印度经济玩自爆，GDP料将下滑

就在唐纳德·特朗普成功当选美国总统让权威专家们大跌眼镜的同一天晚上，印度总理纳伦德拉·穆迪也抛出了一枚重磅炸弹： 印度500和1000卢比面值的钞票，将在一夜之间变成“一文不值的废纸”。穆迪宣布，这两种面值（分别价值约7.37美元和14.74美元，占印度货币的86%）的钞票将停止流通。印度国民需要在12月30日之前，将旧钞换成新钞。

穆迪警告称，这两种面值的货币突然停止流动，可能会带来短暂的痛苦，而事实也确实如此： 印度不止没有准备好新面值的钞票，国内为数不多的ATM机也没有做好准备。这些机器需要经过重新配置，才能处理新钞。由于数以百万计的印度人要在银行排队等待数天时间（甚至有报道称，有数十人因为排队死亡），导致国内经济完全陷入了停滞。现金短缺导致其他人选择了以物易物，而高盛（Goldman Sachs）将印度2017年的GDP预期下调了1.5%。

对于该方案能否实现最初的目的——消灭逃税的“黑钱”，以打击腐败，许多人持怀疑态度。不过，该行动还有另外一项好处： 印度90%的交易为现金交易，而现金不足催生了其他交易方式的诞生。比特币和数字支付使用率大幅提高（不足2%的印度人持有信用卡）。或许，印度将由此走上成为更高效的无现金经济的道路——不过这个过程必然充满崎岖。（财富中文网）

作者：Erika Fry

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

The same night that Donald Trump stunned pundits and became America’s President-elect, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi dropped a bomb of his own: At midnight, his country’s 500- and 1,000-rupee notes would become “worthless little slips of paper.” He was taking those notes (worth about $7.37 and $14.74, respectively), amounting to 86% of India’s currency, out of circulation. Indians were given until Dec. 30 to swap their old bills for new ones.

Modi warned that the surprise demonetization might involve short-term pain, and it has: The new bills weren’t ready, nor were the nation’s few ATMs, which had to be reconfigured to distribute them. The economy all but ground to a halt as millions spent their days waiting in bank lines (dozens, according to reports, died doing so). The cash crunch has led others to resort to bartering, and Goldman Sachs has shaved 1.5% from its 2017 GDP forecast for India.

Many are skeptical the scheme will achieve its original aim—eradicating the untaxed “black money” that fuels corruption. But there’s another likely benefit: 90% of transactions in India involve cash, and the lack of it has boosted alternatives. Bitcoin and digital payment use have surged (fewer than 2% of Indians have credit cards). India may be on the way to a more efficient, cashless economy—it’s just going to be a bumpy ride.