牛市第八年，华尔街分析师谨慎看好

截至上周四，美国的牛市已经持续了八年。这比大部分专家预测的要长得多，也超出了华尔街几个月前的预期。

今年仅过去两个月，标普500（S&P 500）指数就已经达到甚至超过了华尔街许多顶尖公司预测的2017年全年目标。去年12月，彭博社（Bloomberg）调查了美国许多重量级证券公司的分析师，得出的预测是标普500指数会涨到2,340点——在今年年底。

而2017年至今，标普500指数已经上涨了超过6%，在3月1日最高曾达到2,396点，超过了预测数值。（之后指数略有下滑，上周三收盘时为2,363点。）特朗普总统上台后，股指的增长已经持续了很长时间，这一段时期势头甚至更甚。去年11月起，因为特朗普承诺减轻企业税负，放松政策，标普500指数的涨幅达到了11%。

整体来看，自2009月3月9日跌至当日最低值666点以来，标普500指数涨幅高达255%。根据摩根资产管理（J.P. Morgan Asset Management）的研究，历史经验来看，从低谷至高点，牛市的平均持续时间为四年半。

现在的问题是，这次牛市还将持续多久？已经有许多股市巨头认为，股指恐怕即将迎来下跌。尽管今年头两个月涨势强劲，但受访的很多证券公司并未大幅调整，甚至根本没有调整年终预测，这表明他们估计市场已经达到或接近今年的高点。

彭博社3月再次对证券公司进行了调查，他们对2017年的预测仅提高了10点至2,350点（低于股市现在的水平）。例如，巴克莱银行（Barclays）就没有调整他们2,400点的预期，不过他们把2017年的综合每股收益从127美元上调到了130美元。瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）和瑞士联合银行（UBS）去年12月预测今年年底的标普500指数为2,300点，他们依旧坚持自己对股指和每股收益率的推断。

接受调查的机构中，也有一些对股市更为乐观。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）把预测上调了200点至2,600点。美国银行（Bank of America）也上调了150点，他们现在估计指数将在年底达到2,450点。

标普500指数是否继续上扬，很大程度取决于特朗普经济政策的效果。目前市场的热情，建立在特朗普将成为企业利好的推测之上，不过最大的问题在于他想要推行的政策——包括废除《可支付医疗法案》和税法改革——能否获得国会的通过。此外，税法的改变最早也得到2018年才能看到效果，如果目前的牛市已经把希望寄托在这些改变上，恐怕用不了多久股市的涨速就将减缓。希望总比绝望好，不过某些情况下实用主义才能笑到最后。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

The current bull market in stocks celebrates its 8th anniversary on Thursday. That run has lasted far longer than most experts predicted—and it has gone farther than Wall Street forecasters expected just a few months ago.

We’re barely two months into the year, and the S&P 500 has already reached or surpassed the full-year expected targets for 2017 set by many of Wall Street's top firms. In a Bloomberg survey from December of analysts from many of the nation’s heavy-hitting brokerages, the median forecast pegged the S&P 500 to be sitting at 2,340—at the end of this year.

The index has already surpassed that mark, rising more than 6% so far in 2017 to peak at 2,396 on March 1. (It has since retreated a bit, closing Wednesday at 2,363.) This has been the acceleration of a longer surge that took hold after President Trump was elected. Since November, investors have driven the S&P 500 up 11% on the back of Trump’s promises to cut corporate taxes and ease regulations.

Overall, the S&P 500 is up 255% since hitting an intraday low of 666 on March 9, 2009. Historically, the average bull market has lasted four-and-a-half years from trough to peak, according to research from J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Now the question is how much longer the current bull will continue. And it appears many large players in the stock markets are already anticipating some sort of pullback relatively soon. Despite the sharp growth in the market in January and February, many of the brokerages surveyed haven’t adjusted their year-end forecast upward very much, if at all, indicating they feel the market is either at or very near its peak for the year.

The median forecast for 2017 rose only 10 points, to 2,350 (below the market's current level), when Bloomberg surveyed analysts again in March. Barclays, for example, hasn’t budged off its target of 2,400, though it has moved its combined 2017 earnings per share estimate for the companies in the index up from $127 to $130. Credit Suisse and UBS, which both forecast 2,300 in December, have not changed their predictions for the index’s level or earnings per share.

There are some more optimistic views among those surveyed. Deutsche Bank has raised its forecast 200 points, to 2,600, and Bank of America has added 150 points to its prediction, bringing its estimate to 2,450.

Whether or not the S&P 500 continues its rise is likely to heavily depend on the impact of Trump’s economic agenda. The market’s run has been fueled by speculation that Trump will be a boon for business, but the biggest elements of his policy wish list—including the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and his tax reforms—have uncertain prospects in Congress. What's more, any changes in tax law wouldn’t go into effect until 2018 at the earliest; if the current bull run is factoring in those changes already, then a slowdown in the stock surge may not be far away. Hope is better than despair, but at some point pragmatism may win out.