有任何真正建设性的工作创造作用的经济民粹主义——那么他担任总统期间，使经济增长会进一步放缓。（财富中文网）

翻译：Charlie

审校：詹妮

As they say in the markets, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Donald Trump’s surprise presidential victory has turned the markets, which have run at record highs for the last few years, upside down, with precipitous drops in the Dow, global stocks, bonds, and a flight to safety assets like gold. That’s actually not surprising. Not only have investors long feared the economic implications of a Trump presidency, but markets never like the uncertainty of a new president (the U.S. stock market fell 5% when Obama was elected in 2008, for example). A few days after an election, they usually rebound (indeed, just a few hours after the Trump victor, markets are already gaining back a bit of what they’ve lost). Longer term, they tend to respond more to fundamental economic factors rather than politics (btw, to the extent that politics matter, Democrats tend to be better for markets historically than Republicans).

But these are not typical times, and our economic future is deeply entangled with politics. A Trump presidency fundamentally challenges the future of globalization and status quo capitalism. Indeed, the fact that Trump grabbed an unexpected share of minority vote, as well as some college educated women, speaks to the fact that economic anxiety is about more than just income levels. It’s about the fact that a large percentage of the population—not just factory workers in Michigan or Ohio—feels that we have a rigged economic system that disproportionately benefits the U.S. and global elite. And of course, no one epitomized that elite more than the Clintons.

In this sense, the Trump victory is quite similar to the U.K.’s “Brexit” vote to leave the European Union. People aren’t voting for a clear set of policies so much as they are voting against what’s come before. As Allianz chief strategist Mohamed El-Erian put it to me, Trump’s victory is, “yet another illustration of the politics of anger, and of the mistrust in the establishment. It speaks to the stress and strains that western economies are experiencing in the aftermath of too many years of low and non-inclusive growth. The result in a higher risk of breakage, be it economic, financial, institutional or political.”

So what does that mean for the markets, and the economy, in the short, medium, and long term? For the next few weeks, you’ll see plenty of–surprise!–volatility. The markets, which have never been great at predicting populism since the people trading in them are mainly elites, will be up and down depending on how Trump communicates. If we see more of the relatively balanced tone of his acceptance speech, we’ll see gains. If you hear populist rhetoric around trade, immigration and so on, the markets will dip. The uncertainly investors feel will magnify any small bit of bad news. If the next round of jobs numbers comes in soft, or Chinese manufacturing figures look weak, or it seems as though Italian banks might blow up, the markets will react more strongly than they have previously. So, buckle in, as it will be a bumpy few weeks.

Beyond that, investors will be looking for signs of what real policy implications of a Trump presidency will be. It’s quite likely for example that if President Obama tries to push through the TPP trade agreement in a lame duck session, Trump would use this an opportunity to inflame trade rhetoric and brand China a currency manipulator. That could galvanize the flight of capital from emerging markets that has already destabilized, for example, Mexico (the peso is as weak as its been in over 20 years). While that country can probably weather such a storm, other Asian nations could end up having trouble servicing debt, which might then set off a domino effect of collapsing global asset prices. There is, after all, more debt out there in the world than there was before 2008, and much of it is held by emerging market nations, and pegged in dollars.

There’s little doubt that American businesses and consumers, which had been the best hope for a stronger recovery (the thinking being that as the economy strengthened, they’d once again start spending), will batten down the hatches. Confidence will likely fall, as will both corporate and consumer spending. There’s little chance US growth will hit 2 % this year–let alone the 4 % Trump promised on the campaign trail. That’s bad news for the world, since the US is still the global economic growth engine. You might see a replay of the trend we’ve seen over the last several years, where US stocks become a kind of safe haven, the prettiest house on the ugly block that is the global economy. But that will likely mean simply less losses than other markets might suffer–rather than the gains of the last few years. A new era of slower growth has already begun. And if Trump delivers what he’s promised over the last year–unfunded tax cuts, tariffs, barriers to immigration and a large dose of economic populism without any real constructive job creating policy behind it–his presidency will make it slower still.